If shanghai's used room is closed in march, it'll cost over 30,000
What's the concept
Recently participated in the shanghai economic internal conference
One of the leaders found me privately and told me a key figure: shanghai's used room this month is likely to break 30,000
I've heard that number. It's been too long
What's the concept of 30,000 sets in the used room
This must be an exaggerating number
When i started, my master told me that you could just keep an eye on the numbers in the used room in shanghai
20,000 units per month
If the deal is three months in a row, less than 20,000, the market could start to get cold
If it lasts more than 20,000 for three months, the heat's good
20,000 sets of essentially a benchmark for shanghai city. Line
That's why the city can get 30,000 of them
I don't remember a few months from shanghai city
Okay, so when we get the data
And
01
In fact, since december last year, the whole shanghai city has been doing well
The second-hand chamber has been kept high
The first change, actually, is a positive change
Second-hand markets are unstable because they sell more houses than they buy
There's always a dump in the industry. The second-hand room is sold more and more
By exaggerating, market data climbed to 170,000
There are about 150,000 of them
After months of dealing, the whole roll fell to 130,000
This drop in data is a direct result of the less and less panic attacks
Market anxiety is much less
That's the key
Besides, for this used house market, the bottom of the whole deal is being quickly locked in
Shanghai has for some time been a hot, high-heat, leading to instability in the used-room market
But this round of 30,000 sets, the most in the bottom
The worst and most anxious of all, we're now in jail
This part of the deal accounts for 70% of the market
This time, seven of the tweezers directly stimulate this demand
Most of the outsiders are meeting the demand in shanghai
Third, there's no doubt that the market is getting hotter
It's a simple measure. The 30,000 set means how much is in the city a month. Money
With a minimum set of 2 million, it's also $6 billion
It's trillions of dollars a year
This is the time when shanghai's hot and expensive
Lower down payment leads directly to bank money going to real estate
As you may note, there was a relatively low-profile policy for commercial housing, and the down payment rate went from 50% to 30%
It's essentially the same thing
As i've always stressed to you
As long as the second-hand room is liquid, as long as the money is active in the city, there will be no major foam risk in the market
02
All right, let's be optimistic
What about objectivity
To be happy with the data, and to see the real side behind the data
30,000 sets are a really great number
And shanghai's been in business for six months
Well..
Can we just say the city's warmed up
I don't know yet
One important reason is that the city's judgment has changed
Why did you think 20,000 sets were a baseline
One important criterion is that 20,000 units this month correspond to around 80,000 sets
The core judgment is that the market can afford months of evaporation
Keep it 3-4 months and the market is relatively stable
As shanghai city has always been healthy, it's basically healthy at 20,000 or so
People are used to that number
But now the number of names in the building has changed
Even if it goes back to 130,000 now, it's still higher
That's why it's been a long time since the average monthly deal was 20,000, but the market still doesn't feel the underlying cause of the heat
It's still a big deal
If it's 130,000, if it's 30,000 a month after that
It'll take more than four months to get out
So the city is not hot enough
So the next key indicator is..
If the whole roll goes down to about 100,000, then the city's cold winter is completely out of our reach
03
But in another dimension, i'm very confident that the whole 2026 roll back to 100,000
One important reason
It's just that there's been a change in market standards for second-hand houses
Now there's an investment in a two million-dollar buying house on the market. Guests
This type of investor is different from all previous investors
They don't pay much attention to fluctuations in house prices
Even accept the continued decline in prices
But they're still concerned about the rental of the house. That's right
For them, they buy long-term returns on what they expect from small, old assets
That's rent income
One important reason is..
Now there are almost no investment products on the market at too high an interest rate
It means a house instead of a bank
As long as the rental ratio is over 1%, the overall return is enough for them
And that's why these guys are the first to show up at less than 2 million
The first is because the total price is controlled, the second is whether the houses or the city's core, just a simple renovation. Down
The overall rent return is still very substantial
So investors at this time are concerned about rent-to-sale ratios being too volatile, and this trend has led to a lot of long demand
It's actually an important reason why shanghai is now willing to buy back used rooms
We followed seo-seok's move to buy back some used rooms
We found the whole buy-back price very close to the real used room
Even some are above the market offer
It's based on their calculations from the rental ratio
The whole used room in shanghai is warmed up
This will drive the market into new demand
Future investors are no longer just about price
More surplus properties will enter the rental market to maintain supply, thus becoming another ecological balance
04
That's all the cards
So there's only one problem left in shanghai city
It's when old-fashioned small demand accounts for the majority of them
So if this part of the client re-enters the market and buys a house
That's the key
It also determines whether the chain of transmission in the building is possible to move from bottom to bottom
It's the only way the city can be completely warmed up
It represents an overall recovery in confidence
Without such a chain of conductors, market demand will eventually run out
The situation is clear. The low gross price is moving fast. The biggest problem before the market is solved
We need to see if this part of the demand has been uploaded
First, there's a preliminary conclusion
Has it started
Not yet
I focused on a few second-hand rooms with a total service price of about 10 million
Will it be uploaded
It's possible, but it takes time
05
I know that shanghai's words are of daily concern to all leaders
So seriously
Now all attention to the market and policy needs to be focused on changing the crowd
If after three months the market's total heat level is only 2 million
Then it's a bad signal
That means the chain is broken, and the old client is never back in the building. City
I'd really like to make a suggestion
As long as the customers who buy and sell both in six months, i think the entire transaction tax is reduced
Including customers buying and selling houses at the same time
Let's encourage people to change rooms
I encourage you to move up
I've figured out the ad: using an intermediary fee to buy and sell it
As long as this part of the population's needs are activated, the whole city will be warmed up
06
Then go back to the question at the beginning of the title
There's no doubt that the whole deal is solid, and whether or not the house price is stable depends on when the chain is completely broken
In shanghai, individual units have a life cycle of over three months
The overall market heat is currently running over a three-month cycle, with the total price of one layer going up
If it works
It starts with 5 million, then 8 million, then 10 million
Then step by step
It's gonna take the whole chain to go through 2026
I've been able to predict when the used room in shanghai will be in place, and the year when the house prices will warm up will be january 2027
Let's put it here. We'll take it out next january. Down
07
So, what's the city like
Well, we should be happy about the toughest old switchboard problem, and now we've got enough purchasing power, with the cancellations and the decline in the house price
And the rest of it still takes time to wait
But anyway, spring is here
Remember to go out and smell flowers
