The difference has now reached -0. 71/kg, which is considerably higher than -0. 54/kg for the same period last year. What does that mean? The increase in price differentials, such as the purchase of cars, the standard version and the longer version, suggest that the market demand for “longer” pigs is rising。
As the weather cooled, the southwest began to make meat, sausages. Plus the late spring festival of 2026, the pickle season was almost two weeks longer than in previous years. The price of pork is not high now, and the population prefers to buy more fat pigs for the taste。
Experience shows that during winter and the end of the year, the difference in the price of fertilizer is usually the largest in a year. The reason is simple — it's almost new year — that the southerners need more fat pigs to cook, and the farmers are willing to grow them for a while. One more day in the column, more than multiples, less short-term supply on the market, and the price is naturally easy to move up。
The supply structure has changed, and the pig industry is holding
The number of pigs in the hands of the diaspora this year is 15 per cent less than last year, while the proportion of large pigs above 140 kg in the total pool rose to 22 per cent. This is less than market vendors, but the proportion of high-end vegetables has increased。
Industrialists noted that, against the backdrop of a decrease in the availability of bulk pigs, it was likely that the price of the pig, as the preferred raw material for cooking, would rise first and then drive the average pig price back up. In kawasu, for example, 300-400 pounds of big pigs have already accounted for 35 per cent of the local slaughterhouse purchases, an increase of 8 percentage points over the previous year, showing how eager local markets are for big pigs。
But it's true. It's good and hard to land
Supply pressure is still in place, and the number of pigs out is expected to increase
Although the difference in the price of fertilizer is increasing, the pressure on the supply side has not diminished at all. This week's price differential increased by only $0. 01 per kg, largely static, suggesting that the market's ability to actually digest pigs did not increase significantly。
According to the data in the column, in october the proportion of pigs in the 90-140 kg leg was 36. 22 per cent, 1. 68 per cent higher than in the same period last year. This means that a large number of standard and medium-sized pigs will come out of the columns in the next 1 - 1. 5 months. And it's time for the first half of the year for the second-born fertilizers specializing in pig farming。
Inadequate demand-side boost and wide regional variation
Instead of rising, the rate of start-up of slaughterhouses in the country dropped by 0. 03 percentage points, as did sales of fresh meat by 0. 09 percentage points. This suggests that final consumption is not sufficient to accommodate pigs。
The demand for meat in the south-west was indeed on the rise, and business orders for meat in sichuan increased by 20 per cent, but the boom in one place did not boost the national market. In henan, for example, only 18 per cent of the local slaughterhouses purchase big pigs, which is 5 percentage points lower than last year. This indicates that the demand for big pigs remains weak in areas where meat is not available。
It's not going to change anything
The winter was indeed a high-prevalence period for pigs, with recent sporadic cases of african swine plague and blue ear disease in many parts of the north, but the survival of pigs remained above 95 per cent based on a well-developed vaccination system. The impact of the epidemic on overall supply patterns is limited。
According to the ministry of agriculture and rural development, the capacity of the whole country to keep the load of pigs is still 2 per cent higher than normal, the basic aspects of the excess capacity of the raw pigs remain unchanged, and the short-term epidemic is not a key factor in changing supply and demand in the market。
Where's the future price
Short-term: too many big pigs and very low prices
From the supply side, the increase in the supply of big pigs in november-december is expected to be 15 per cent more than the increase in demand. This is mainly due to the concentration of second-born pigs who were previously added to the columns, while the pig farms are also being increased in order to meet their annual exit targets。
Data show a 10 per cent increase in the planned rollout of pig farms in november, leading to a significant increase in the supply of big pigs in the market. Despite the price advantage of the pig and the widening of the fertilizer differential, this spread has not led to an overall increase in pig prices。
Medium- and long-term: reduced capacity will determine price trends
The adjustment of capacity for the production of hogs is limited and the industry has not yet reached the stage of proactively reducing capacity. As can be seen from the number and price levels for the elimination of the sows — the price of the sows is 10 per cent higher than the normal level, indicating that the breeders are still waiting for the significant elimination of the sows。
Under these circumstances, the market is likely to be “pre-lower and behind” in 2026. In the first half of the year, affected by the high levels of the capable sow column, the pressure on the raw pig supply will not diminish and the average price is likely to remain close to the cost line (12-13 yuan/kg)。
