Guizhou hair pig prices today are interpreted in depth: volatility trends and market projections required of farmers
Attention, guizhou breeders! Today, october 25, the average price of a pig in the province has fluctuated. We have compiled real-time data from 17 districts in the province to show you the bottom of the market
I. Purpose of purpose today
(attached: price distribution for 17 main production areas, such as guiyang, compliance, and 6 water sets)
1. Southern ming of guiyang city: 26. 8-27. 2 yuan (+0. 5)
2. Conformity: 25. 9-26. 3 yuan (stable)
3. West su district, anshun city: $27. 1-27. 5 (recognizing the province)
Bronze ren city: 24. 8-25. 2 yuan
5. Kawa county, south-east province: $26. 5-27. 0 (most volatile)
In particular, it is recommended that attention be paid to the policy of follow-up to the closure of the 7th star area of the city of vishu due to environmental inspection
Ii. Three core factors for price volatility
1. Supply-side mutations:
- a surge in out-of-provincial transfers (average of 320,000 tons in september and 48,000 tons in october)
- 5. 3 per cent reduction in the proportion of locally capable pigs and pigs (agricultural rural office data)
- a sharp decline in the willingness of farmers to supplement the field (28 per cent less than the same year)
2. Uneven consumption-end cold and heat:
- the retail price of pork is maintained between 26. 5 and 28 yuan (3. 2 per cent increase over the same period)
- 15 per cent reduction in the procurement of hotpots (accord study)
- 42% increase in fresh power provider channels (boxes/tink data)
3. Policy leverage:
- environmental upgrading
- volatilization of feed costs (circle + 1. 8 per cent)
- livestock insurance coverage exceeded 75 per cent (up to 30 per cent of government subsidies)
Iii. Models for predicting the next 30 days
(based on sample data for 2000+ farmers)
1. Short term (7 days):
- continued supply pressure (an estimated 850,000 tonnes out)
- $24. 5-27. 5 average price shock zone
- focused monitoring: environmental monitoring progress, feed transport costs
2. Medium (15 days):
- roundup of patches (projected ring + 8%)
- the average price is set at 26-28
- key turning point: the pickle season started in november
3. Long term (30 days):
- end-of-year consumption season (15 per cent increase in daily demand)
- average price exceeded 28%
- risk warning: enhanced monitoring of african swine plague
Iv. Guidelines for farmers'survival
1. Three elements of cost control:
- vaccination programme (respiratory disease control)
- smart ring-control system (30% electricity savings)
Upgrading of distribution channels:
- establishment of community groups for direct supply (5-8 yuan premium)
- development of pre-fabricated vegetables for advanced processing (additional value increase by two times)
- prefabricated vegetable exchanges (40 per cent increase in average monthly orders)
Policy dividend capture:
- applications for subsidies for environmental rehabilitation (up to $500,000)
- participation in the insurability of porks (30% government subsidy)
- declaration of green farming demonstration grounds (tax relief)
Analysis of typical cases
Big brother biscular farmer (200 heads of column):
- operation: to eliminate 15 flat pigs and turn to the two-dollar mother
- result: average monthly cost savings of $12,000
- recommendation: establishment of a customer classification system (large client vip service)
2. General li (5,000 head size) of rangeland for compliance:
- innovation: construction of manure power stations (1. 2 million degrees per year)
- gains: reduced electricity expenditure of 600,000 per year
- reminder: attention to the maintenance costs of power stations ($80,000 per year)
Vi. Risk warning and response
1. Environmental high pressure persistence:
- expansion of priority areas (guiyang, six water sets)
- recommended early deployment of biodegradable feed (cost increased by 5 per cent but compliance)
2. Forage price fluctuations:
- establishment of a strategic reserve (recommended reserve for 3 months)
- substitution of vegetable seeds (due to toxin control)
3. Asymmetrical market information:
- joining the pork union
- customized daily daily newspaper (week plus expert reading)
The market is currently in the phase of "ice fire" and it is recommended that farmers:
1. Short-term: control of column tempo (avoid blind clearance)
2. Medium term: upgrading of the disease prevention system (focusing on the control of paratrooper pneumonia)
Long-term: layout deep processing (extended industrial chain)
Annex: comparison of the cost of farming in october (in dollar/head)
The project, the traditional model, the intellectual transformation, the savings rate
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Forage costs 4500 | 4200 | 6. 7%
Epidemic costs 800 500 37. 5%
Labour costs | 3000 | 1500 | 50%
Electricity expenditure 1200 600 50%
Total cost | 9500 | 8300 | 12. 6%
Guizhou hair pig prices today are interpreted in depth: volatility trends and market projections required of farmers
Guizhou hair pig prices today are interpreted in depth: volatility trends and market projections required of farmers
