In april 2026, the international gold market staged a “hill-crossing” exercise in the middle of the meibo game. During the night of 21 april, spot gold fell by over $120, reaching a minimum of $4697. 05 per ounce, and the june gold price of the new york commodity exchange fell by $4,800 per ounce. Despite high short-term fluctuations, agencies such as cals noted that multi-logicalism remained unchanged in the medium to long term, and the back-to-back support position became a layout opportunity. # incident # rebroadcast: the extension of the ceasefire, the breakdown of negotiations and the blockade of the straits on the us-iraqi situation have been rallied around three core issues, directly disturbing the price of gold: ** the ceasefire has been extended**: on 21 april, united states president trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at the request of pakistan, but the united states forces continued to maintain the maritime blockade against iran. - ** the second round of negotiations broke down**: on the same day, iran officially refused to attend the second round of the us-iraq talks, which was scheduled for 22 april in islamabad. - ** regulating the strait of hormuz**: iran insists that lifting the blockade is a prerequisite for resuming negotiations, while the united states insists on maintaining the blockade until an agreement is reached, resulting in a “battle-to-mouth” impasse. Previously, after the breakdown of the negotiations on 13 april, the united states blocked the strait, at a price of **4639 dollars.** # market logic: the current price volatility of the dual game of geopolitics and high interest rates is dominated by two major factors: - ** geopolitical logic reverses**: the simple relationship between the traditional “ceasefire = falling gold prices” has been broken. The market began trading a new chain of “** ceasefire oil prices falling back and inflation cooling down and interest rates are expected to re-start the gold harvest**”. This could trigger a sharp drop in the price of gold. -** federal reserve policy repression**: at macro level** united states retail sales ring jumped 1. 7 per cent in march**, well ahead of expectations, weakening interest-rate expectations. The hawks of the federal reserve chair's nominees, walsh, further reinforced expectations that high interest rates would be maintained for longer** and raised the opportunity cost of holding zero interest gold. > the il futures analysis indicates that the price of the gold is supported by geo-uncertainty, while the price of the gold is bound by the high interest rate of the federal reserve and that the short line is more likely to be a high-level shock. # institutional perspective: despite increasing short-term fluctuations in the medium- and long-term multi-logic logic, many agencies are optimistic about the medium- and long-term trends in gold: - ** the core of the continuity of the current cycle depends on the strength of the ceasefire agreement,** the medium- and long-term multi-logic logic has not fundamentally changed ** and the key supporting positions in the recall process can serve as potential opportunities for multiple layouts. -**swiss bank** expects the average gold price in 2026 to be ** $5,000 per ounce** and looks at the recent return as a buy-in opportunity. - ** goldman sachs** maintains a long-term outlook, with a target at the end of the year ** $5,400**. The structural factors underpinning the multi-logic approach include: - ** the central bank's gold-buying boom continues**: the central bank of china has increased its gold reserves for the seventeenth consecutive month, and the end of march has increased the ring by ** 160,000 ounces (approximately 4. 98 tons)** to provide long-term base support for gold prices. -**de-dollarization trend**: the need for global central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves is strong. - **inflation and interest rate reduction projections**: in the medium to long term, the fed’s interest rate reduction cycle will boost the attractiveness of gold. # operations strategy: focus on critical support, which emphasizes patience and wind control in a “high volatility, low continuity” market characteristic: - ** key support position**: technical analysis shows that the primary support area for gold prices is in **4690-4700/ounce** and the strong support area in **4630-4650/ounce**. These positions can serve as a reference for low layouts. -**strategic management**: it is recommended that gold be used as a “combination stone” for the portfolio of assets, in accordance with the principle of “**no heavy, unsatisfied,**” and that costs be smoothed and the risk of selection be reduced by means of** batch layout,** given. -** short-term focus**: investors need to pay close attention to official statements of the us-iraq situation, federal reserve policy statements and us inflation data, which could trigger a new wave of volatility. # risk tip: uncertainty-rising short-term gold prices are still at risk of being reversed, mainly due to: # the us-iraq negotiations have suddenly made a substantial breakthrough and the avoidance mood is rapidly cooling. - the inflation figures in the united states are higher than expected, and the fed releases a signal from the eagles. - the united states dollar index continues to strengthen and the price of gold is suppressed. According to the world gold association, the volatility of gold is characterized by a significant “** mean return**” with an historical half-life of about **1. 6 months**. In an environment of increased volatility, the strategic position of gold as a portfolio risk diversification tool has not wavered. The repeated meibo games will continue to inject uncertainty into the gold market, but the assigned value of gold remains strong, based on long-term structural underpinnings such as central bank purchases and de-dollarization. For investors, the elimination of short-line noise and the rationalization of critical support points in medium- and long-term multi-vision frameworks such as credit and futures delivery are viable strategies for dealing with the current situation of the roller coaster。
