Ten years of futures trading, three times after the explosion, i realized: the real timing of entry is the opposite of what you learned
Last month, a brother of methanol sent me a message at 2:00 a. M.: "brother, i'm blowing up again."
I didn't come back. Not indifferent. I don't know what to say. This is the second time he's blown up this year, every time for the same reason -- "i see the mcd gold fork, and it's broken, as the textbook says."
Textbooks are true. The wrong thing is that you treat them as a map that doesn't lie。
This map of the futures market is redrawn by the main forces every second。
I've been in business for 10 years, three silos, an account from 1 million to 80,000, and a band from 80,000 to 2 million. If i don't want to talk to you today, i want to talk to you about the most fundamental and deadly question:
When are you supposed to get in
The answer may be the opposite of all your past perceptions。
Why is the entry point for textbooks often the starting point for loss
First of all, ask yourself the question: under what circumstances are you the most prone to “single impulses”
The probability is two:
1. Prices have reached new or lower levels, and you feel that the trend has been established。
A technical indicator in a low-level fork or high-level fork, you feel “a signal has arrived”。
These two feelings have a common name -- the comfort zone。
What do you mean, "comfort zone"? It's just that market trends are exactly the same as what you've learned and what you've expected in your heart, and you think you've got it。
But that's exactly what's going to cost you the worst。
What is the main fund working on every day? They don't study business, they study the “comfort zone” of the diaspora。
When you think you're going to have to go after it, the main force will make a pretty breakthrough in a critical position, trick you in, and then you'll have to dump the product back to you. When you think that kdj's low-level gold fork should go up, the main force can drop the price by 20% after the gold fork, to everyone's suspicion of life。
This is not conspiracy theory; it is the most basic game logic of micromobility: certainty, as most people see, must be wrong。
So here comes the first conclusion:
The right entry times often occur when you are “most uncomfortable” — that is, when most people feel they are “reversely going”, they don't understand”, they are afraid to do it。
Three operationally tested “anti-human entry models”
The next three models, which i didn't copy from the book, were bought in the market with real silver and silver. Every one of them makes me double。
Model one: fake break-in-the-turn-out-scrambling
Let's start with a real case。
In november 2023, screwdriver steel, the solar line shattered in one compartment for three weeks. On a night drive, the price suddenly rises in straight lines, breaking through the top of the zone, and the turnover is magnified to double the normal rate. That's when the crowd blew up: "break! The screws are 4,000!"
If that's what you thought, congratulations, you're the prey of the master。
Ten minutes later, prices fell fast, not only falling back inside, but also breaking the break point. Fifteen minutes on the k line left a long uplink, like a face mocking at the ostrich。
Why is this the best time to get to the list
Because the main forces have done their standard: first, pay the price up, attract the windmills, and then pour all the high chips to them. When windmills run out, prices fall。
At this point in time, the damage is stopped at a price above the top of the film line, and the gain or loss is usually 1:5 or higher。
It's not your enemy. It's a “reverse ticket” from the main force。
Model ii: the second light after the crash -- the correct position of the bottom
The four words “touch the bottom” are referred to in the futures circles as “the new hands kill the four words”。
But to be honest, how many of those who really make big money haven't copied it? The difference is that the rookies copy half of the hill and the proficient copy on the tails of the main force。
How do you judge that the main force is built in real time instead of lying again
Remember an iron law: the real big bottom, never a v-turn。
After the first collapse, 99 per cent of the rebound was driven by empty silos, the so-called “empty backlash”. This rebound is fast and fast, but usually does not last long. As soon as he saw it, he thought he had seen it, and went in — and was buried alive by the second wave。
The real bottom must go through such a complete process:
1. First wave rebound (empty flat + bulk bottom)
2. Second dive (to break the dispersive damage and the confidence of many people)
3. Low innovation (this is the most critical detail)
4. 5-day mean line at the second yang station (the main force begins to eat real food)
Your position is not on the first day of the crash, not on the first day of the rebound, but before the second warm-off luminous plate closes, after a second dive。
What do most people think at this time? "let's go back and see." no one else dares, you enter. When people chase, you pour them。
The first is for ghosts, the second is for your people。
Model iii: open 15 minutes of cold-eyed viewing -- the best way to get in if you don't
It's the most common sense that makes me rich。
I've seen too many traders, and i can't wait to open a warehouse at 9:00 a. M., like i'm gonna miss a billion a second later. Indeed, the period 9 to 9:15 is the moment when global information is released, overnight emotions are the craziest, space is the most irrational。
Price volatility at this time is largely based not on rational pricing but on:
• the family saw the mood of the outside world rising and falling
• centralization of overnight loss or loss orders
• an instinctive response to a high, low, high, high, high, high, low, low, low, high, high, high, high, high, high, high, high, high, high, low, low, low, low
It's the same period of time as the blindfolded wire。
My iron law is: the first 15 minutes are nothing. Let's get rid of the first wave of madmen. A second 15 minutes (9:15-9:30) is then observed, and the price is returned to the first 15 minutes opening slot。
• if back: it means that today's fluctuations have been digested and that the rate behind it is the shock market. Look up and down the road, it's a small loss and a better profit or loss。
• if not: it means that today is a powerful unilateral market (high or low). In such cases, do not pursue, wait patiently for the first call back in the day and enter in the form of “air refuelling”。
In this habit, let me reduce the daily loss by at least 60%。
In the futures market, tolerance of 15 minutes is more useful than the study of 15 indicators。
It's..
Iii. Consider how to die before entering
Having said so much about the approach to entry, one last thing is more important than entering。
Before you go in, you have to figure out one question: if this list is wrong, where am i supposed to recognize it
A lot of people came in and thought, "oh, my god, i'll look at it again. It'll probably bounce back." then the more you look at it, the more you look at it, the more you turn it from a small loss to a bomb。
The correct sequence is to determine the position to stop the loss and then reverse the launch site。
For example, if you use a fake break-through model to empty it, the loss is the one-two minimum change in price above the top point. Take a look at how far the damage is, and whether the target gain/loss ratio is more than 1:3. Yes, it does. No, no。
A point of entry that does not know where to stop, is a one-way ticket to the crater。
It's..
At the end
The nature of the timing of futures transactions is not “precisionly bought at the lowest point” or “tracked at the point of detonation”。
Its essence is one word:
The place where you enter must be “a wrong place”。
The more comfortable you go in, the more you lose. The more you hesitate, doubt, discomfort, the more likely it is to be a real flashpoint。
It's the same as many things in life — the right thing, often at the beginning。
What textbook entry did you get? Are you going to break the chase and get killed, or are you going to copy it down half the hill? The comment section says it's a memory。
(it is also welcome to say that you have used the “anti-human approach” to learn from each other and earn less
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