The commodity base data for futures exchanges in the country were updated on 14 april to provide a clear picture of the differences between supply and demand in commodity markets and expectations in terms of the price differentials between spot and futures, the base rate, etc., as explained below:
I. Core data highlights
Shanghai futures exchange
- groundnuts: cash of $7,000 per ton, futures of $8352 per ton, base rate of 19. 31 per cent, spot prices significantly lower than futures, market expectations for forward supply are tight and futures end-to-ends show a marked rise in water。
- low-sulphur fuel oils: $5463 per ton live, $4616 per ton futures, 15. 50 per cent base margin, strong supply and demand support at the end of the spot, prices well above futures, and mood in the spot market。
- industrial silicon: spot $9150 per ton, futures $8320 per ton, base rate 9. 07 per cent, spot-water futures, strong spot-end prices and inadequate chain recognition of forward prices。
- eggs: $3820/t, futures $3240/t, base rate 15. 18%, short-term increase, relatively lag in futures prices and high mood on the spot。
- plastics: spot $8,900 per ton, futures $8316 per ton, base margin 6. 56 per cent, spot price is high, spot markets are better in circulation and demand。
- pp: present goods of $10,000 per ton, futures of $8939 per ton, base rate of 10. 61 per cent, spot discounts are evident, and there is some disagreement in the industrial chain about the direction of post-market prices。
- splined steel: cash: $3220/t; futures: $3094/t; base rate: 3. 91 per cent; spot watering, with a strong, forward and weak structure in recent months。
- iron ore: spot $796. 1 per ton, futures $758. 5 per ton, base margin 4. 72 per cent, spot end support strong, and futures adjusted to market mood fluctuations。
Comcom commodity exchange
- soybeans ii: cash of $3841/t; futures of $3602/t; base rate of 6. 22 per cent; spot-posted; market expectations for future soybeans are relatively stable。
- palm oil: spot $9370/t; futures $9433/t; base rate - 0. 67 per cent; current prices are close and market expectations converge。
- corn: cash of $2390 per ton, futures of $2377 per ton, base margin of 0. 54 per cent, current prices slightly deviated and supply and demand were relatively balanced。
- starch: $2,900/tonne spot, $2771/tonne futures, 4. 45 per cent base rate, higher spot prices than futures and better off demand side of the spot。
- raw pigs: $8,900/t; futures $9185/t; base rate - 3. 20 per cent; small increase in the price of futures; market expectations for the forward price of raw pigs。
- lpg: cash of $7350 per ton, futures of $5753 per ton, base rate of 21. 73 per cent, strong spot price support and some room for futures。
Zhengzhou commodity exchange
- white sugar: cash: $5271 per ton, futures: $5287 per ton, base rate - 0. 30 per cent, current prices are almost flat and markets are expected to stabilize。
- cotton: spot $16935 per ton, futures $15520 per ton, base rate 8. 36 per cent, spot watering, demand-supply relationship at the spot end。
- methanol: spot $3298/tonne, futures $3122/tonne, base rate 5. 34%, spot prices are higher than futures and spot-end demand is better。
- acrylene: present goods 9,300 yuan/tonne, futures 8524 yuan/tonne, base rate 8. 34%, spot-watering and less pressure on the supply side of the spot-end。
- precipitation: cash: $2259 per ton, futures: 2014 ton, base rate: 10. 85 per cent, spot price rises significantly and market sentiment is optimistic。
- urea: spot $1,900 per ton, futures $1827 per ton, base rate 3. 84 per cent, spot water, market expectations for forward urea prices。
Shanghai energy futures exchange
- international copper: cash: $89641 per ton, futures: $89870 per ton, base margin - 0. 26 per cent, current prices slightly deviated and market transactions were calm。
- low-sulphur fuel oils: cash: $5463/t; futures: $4616/t; base rate: 15. 50 per cent, consistent with the data from the previous period, with strong supply and demand support on the spot。
Guangzhou futures exchange
- polycrystal silicon: the spot is $36,500/tonne, the future is $34089/tonne, the base rate is 6. 62 per cent, the spot is adhesive and the demand side of the spot is performing well。
- aluminium: cash: $528 per ton, futures: $531. 1 per ton, base rate: 0. 21 per cent, current prices are almost flat and markets are expected to stabilize。
Analysis of overall market patterns
1. On-the-shelf strong plates: low-sulphur fuel oils, eggs, industrial silicon, plastics, etc., have higher spot prices than futures, have a tight supply-demand relationship on the spot, or have sufficient confidence in future price movements on the spot, with overall optimism in the market。
2. Futures premiums: commodity futures prices, such as peanuts, pvc, methanol and sugar, are higher than current prices, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations of forward supply or the existence of a certain storage cost premium, which requires vigilance against the risk of forward price reversals。
3. Characteristics of product classification: high volatility in agricultural products, energy base differentials and high market sensitivity to spot supply and demand; positive base differences in black chain screwd steel, iron ore, strong spot end, reflecting demand for spot in capital and property chains。
Iii. The trade revelation
1. Arbitrage opportunities: spot-based arbitrage of futures (e. G. Low-sulphur fuel oil, eggs) may be considered if the spot-end has sufficient supply to take into account the arbitrage strategy for the purchase and sale of futures。
2. Inverse arbitrage opportunities: the variety of futures lifts (e. G. Peanuts, pvc), if the demand is uncertain in the long term, attention will need to be paid to the risk of futures recall or spot build-up opportunities。
Notes:
Main base difference = spot price - future master contract collection price; base rate = ( spot price - future price)/ spot price x 100%。
The price of gold, platinum and platinum is in $/g, silver in $/kg, crude oil in $/drum and the rest in $/t。
3. This data is organized on the basis of the 14 april closing, with real-time fluctuations in the base data, influenced by multiple factors such as industry supply and demand, stock changes and macro-policy, for information purposes only, and does not constitute an investment recommendation。
The article is from ai. I am not responsible for the authenticity of the text。
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14 april 2026
