Fao increased the latest forecast of global cereal production in 2023 to 2,819 million tons, an increase of 1. 1 per cent over the same period last year。
The increase in the forecast this month is mainly due to the anticipated adjustments in global wheat production. The latest forecast for current global wheat production is 783. 3 million tons, mainly due to the better prospects of some countries, such as canada, kazakhstan and turkey. However, global wheat production is expected to decrease by 2. 3 per cent compared to the previous quarter。
In 2023/24, global cereal consumption is projected at 2,805 million tons, an increase of 0. 9 per cent over the same period, mainly as a result of increased consumption of coarse grains, especially maize feed。
According to the latest projections, fao expects an upward adjustment to 878 million tons of global grain stocks at the end of the season in 2023/24, an increase of 2. 3 per cent over the previous season. It is assumed that the global cereal stock-to-consumption ratio will remain at 30. 6 per cent in 2023/24, which is stable compared to the previous year. The new year will continue with a more relaxed supply pattern。
According to the latest fao projections, global cereal trade is projected to decline by 0. 9 per cent in 2023/24, with wheat trading expected to fall from a record level of 2022/23。
High food prices further exacerbate the food situation in fragile countries
The global problem of food security in multiple areas is increasing, and many regions are facing food crises as a result of rising food prices, economic downturns, conflicts, drought and impending el niÑo weather. According to the latest fao global food and agriculture information and early warning system (giews) report, 45 countries worldwide are in need of external food aid。
There are significant differences between domestic food prices and the fao food price index. Domestic food prices remain high and have become a major driver of acute hunger in these 45 countries, including 33 african countries, 9 asian countries and haiti, ukraine and venezuela。
The report notes that while global cereal production is expected to grow by 1. 1 per cent in 2023, cereal production is expected to decline in 44 low-income countries, which will lead to increased import demand in those countries。
The quarterly report crop prospects and food situation also provides detailed information on food security and price trends in affected countries, together with a detailed assessment of production and trade prospects in all regions of the world。
