$2601 for coke (dce|jm2601)
The steel industry in our country has made some progress in introducing and promoting arc-based steel refining, which is based on the following assumptions:
Arc steel extension progress
- policy promotion for clarity: the specific action plan for energy conservation in the iron and steel sector, issued by the national commission for development and development, among others, proposes that by the end of 2025, 300 million tons of steel will have been used in waste and that the share of steel in total production of crude steel will have risen to 15 per cent。
- increase in the real share: the domestic share of electric arc furnace steel increased from 15 per cent in 2020 to 22 per cent, driven by policy in 2025。
- there are significant regional differences: progress in the introduction of the arc method varies from region to region, such as jiangxi's effort to produce 10 per cent of the steel by 2025 and sichuan's share of the size of the steel by 2023, while the national average still needs to be further improved。
Arc-based steel extension extrapolated changes in coke coal production
- 2025: according to the chinese iron and steel industry association, 8. 62 million tons of crude steel were produced nationwide in april 2025. Assuming a balanced distribution of crude steel production in january-april, the total production of rough steel in january-april is approximately 8602\times4 = 34. 408 million tons, which is essentially consistent with the actual data of 345 million tons. If crude steel production is calculated at 1 billion tons for the year 2025 and the share of electric arc furnaces in steel refining is 22 per cent, the production of electric arc furnaces is 10\times = 220 million tons. The consumption of 0. 6 tons of coal per ton of crude steel in the traditional furnace-restoration process was reduced by 2. 2\times0. 6 = 132 million tons in 2025 by arc furnace steel. On average, the monthly reduction in the amount of coke used is about 1. 32\div12 = 110 million tons。
- 2026: assuming 1 billion tonnes of crude steel production remained constant in 2026 and the share of electric arc furnace steel refining increased to 25%, the production of electric arc furnace steel production was 10\times25\% = 250 million tonnes, and reduced coke use was 2. 5\times06 = 150 million tonnes。
- 2027: the share of electric arc furnace steel is expected to be over 30% in 2027, and if crude steel production is still 1 billion tons, the production of electric arc furnace steel is 10\times30\% = 300 million tons, and the reduction of the amount of coke used is 3\times06 = 180 million tons。
- 2028-2030: with the continued increase in the share of steel in electric arc furnaces, if the share of steel in electric arc furnaces reached 35 per cent in 2030 (assuming data) and the production of crude steel was 1 billion tons, the production of steel in electric arc furnaces was 10\times35\% = 350 million tonnes, and the reduction in the use of coke was 3. 5\times0. 6 = 210 million tonnes。
