Analysis of price fluctuations of feed raw materials and projections of future trends (including detailed data on 12 raw materials, such as maize/peastal/wheat)
I. Analysis of the current status of feed feedstock prices (as of september)
1. 1 comparative trends in prices of major raw materials
(1) corn prices: affected by a reduction in north-east spring maize production, averaged $285 per ton in september, an increase of 12. 3 per cent over the previous year
(2) soybean prices: brazilian soybean exports surged with an average price of $4280 per ton in september, a decline of 5. 8 per cent in ring ratio
(3) wheat prices: eu extreme weather pushed up international food prices at an average of $3120 per ton in september, an increase of 9. 1 per cent over the same period
(4) fish powder prices: peru's upper-middle fish stock decreased with an average of $18,500 per ton in september, an increase of 23. 6 per cent over the same period
(5) tritium prices: excess by-product supply, averaged 980 yuan per ton in september, an 8. 4 per cent decrease over the same period
1. 2 regional price differences
(table: comparison of maize prices in major areas of the country)
Northern china: $2820/t (2. 1% below national average)
Yellow cui region: $2890 per ton (14. 7 per cent increase over the same period)
South-west region: $295/ton (import substitution effects visible)
Ii. Core drivers of price volatility
2. 1 international market linkages
(1) 38 per cent increase in soybeans exports per year in brazil (september data from the general customs administration)
(2) the volume of wheat exports in the black sea region decreased by 21 per cent each year (report by fao)
(3) international fish powder price index (ifpi) reported $282 per ton in september, up to a high in the year
2. 2 structural contradictions between domestic supply and demand
(1) reactivate in may of the maximum number of piglets (september data from the ministry of agriculture and rural development)
(2) a decrease of 8. 3 per cent in the number of meat chickens in comparison to the year (china livestock association)
(3) demand for aquatic feed increased 12. 7 per cent over the same period (national association of feed industry)
2. 3 policy and regulatory impact
(1) adjustment of the policy of subsidies for the deep processing of maize (ministry of finance communication august)
(2) phase relief of import duties for bean bean bean (official gazette of the general customs administration, 15 september)
(3) impact of environmental restrictions on poultry farming (september special inspection by the ministry of ecology)
Iii. Modelling price projections for priority raw materials
3. 1 corn prices (-)
(1) short term (q4): 2,700-3,000 yuan/tonne of projected fluctuations affected by food deliveries at auction
(2) medium term(s): expected resumption of northeast spring maize production at average price or return to $2,600/ton
(3) long term (): growth in demand for biofuels, supporting prices of not less than $275/ton
3. 2 price of beans (-)
(1) brazilian soybean production forecast: 165 million tons (usda report september)
(2) forecast of arrivals: q42. 2 million and q13 million
(3) alternative protein development: a 15 per cent increase in vegetable seed production over the same period (china vegetable oil association)
Iv. Farmer coping strategies
(1) energy feed substitution: recommended ratio of wheat replacement maize to 15-20%
(2) protein source combination: bean + seed + fish = 55 + 25 + 20 % gold that's right
(3) amino acid balance: lysine increase to 1. 2 - 1. 5%
4. 2 procurement risk management
(1) futures hedge: recommended 50 per cent hedge around $2,800/ton yes
(2) long-term agreements: 3-6 month price lock-in contracts with traders
(3) stockpile management: maintenance of 15-20 days of safe stock
Early warning of prices for the next 12 months
5. 1 four-quarter price projections
(1) corn: 2850 in october and 2750 in november and 2,700 in december
(ii) beans: $4,200 in october, $4,100 in november and $4,000 in december)
(3) fish powder: $18,500 in october and $18,800 in november and $19,000 in december
5. 2 price turning points
(1) year of soybean production in brazil: q2 price expected to drop by $4,000/ton
(2) eu carbon tariff implementation: possible high import cost of fish powder 8-12%
(3) domestic environmental monitoring and regularization: 10-15 per cent expected to phase out behind production capacity
Data* source and updated description
