The national consumer price index (cpi) and the producer price index (ppi) for industrial producers for the month of may will be published by the national statistical office on 9 june, combining the averages projected by seven institutions, with an increase of 2. 19 per cent for the year and a decrease of 3. 39 per cent for the ppi。
The report released at the meeting noted that the food price ring had declined in may, but that the decline had been narrower than in april, with non-food prices rising slightly, and that the cpi was expected to increase at the same rate as in april. In a combined assessment, the cpi increase in may could range from 2. 2 to 2. 5 per cent。
According to the daily securities journal, the price of pork continued to rise in late may, with the price of raw pigs rising to $20. 8 per kg and the price of pigs rising to $51 per kg, a 106 per cent increase in comparison, with some impact on price data projections。
In an interview with the daily securities journal journalist, xu gao, chief economist for large securities, stated that the may high-frequency data indicated that inflation had entered the lower road. As the supply of vegetables continued to improve, vegetable prices continued to decline in may, with the ring-to-seat decline approaching the largest in the past six months. The increase in the price of pork and the fall in the cost of feed have led to a significant increase in the profitability of pig farming, which continues to record a record high。
“as can be seen, there has been a reaction to the expansion of profits leading to a positive increase in the stock of raw pigs for two months in a row, as well as a positive increase in the number of able-bodied pigs since april, and limited further movement in pork prices. Taking into account the high base of last year's pig cycle, the price of pork is expected to fall on a year-on-year basis, with cpi projected to slow slightly to 2. 1 per cent in may。
The chief economist of the transport bank, junping, stated that although the amount of pig stock had risen slightly to 372 million, it remained low and the supply of pork could not increase significantly in the short term. In addition, prices for a large number of industrial products have fallen in a phased manner in the recent past, and non-food price increases continue to hover at a low level. The price of crude oil is stable, the price of oil rises and the price of oil-related products and fuels increases。
“in addition, a significant increase in the supply of money will raise prices. The m1 growth rate rose to 22. 9 per cent in april and will drive the future cpi up. After the change in base period this year, the weighting of cpi food weights was lowered, with a clear impact on the change in cpi over time. Overall, there is no inflationary pressure in the near future, but there is still a degree of upward mobility in the future for the cpi。
Suh gao noted that the downward pressure on the economy had strained industrial prices, while the expansion of profits in the previous period had led to a steady rise in the start-up rate of enterprises, a marked fall in industrial prices and a possible further increase in the ppi decline。
According to sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino investment analyst wong wento, the future policy tone has been set, again focusing on supply-side reforms. In may, heavy policies emerged, setting the tone for future policies around supply-side reforms. The ministry of finance and the central bank signaled that fiscal spending was expected to accelerate, that there was room for leverage on government debt and that monetary policy would become more robust。
