It's in front
At a time when the market is stymied, the heavy “5. 17” new deal has landed, with a number of key cities following suit to revive the real estate market. The “building city watch” series illustrates the profound changes and new dynamics of the cycle through research into key cities in industrial, demographic and real estate transactions。
A reporter from the chinese newspaper lee yip qing peking
In nanjing, where the market for new houses has been demining at a low rate, a project called "the lord of the one price" has been filmed。
On 19 june, nanjing granted three concessions, with an overall premium of 15. 8 per cent, totalling $2,282 million。
Of these, the south-west part of the river, with a capacity rate of only 1. 01, received the most attention, with a final bid of 47 rounds, at a total price of $1. 74 billion for the construction of the orchid, and at a price of top2 for the nanjing building。
The emergence of this “one-priced landlord” project is considered to have had a positive impact on the new housing market as a result of the frequent occurrence of building-market policies。
Since may of this year, nanjing has had a strong policy of good property. What about nanjing city after a series of policy optimizations
“in the second half of may, we were too busy `to stop' and there was a significant increase in the number of visits and subscriptions to the building, but a decline in recent times.” on 17 june, during the full month of the new deal of 5/17, a number of nanjing real estate practitioners, in an interview with the china real estate newspaper, said that they were also afraid that the heat generated by the policy would be blown and restored to their homes。
The data also confirm the observations made by the above-mentioned persons. According to kerry data, in may 2024, 270,000 square metres of new commercial housing were traded in nanjing, a decrease of 16 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, over the same period. Cumulatively, in the first five months of the year, the new commercial housing stock in nanjing was 1. 12 million square metres, a 61 per cent decrease over the same period. On-line real estate data for nanjing also show that in may, 3966 new residential units were contracted in nanjing, representing a 40 per cent increase in the ring ratio; 2499 new residential units were contracted, representing a decrease of 6. 9 per cent。
In response to this situation, u shanghua, president of the nanjing real estate institute and director of the tiancheng real estate institute of nanjing industrial university, stated to the chinese real estate newspaper that while the role of the “5. 17” new deal is not direct for the new house, the second-hand room has a greater impact; on the other hand, for the nanjing market, the effect of the “old-for-new” policy is more practical, and the “old-for-new” policy is currently in the process of assessing the old house, with the increase in the number of new house subscriptions, which has not yet been turned into a deal, and it is believed that the subsequent trade will be increased。
“despite good policies, the expectations of market participants may not have changed completely, and buyers are still waiting for clearer market signals or more favourable terms. In addition, there is a lag in the effectiveness of building-market policies, market responses take some time and data in the short term do not fully reflect the long-term impact of policies. “the vice-president of the chinese business capital union, pa wen-hye, believes that the chinese government will not be able to take action。
In nanjing, local real estate practitioners zhou benhua also indicated to journalists that the number of new home subscriptions had indeed increased significantly in late may and that, although they had not been reflected in the transaction data in time, they should be converted after the process had been completed. However, he remained pessimistic about the city of nanjing in june, which “may not be better than may”
Zenium
Markets still to be repaired
Following the new deal of 5/17, the city of nanjing was in a hot spot。
According to relevant media reports, the vancoran rainstone nuclear project, which is located in the rain pavilion of nanjing city, had more than 160 single-day visits on 18 may, and had doubled the number of single-day transactions for four households measuring 139 square metres over the previous weekend. On may 18-19, nanjing developers issued a series of red good news reports in which the new town's recruiter pauli wein and the zolin newspaper wrote that more than 500 groups had been visited, with sales of about 300 million; the red goodies of jiang ningka and washington had written “big billion” and sold some 20 sets over the weekend, breaking 100 million。
According to nanjing online real estate data, on 18 may the nanjing city commodity houses were contracted for 349 units for 35 units; on 19 may, the nanjing city-wide commodity houses were contracted for 272 units for 42 units; and on 20 may, the nanjing city-wide commodity house was contracted for 366 units for 137 units。
In the second house market, the latest data on online real estate in nanjing show that the last five-day turnover of over 400 units a day, except on 15 june, reached a maximum of 503 units a day, exceeding the expectations of many marketers。
However, the heat does not last。
According to kerry data, in may 2024, 270,000 square metres of new commercial housing were traded in nanjing, a decrease of 16 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, over the same period. In terms of de-dibilization, the rate for new homes in nanjing in may this year was only 7 per cent, down by 1 percentage point from the rate of 8 per cent in the first quarter of this year and by 19 percentage points from the rate of 26 per cent last may。
Previously, in order to stabilize the market, nanjing had put in place a number of pro bono policies, and on 11 may the city of nanjing issued a circular on matters relating to the legal and stable residence of non-nanjing residents, who had legal and stable residence in the city and who were actually resident, had been allowed to settle directly. On 16 may, a number of banks in nanjing city announced that, as of that date, the first home in nanjing would be a commercial personal mortgage. The floor of the interest rate was adjusted to lpr-50bp, with the minimum rate falling to 3. 45 per cent, a record low. Subsequently, jiangsu province responded to the new deal of 5/17, with first and second mortgages in 13 prefectures across the province. The minimum down payment rate was adjusted to 15 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively, and nanjing began implementing the policy on 27 may。
For the time being, the effectiveness of the policies has not been effectively promoted, and markets still need to be repaired。
Zenium
It's not very attractive
In the series of policies pursued in nanjing, the housing policy has been given high hopes of stimulating the demand for housing。
“when the new deal came, it was felt that there had been no significant change in the number of visits to marketing centres. After a reduction in down payment and interest rates, daily visits increased by about 20 per cent.” according to a salesman for a project in the qin huai district of nanjing city。
In an interview with a journalist, the intended purchaser said, "we're just improving the house, we've had a house check, so the new deal doesn't affect us. It is now time to see the down payment for the second set down, and to think that a better quality house might be considered, but it is not urgent.”
“as among the clients i have contacted, the reduction of interest rates is the factor that most affects their purchase of housing. It's not too attractive to stay in nanjing." monday ben-hwa told the press that, after all, the threshold for admission to nanking was already low。
U shanghua also stated that the household registration is not a particular concern of home buyers, mainly because nanjing is relatively less attractive than a front-line city, and because there are many policies, such as the placement of talent in households, that are already in place, so that the new household policy is not clearly relevant to the real estate market。
In september 2023, nanjing announced a lowering of the threshold for admission to the social security scheme for students under 35 years of age。
At the end of the year, the resident population of nanjing was 9,547,000, an increase of 559,000 compared to 9,491,000 in 2022。
However, the increase of 559 million people is not significant in many provincial capitals. In 2023, co-fertilizers grew by 219,000 people, leading 41 cities in the long triangle. In addition, zhengzhou grew by 180,000, hangzhou by 146,000, chengdu by 135,000, guangzhou by 9. 29 and xian by 8. 23 million。
Hu, who is based in sichuan, has graduated from a university in nanjing and has since chosen to work in beijing. “nanking has no advantage over chengdu, the capital of sichuan province, or beijing.”
"if i want more life, i will choose chengdu; if i want better career prospects, i will choose beijing." as far as i'm concerned, nanking's wages and types of jobs are not very different from cheng's, most of them are paid at $4,000-$5,000 a month, but cheng is probably better than nanjing, and there are still a lot of big businesses or foreign companies, and many of them offer more jobs than nanjing, and many of them can reach $80-10,000 a month, or even a million a month's salary. In terms of employment, nanjing is not at the same level as beijing, where there are more jobs and more high-paying jobs and prospects for development。
The “goldness” of nanjing accounts also appears to be in the eyes of young people。
“as the capital city of jiangsu province, while the quality of education in nanjing may be better, jiangsu gaoko’s “roll” is very strong, and there may be considerable pressure to advance if a child attends nanjing, which is also a reduction factor.” hu told reporters that, in sum, i do not think nanjing has a very high gold content。
Zenium
Industry, population and housing
People follow the industry, it's booming。
In industry, electronics, petrochemicals, steel and automobiles remain the four traditional pillars of nanjing. Most of the recent decline in traditional industries, influenced by such factors as industrial restructuring and the international environment, has also directly contributed to the slower growth of the nanjing economy than the national average in 2023. In 2023, the national GDP growth rate was 5. 2 per cent, while in nanjing it was only 4. 6 per cent。
It is worth noting that the total GDP of nanjing, which is the capital of jiangsu province, represents only 13. 68 per cent of the total GDP of the province, well below 19. 3 per cent of the total GDP of suzhou city。
In terms of population, nanjing has also been dominated by surrounding suzhou and hangzhou. By the end of 2023, suzhou and hangzhou urban areas had a resident population of more than 10 million and were among the megacities. The resident population of nanjing is only 9. 54 million, still far from 10 million。
“nanjing is in a downward spiral in demographic competition in `new front cities', which is linked both to its housing policy and to local industrial structures. U shanghua analysis。
U shanghua states that, in terms of industrial structure, nanjing is not as well developed as hangzhou and zhuong fats, that it is more oriented towards traditional industries, that the transition is later and that high-end industrial development does not seem to be prominent and that it is less attractive to talent. In terms of housing policies, the former nanjing was more inclined to attract high- and low- and middle-level talent, among others. But how can many people who need to grow from low to high, leapfrogging into senior talent without a first stage? This has led to the fact that, although nanjing has a percentage of the population with a university level second to beijing, many tertiary graduates face difficulties in finding work in nanjing, and some university students transitioned to nanjing’s state enterprise, where they gained experience and went to suzhou and hangzhou。
“any industry requires so-called high-, medium- and low-end demographics to be able to transform, and not to be able to `take care of everything' by just being sophisticated.” wu shanghua stated that many cities had been aware of this early and had adjusted their policies in a timely manner and had achieved “run-away” when nanjing had not yet responded。
U shanghua took the example of consummate fertilizer, which had previously been low-profile in the country's cities; in the past, it had also become more dependent on the jiangsu and long triangle regions. However, during these years, the chums have moved out of their own independence. First, a massive investment in semiconductor shows the leading east of the country as a base for the country’s advanced panel industry; then investment in long-term storage in 2016, breaking the long-standing monopoly of overseas semiconductor giants; and investment in recent years to complete the ecological construction of the new energy-car industry, all of which has given rise to a qualitative leap in the size of the industrial institutions and economy. At the same time, the upgrading of these industrial structures has created a large number of jobs and, with the introduction of preferential population policies such as housing, entrepreneurship and so forth, the fatty market is easily attracted and eventually left behind。
Perhaps because of a rethinking of the demographic structure, nanjing again relaxed its residency policy on 11 may. The impact of this policy change has not yet been felt。
Bovinghee analyses the symptoms in several ways。
“the attractiveness of households is closely linked to the public services and benefits they attach. If nanjing's public services and support facilities do not meet expectations, people will not choose to settle even if the threshold is low. The level of development and quality of life in different regions can also influence perceptions of households. If the development prospects or quality of life in some regions are not high, the attraction is limited even if the threshold for admission is lower.” according to boving, with the liberalization of population movements and regional economic integration, there is a greater preference for areas with better economic development, more employment opportunities and relatively lower cost of living, rather than simply because of loose housing policies. The effectiveness of policies is also affected if they are not sufficiently well publicized or if there is a bias in their perception。
“the performance of the building market is influenced by a variety of factors, and it is difficult for a single factor to fully explain the market phenomenon. At the same time, the effectiveness of policies needs to be assessed in a comprehensive manner, combining long-term data and market responses. "berwin is saying。
