Mabo theory city
Ppi and cpi price indices are, in general, in fact, a performance indicator of bias in the overall economic situation. We generally consider pmi to be a front-line indicator, an industry value added of zero as a synchronized indicator, monetary policy as a neutral front-line indicator, price indicators as price and GDP, and cpi and GDP as a lag indicator. This shows that the overall economic stress throughout october was still weak on the demand side。
The month of october was one of expectation, because, with the addition of mid-autumn and national day holidays in october, we thought that we would be able to move out, which should be consumed, but that the end result was still not, and that if there was a real demand, prices would have risen and prices would have increased。
Whether prices are positive or negative, and even if small positive or small negative growth accumulates, there is a one-way magnification effect, which is a completely different logic, whether to continue strong or weak, shrink or zoom in。
In this sense, the negative growth of the cpi and the increase in the fall of the ppi suggest that the overall recovery is under pressure and that the economy is stable, but that the slope of the recovery is rather weak。
And two more things. Maybe you can't read them on other shows. The first central point is next year, when we predict that the ppi will be back on track, that it will be back on track by about april next year, and that by july and august the ppi will be up next year, the first。
The second cpi will maintain a vulnerable shock next year, with an overall increase of about 1 per cent next year, and the pressure for non-inflation will remain weak next year, the first big presumption for next year’s price index。
What does the second big piece do for our investment? There are probably a few points of view, and the weakness of current prices suggests that overall demand is still under pressure. Although many people are looking for the cpi to get weak because of the low price of pork, the ppi movement and the bulk of the product are not helping, right? This will put some pressure on the current stock market, so it is relevant that the market is weak today or that the whole has been weak。
It's technically the ability of the gold market to carry on these two days, to go up tomorrow, to top it up or next monday to watch more, so today's movement is a test stone, which is short term。
What does it mean that the ppi, just mentioned in mid-term, will be back on track next april and meet in august? It is a matter of certainty that the price of the future overall rise or the parity of the ppi rise. The blackboard knowledge point remembers that ppi's positive or negative growth is closely related to the corporate profits of our listed companies. In other words, the total profits of listed companies this year are negative, and the ppi must be negative this year, and the profits of listed companies may grow positive next year. It may therefore be possible to push the stock cycle to the bottom in essentially four quarters, with a slow recovery next year. This is a positive sign from the ppi in terms of medium- and long-term investment for all listed companies, but it is slow, with about half a year to go next year。
