I. China net borrowing industry news event 2017 top10
(in order of occurrence)
Guidance on the management of online loan funds, information disclosure, everything
The p2p platform's grouping overseas listed actively to embrace capital markets
The china money society online information disclosure system has docked 116 platform data
Business models such as p2p campus loans, money exchanges, etc. Have been called cash-deficit controls
The "nomination" of the land gold institute has raised concerns about the late release of the debt-forwarding product
For the first time, borrowers in the p2p network lending industry exceeded their investments people
Beijing judgement in the “e rented treasure” case: dining was sentenced to 100 million dollars in both cases
The china money society led the formation of the iu under the name of the "100th call."
P2p to cancel or adjust the risk provision on multiple platforms
The p2p risk-specific rectification and rectification notices are officially issued
Ii. Regulatory policy changes in the network lending sector in 2017
The year 2017 is the “year of compliance” for the internet lending industry, and a variety of heavy regulatory documents have been introduced. In particular, the bank's operational guidelines for the management of online lending funds, issued in february and august 2017 respectively, and the guidelines for the disclosure of information on the operations of network lending information intermediaries, mark the end of the three main compliance policies of the network lending industry bank, which together with the interim measures for the management of the operations of network lending information intermediaries, issued on 24 august 2016, constitute the “1+3” system of the network lending industry。
In addition, the circular of 8 december 2017 on the preparation and inspection of specialized p2p network lending risks requires that the registration of the main p2p institutions in the administration should be completed by the end of april 2018, and that all of them should be completed by the end of june。
In addition, the year has been marked by the continuation of a dedicated reform of internet finance and the introduction of controversial “school loans” and “cash loans”. Compliance and filing will remain the backbone of the platform's development over the coming period as the specialization of mutual funds continues and local filings are formalized。
Local governments have also responded to the demands of the national regulatory hierarchy by introducing regulatory policies to regulate the development of local web-based lending platforms, especially in the areas where they gather, such as guangdong, shanghai, beijing, shenzhen, zheang and jiangsu。
Iii. Functioning of the network lending industry in 2017
The core keyword for the development of the web-based lending industry in 2017 is “compliance”, with the establishment of a comprehensive web-based lending industry regulatory system of “1+3”, which provides direction for the development of the platform's compliance. This chapter will summarize developments in the network lending industry in 2017 from a multidimensional data perspective。
3. 1 number and distribution of platforms
By the end of december 2017, the number of regular operating platforms in the network lending industry had reached 1931, down from 517 at the end of 2016, and the number of regular operating platforms had been falling unilaterally throughout the year. As the platform overhaul process has not yet been completed, it is expected that the number of platforms operating in the network lending industry will decline further in 2018, depending on filing and compliance, from the current information estimates to around 800 by the end of 2018。
As of the end of 2017, the three top operating platforms were guangdong, beijing and shanghai, with 410, 376 and 261, respectively, followed by zhejiang, with 233 operating platforms and 66. 29 per cent of the country's total, indicating a relatively high regional concentration of the network lending industry, which is closely linked to the financial attributes of the network lending industry and the level of regional policy support。
In 2017, the restructuring process of the network lending industry was in its final stages, with the number of exit platforms significantly reduced compared to 2016, when the number of shut-down and problem platforms stood at 645, compared to 1713 in 2016. The number of problem platforms continues to decline, with only 33. 49 per cent of them in 2017, and 66. 51 per cent of the platforms opting out benignly. The above data show that our network lending industry is well regulated and that the future environment for industry will be healthier。
Following the iaff, in 2017, three platforms were successfully launched in the united states of america, with the recognition of foreign capital markets bringing great benefits to the network lending industry, which was in the regulatory year. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2017, the cumulative number of platforms in the network lending industry had reached 153, with 126 listed companies and 212 publicly financed, and 15 with banking backgrounds。
3. 2 trade in network lending
In 2017, the total turnover of the network lending industry reached $28,844. 9 million, an increase of 35. 9 per cent compared to the total number of internet lending transactions in 2016 (20,633,872 million). In 2017, the cumulative turnover in the network lending industry exceeded the $6 trillion mark, with the monthly turnover exceeding $200 billion and the march and july turnover exceeding $250 billion. The number of transactions in the network lending sector is expected to stabilize in the first half of 2018, with the gradual completion of the registration of the network lending platform, with new levels of transactions occurring in the second half of the year, with an estimated total value of more than $3 trillion a year。
Targeted at all web-based lending platforms monitored by the e-loan house, each of the platform's trades was sequenced, showing the 2017 barter-to-top 100 platform, as shown in the table below。
3. 3 loan balance in the network lending industry
As the volume of transactions has steadily increased, so has the stock of loans in the network lending sector. By the end of 2017, the overall loan balance of the network lending sector had reached $1224,587 million, up 50 per cent from 2016. This is mainly due to the higher concentration of the industry, while large platforms typically borrow for longer periods of time and rapidly expanding their operations, leading to a new step in the balance of industry loans。
The loan balances of the network lending sector have continued to rise steadily, reflecting the continuing net flow of financial resources into the network lending sector and the steady growth of the sector. On the basis of current growth trends, it is expected that the loan balance in the network lending sector will be over $1. 5 trillion by the end of 2018。
In terms of distribution by province and city, the three regions of beijing, shanghai and guangdong ranked among the top three in the country, with loans balances at the end of 2017 of 4,38,621 million yuan, 32,5717 million yuan and 22,6473 million yuan, respectively, representing 80. 91 per cent of the country's loan balance, an increase of 2. 02 percentage points over 2016. Following zhejiang, jiangsu and sichuan, the balance of loans at the end of 2017 was $10. 6118 billion, $37. 457 billion and $13. 16 billion, respectively。
The loan balance of the top 100 platform is more concentrated, with more than 80 per cent spread over four northern and upper zhejiang regions, with significant geographical advantages. As shown in the figure below, top 100 has the largest number of beijing regional platforms, with 39, followed by 20 in guangdong and 14 in zhejiang and 13 in shanghai。
The chart below shows the trend in the share of web-based loan balances in industry balances of 10 billion or more, the year 2017 being the year of regulatory compliance in the web-based lending industry, and the expulsion of bad currencies. Although industry concentration in 2017 has been in a state of shock, from may onwards, the industry concentration of the 100 billion loan-balance platform has been largely above 45 per cent, with a continuing upward trend over the past three months。
Targeted at all web-based lending platforms monitored by the e-loan house, the loan balances of the platform were processed in descending order, showing the 2017 loan balance top100 platform, as shown in the table below。
Table 3-22017 operating data on the loan balance of the network lending industry, top100 platform
3. 4 net-lending industry combined rate of return
The overall aggregate rate of return for the network lending industry in 2017 was 9. 45 per cent, a decrease of 100 basis points (one basis point = 0. 01 per cent) compared to the overall rate of return for the network lending industry in 2016. The aggregate rate of return in 2017 continued the overall downward trend in 2016, but the rate of decline slowed. On the one hand, because of the front-load platform, most of which has a strong background and is favoured by investors, the combined rate of return is relatively low; on the other hand, in response to regulatory policy requirements, interest rates on asset-end borrowing are gradually declining, affecting the combined rate of return in the network lending industry. As a result of the current correction, the combined rate of return for the network lending industry is expected to continue down to around 9 per cent in 2018。
3. 5 average borrowing duration of the network lending industry
The average borrowing period in the network lending industry was 9. 16 months in 2017, which was 1. 27 months longer than in 2016. In terms of average borrowing periods by month of 2017, although volatile, the overall trend is upwards, with an average borrowing period of up to 10. 02 months in december. This is mainly due to the large number of interlocking platforms and the increasing number of long-term targets, leading to longer average borrowing periods in the industry. It is expected that the average borrowing period of the network lending industry for the entire year will be around 10 months in 2018。
3. 6 network lending industry
The number of investments and the number of borrowers in the network lending industry were estimated at 1,713,000 and 2,243,000 in 2017, respectively, representing an increase of 24. 58 per cent and 156. 05 per cent, respectively, over 2016, with the internet lending industry enjoying a steady level of enthusiasm. As a result of the quota policy, a number of platforms have shifted to small-scale operations such as consumer finance, and parts of them have taken over cash-credited assets, which have a commonality of small-scale fragmentation and a large number of borrowers, resulting in borrowings and growth rates exceeding investment levels in 2017. However, with the strengthening of cash lending controls, the number of people investing in 2018 is expected to exceed 21 million and 20 million, respectively。
3. 7 overview of financing in the network lending industry
By the end of 2017, the network lending industry had received a total of $42,961 million, or 214 cases. As shown in the figure below, the peaks in both the amount and volume of financing occurred in 2016, and the heat of financing declined significantly in 2017. This is mainly due to the fact that, in 2017, the web-based lending platform was in the process of being overhauled and regulatory policies were in place, and that investment in the wind was largely on the horizon, but the current system of industry regulation was fully in place and trends were becoming clearer, with more financing expected in the future。
According to incomplete statistics from the centre for the study of internet loans, there were 38 cases of financing in the network lending sector in 2017, amounting to approximately 8,808 million yuan. (in which the exchange rate is calculated at 6. 6, the unpublished size is not included in the statistics, and the amount of financing is calculated at 20 million yuan for tens of millions of dollars)。
Iv. Analysis of the web-based lending industry
The year 2017 was the tenth year of the network lending industry. During the year, the size of the network lending industry grew steadily, with the introduction of a regulatory policy for the sector and the widespread dissemination of negative news such as school loans, nudity loans and cash loans. This chapter will analyse the web-based lending industry in 2017 from the point of view of the fact that it reflects the attitude of the media, market participants towards an industry and companies。
4. 1 data sources
The internet-based lending industry, as an important component of internet finance, has a strong internet identity, which is more accessible and faster than traditional finance. Depending on the channel of issuance, three main categories can be identified:
1. The media, including mainstream news portals such as sino-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi-wi
2. Micro-credit social media, including web-based lending platforms and some third-party platforms, micro-credit publics
3. Forums for third-party platforms for internet lending, including community channels for internet lending houses, etc。
Therefore, based on data availability, excavation depth and industry relevance, this paper uses the webloans news database as a source of sample data, including:
(1) more than 200 news websites
(2) more than 2,000 platforms or media tweets to the public
(3) nearly 100 active third-party online lending and platform official forums。
4. 2 network lending industry analysis
The total number of online lending businesses showed steady growth in 2017. The online lending home's data base shows that in 2017, major news media, forums and twitter published over 1. 02 million online lending businesses, an increase of 12. 8 per cent over the 2016 ring。
As shown in the figure below, the negative share of the internet-based lending sector has generally declined. In 2013 and 2014, when the industry developed in a brutal fashion, the industry was relatively low in focus, with a relatively low number of negative stories and a relatively high percentage of negative news, compared to the positive ones, and in 2015, when the internet lending industry grew at a high rate, both in terms of size and number of platforms, with more positive stories in the spring of the industry's development, the negative news rate fell sharply, at 11. 49 per cent, the lowest in recent years。
There was a marked increase in the number of internet lending-related cases in 2016, with negative perceptions rising compared to 2015. On the one hand, it is because of the growing volume of transactions in the network lending industry and the wider social context; on the other hand, the regulation of the network lending industry was successively issued in 2016, generating widespread interest among the investor community. In addition, platform runaway incidents persist and increasingly stringent compliance standards have forced a large number of small platforms to transform or shut down. The fact that public opinion is often sensitive to negative events explains in part the fact that the number of negative news in the online lending industry increased in 2016 compared to 2015。
As regulation continues, the industry has embarked on a path of healthy and orderly development, with negative data showing a decline in the share of negative developments in 2017 to 13. 48 per cent, indicating, on the one hand, the effectiveness of regulatory policy implementation, and, on the other hand, the increased focus of the platform on the maintenance of its own brand, combined with the fact that most of the non-compliant platforms have opted out of the industry themselves, leading to the development of a healthy health situation for the whole industry, which can also be expected to continue to decrease in the future。
As can be seen from the figure below, the euphoria of the web-based lending industry in 2013 and earlier was dominated by the news sector, during which the development of twitter and third-party forums was just beginning, with low coverage; with the rapid spread of twitter, the number of media outlets involved in the network-based lending industry has grown, and with the internet attributes of the network-based lending industry itself, it was dominated in 2014 and 2015。
Since 2016, however, with the rapid growth in the size of the network lending industry and the continuing influx of prominent players in the sector, regulatory policies have continued to emerge, placing the network lending industry at the centre of media attention, and news channels have become much more widespread and intense in terms of their reach and intensity than twitter。
Forty-nine per cent of the industry in 2017 came from news sources; good developments in third-party peripheral services, such as internet lending houses, provided a platform for investors to communicate, making the forum one of the important sources of industry intelligence, with 29. 30 per cent in 2017。
As can be seen from the figure below, the first tier of the positive focus in 2017 is dominated by internet finance, finance and macro-business words, which are essential features of the network lending industry and refer to internet lending as a means of avoiding such words; the second tier is closely aligned with the main cycle of regulatory development in the network lending industry in 2017, which revolves around bank deposits, financial technology, compliance, regulation, etc.; and the third tier is mainly an industry-specific platform that shows greater visibility of the platform, especially in the united states market or in cooperation with capital markets。
The negative news focus of the web-based lending industry in 2017 was divided into the following categories: product types, mainly campus loans, cash loans, bitcoin, etc.; and, in the industry itself, mainly runaways, overdues, exposures, frauds, etc., where negative indicators of events or events were high and discussions were hotter。
4. 3 network lending platform analysis
For a web-based lending platform, exposure is an indicator that cannot be ignored. On the one hand, large exposures can inform more investors and potential investors about the platform, but on the other hand negative exposures can cause investors to panic, lead to centralized cash withdrawals, and disrupt the liquidity balance of the platform's funds, thereby affecting its normal operation. Inappropriate handling may even lead directly to the closure of the platform。
The figure below shows the number of stories on the web-based lending platform in 2017, top20. The higher volume of news related to lending is largely due to its high volume, both in terms of turnover and investment and the combined number of borrowers, as well as to the fact that china's first internet lending platform, which successfully went to the united states in november, has generated widespread interest in society, with gold suits and easy-to-eat loans following them, second and third. Also in 2017, credits and credit and credit were ranked fourth and eighth。
4. 4 network investor profile analysis
The media attributes of the forum are different from those of twitter and news. It is a medium in which investors can speak freely, and its content is characterized by investor sentiment, attention to topics, talk points, etc. Analysis of the forum's content allows for a closer understanding of investor needs, thereby providing better quality services。
As shown in the figure below, the collection of nearly 100 forums based on the e-loans database shows that they can be divided into four main categories: the first is the platform's activities, with more active terms of reference being mainly “check-in”, “scoring points”, “red packages”; the second is the platform's experience, where investors are more concerned with “discount”, “paybacks”, “guests”; the third is the investor's mood, where more discussions or statements are made with negative terms such as “concealers”, “sets”, etc.; and the fourth is the platform's judgement, where investors are more focused on “recording”, “power”。
V. The way forward for the network lending industry
2017 is the year of compliance in the network lending industry. With the full completion of the 1+3 system of network lending supervision and the ongoing consolidation of mutual funds, compliance became the main tone for the development of the p2p lending platform this year. The year was marked by an increase in regulation, a steady decline in the number of platforms and a deep shuffle in the industry. In 2018, the web-based lending industry will have a record of 10 major trends:
1. Essentially completed and compliant land
2. Industry is stable, platform exits slow and benign exits predominate
3. There is a strong competition for assets and a surge in supply chain finance
4. Industry profits have risen and external markets have continued
Big brother or speed-up p2p network lending industry
6. Industry transparency has increased significantly and yields have declined slightly
7. Third-party guarantees, such as insurance, will be the primary safeguard
8. The role of letters, data-sharing and smart wind control will be enhanced
9. Industry concentration continued to rise and m&as accelerated
10. Enhanced offshore cooperation, export technologies and business models
