On 16 april, the national institute of statistics published changes in the prices of 70 large and medium cities in march 2024. In march, the second-hand chamber continued to fall. It is known that this is a three-month continuous decline in the new house ring ratio. According to a circular issued jointly by the central bank and the former bank superintendence of banking insurance, the establishment of new cities with declining prices for the sale of goods and housing for three consecutive months could be phased in, reduced or eliminated from the lower limit of the policy on the interest rate on the first local housing loan。
So, does the fats implement that policy? In response, the industry has analysed the fact that more than a dozen cities in the country have now announced the removal of the lower limit of the local interest rate on first home loans. In its view, it is possible to implement the policy in order to support the population's rigidity and to improve sexual housing needs。
In march, the second-hand chamber continued to fall
In march, the sale price of new consumable commodity houses fell by 0. 2 per cent. In march, the largest decline in the market price ratio of 90 square metres and below was observed for small households, or 0. 7 per cent; the price of medium-sized households, or 0. 2 per cent, of 90 to 144 square metres; and the price of large households, or more, was equal。
In march, the sale price of used joint-fat housing decreased by 0. 3 per cent. In the case of sub-households, in march, 90 to 144 square metres of second-hand homes were reduced by the largest 0. 4 per cent of average household prices; 90 square metres and below by 0. 3 per cent of small household prices; and over 144 square metres by 0. 1 per cent of large household prices。
In other cities in the province of anhui, the prices of new commercial houses and second-hand residential sales decreased by 0. 4 per cent and 0. 7 per cent, respectively, in march. In march, the price ratio of new and second-hand residential constructions fell by 0. 6 per cent。
Prices of residential sales for urban goods increased by year
In march 2024, the exchange of new and second-hand residential housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased over the previous period, with a slight contraction and an increase in the year-on-year decline in the price of urban residential sales on all lines。
In march, the price of new residential housing in front-line cities decreased by 0. 1 per cent, by 0. 2 percentage points less than last month. The price of new residential housing in cities on the second and third lines decreased by 0. 3 per cent and 0. 4 per cent, respectively, the same as last month. Second-hand residential selling prices in front-line cities decreased by 0. 7 per cent, by 0. 1 percentage points less than last month. Second- and third-line urban secondary housing prices decreased by 0. 5 per cent, by 0. 1 percentage points, compared to the previous month。
In march, the prices of new residential housing in front-line cities decreased by 1. 5 per cent over the same period, an increase of 0. 5 percentage points over the previous month. Prices for new residential housing in cities on the second and third lines decreased by 2. 0 per cent and 3. 4 per cent, respectively, a decrease of 0. 9 and 0. 7 percentage points, respectively, over the previous month. Second-hand residential sales prices in front-line cities decreased by 7. 3 per cent over the same year, an increase of 1. 0 percentage points over the previous month, including 6. 4 per cent, 6. 9 per cent, 8. 6 per cent and 7. 4 per cent in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen, respectively. Second- and third-line urban secondary housing prices decreased by 5. 9 per cent and 5. 7 per cent, respectively, and by 0. 8 and 0. 6 percentage points, respectively, over the previous month。
Experts: increased demand for “old for new”
According to zhang bo, director of the house of tenants, the prices of housing in the cities along the various lines remained low overall. In terms of new housing, however, the decline in first-line urban housing prices has been markedly narrow, and stability has improved in beijing and shanghai. However, from the second-hand room, the first-line urban ring is more visible than the bottom line. In combination with the increase in the exchange of second-hand houses in the first-line cities, the “price-for-money” dimension is broader. The continued increase in second-hand house listings has also led to an overall oversupply of the market。
According to zhang bo, in march there were more policies in the real estate market, including a reduction in the provident fund and interest rates, which in itself boosted market confidence. However, the provident fund policy itself is an accompanying policy, which accelerates entry for home buyers and has little direct effect on the entry of potential populations. “the future looks more forward to `old for new', and it can play a more direct role in increasing demand.” zhangbo says。
Industry: possible removal of the lower limit of the policy on the interest rate on local first home loans
In january this year, the proportion of new homes with fertilizers fell by 0. 6 per cent, or 0. 6 per cent, over the same period; in february this year, the proportion of new houses with fertilizers fell by 0. 3 per cent, or 1. 2 per cent, over the same period; and in march this year, the proportion of new fertilizers fell by 0. 2 per cent, or 1. 7 per cent, over the same period。
According to the circular on the establishment of a dynamic readjustment longer effect mechanism for the policy of newly granted individual housing loans, issued jointly by the central bank and the former bank superintendency on 30 december 2022, the lower limit of the local policy on the interest rate of first home loans can be maintained, lowered or cancelled on a phased basis for the construction of new cities with declining prices for the sale of residential goods in the ring and three consecutive months。
Would the fats then remove the lower limit on the interest rate on the first home-based commercial personal housing loan? In interviews with journalists, industry experts have stated that the removal of the lower interest rate on first-class mortgages meant that banks were issuing commercial personal mortgages for first-class housing instead of being bound by the floor of the fixed interest rate, the amount of the loan rate can be determined more flexibly, depending on market conditions, the credit position of the borrower, etc. In the light of the current real estate market situation, there is a risk of lowering or eliminating the lower limit of the local policy on first-rate housing loans in order to support the population's rigid and improved demand for housing。
It is noteworthy that, since april, the number of municipalities with a floor interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the phased cancellation of first homes has shown a marked increase. More than a dozen cities, including qingdao, nanchang, chinin, tsaizhou, pitao, tsumi, etc., have announced the phasing out of the lower limit on the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first home as of 1 april。
