A reference guide for the price analysis and breeding of otters in shandong in april (with latest market data)
I. Overview of the april price trends for otters in shandong
In april, the market for otters in shandong province showed a "stable and moderate rise" in prices, which, according to the latest monitoring by the sandong department of livestock and veterinary medicine, averaged 28. 5 yuan/kg for the province as a whole, an increase of 2. 3 per cent over the previous month, representing an increase of 7. 8 per cent. Among them, prices rose to 31. 2 yuan/kg for traditional farming counties such as laijun and ta'an, while coastal areas such as qingdao and smoke tsai stabilized between 26. 8 and 27. 5 yuan/kg。
(figure 1: q4-q1 trend in the price of otter rabbits)
Ii. Evolution of price of species
1. Commodity rabbits (3. 5-4. 5 kg)
- standard type (black rabbit): 28. 0-29. 5 usd/kg
- high-quality (high-ear rabbit): $30. 0-32. 0/kg
- high end species (colour rabbits): 32. 5-35. 0/kg
2. Rabbit price (weaning rabbit)
- general: $380-450/only
- high-quality species (parents): 650-850/only
- pure race rabbit (special level): 1200-1500/only
Prices of otter rabbits
- general leather (area 1. 2-1. 5 m2): $18-22/span
- quality skin (area 1. 8 m2): $25-28/span
- pure skin (black/white/ ash) 30-$35/zhang
Iii. Key factors influencing price volatility
1. Supply-side dynamics
- cultivation column: 28 million columns in the province, 5. 2% decrease in ring ratio
- new farms: 37 new farms were approved in april, mainly in the south-western part of the country
- columning cycle: the traditional columning cycle is reduced to 4. 8 months and 0. 3 months less than the previous month
2. Changes in demand side
- livestock feed demand: 8. 7 per cent reduction in the volume of complementary purchases as compared to the increase in maize prices
- leather processing orders: export orders rose to 62 per cent, with the south-east asian market growing by 23 per cent
- the demand for slaughter processing: the slaughter of rabbits increased by 4. 1 per cent, but the rate of processing loss rose to 8. 3 per cent
3. Cost structure analysis
- forage cost: the co-benefit price was $2. 15/kg (+5. 8%)
- epidemic expenditure: an average cost increase of $12 (including rabbit plague, bacillus, etc.)
- environmental inputs: 83 per cent of the province's total farm farming coverage is covered by the standardized hare house improvement subsidy policy household
Iv. Depth calculations of farming benefits
(table 1: cost-benefit measures for the raising of rabbits in shandong)
Project single cost ($)
| - - | - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General farming 220-250 820-90 600-650 5. 2-6. 7
Standardized farming 280-320 950-1050 720-780 6. 5-8. 3
High-end farming 350-400 | 1100-1250 | 7. 2-9. 0 |
Note: roi calculates the formula as (net profit/total cost)/month average column period
Risk warning and response strategies
1. Main risk points
- disease prevention and control: 23 cases of haemorrhage were reported across the province in april, a 40 per cent increase over the same period
- market volatility: international gross rabbit price volatility of > 15 per cent
- environmental pressure: 2. 3 per cent of farms are punished for failure to meet standards for excreta disposal
Recommendations for response measures
- establishment of a three-tier prevention system (fields - rabbit houses - individuals)
- insurance for specific farming risks (with 90% mortality rate)
- promotion of the photovoltaic + rabbit house model (35% reduction in electricity usage)
- establishment of a regional price linkage mechanism (leon-tyan-tex price index)
Vi. Projections of future market trends
1. Short-term (q2)
- price zone projection: 28. 0-30. 5 yuan/kg (+5. 6%)
- drivers: high consumption season at midday + continuation of the export refund policy
2. Medium term (q3-q4)
- structural adjustment: 30 per cent expected to be phased out household
- upgrading of varieties: the proportion of high-quality rabbits will increase to 45 per cent
- regional integration: the formation of three major industrial clusters (lu-cu, lu-si-si-si, kee-dong)
3. Long term (-)
- target price: $35-38/kg (6. 8%)
- technology application: 70 per cent coverage of the ai feed system
- market expansion: opening up high-end markets in the middle east (30% premium space)
Vii. Policy support and industry dynamics
1. Focused affirmative policies in shandong province
- farm rehabilitation allowance: $300 per square metre (up to a ceiling of 500,000)
- rabbit deep processing project: a subsidy of $5-8 million for individual projects
- upgrading of rabbit hair processing technology: 40 per cent subsidy for equipment acquisition
2. Developments in industry associations
- in may, the shandong rabbit industry association will hold a "standard farming site."
- in june, the "rotter rabbit" geographical logo was launched
- publication in july of the 2. 0 edition of the technical instructions for otter farming in shandong province
Viii. Success stories
1. The lu-turkish co-operative model in lehun city
- size: 1. 2 million rabbits per year
- innovation: establishment of the "purpose acquisition + futures union" mechanism
- results: an average increase of 18 per cent in farm families
2. Tyan city "wise bunny house" demonstration project
- input: 3 million for construction of a smart rabbit house
- technology: networking of things + large data management system
- savings: 40% labour cost and 15% feed waste
Recommendations for investment decisions
1. The opportunity window period
- q2 price adjustment period (may-june)
- policy focused release period (july-august)
- supply and demand balance points (september-october)
2. Risk control elements
- avoid blind expansion (recommended to maintain more than 75 per cent capacity utilization)
- preserve futures market volatility (set a 10% hedge bond)
- enhanced cash flow management (reserve three months of operating funds)
X. Sectoral data perspective
