After a bottom-up recovery at the end of february, the prices of common vegetable basket pork have accelerated since may, with wholesale prices at the beginning of june rising by more than 20 per cent in the same year. According to industry sources, the continued increase in pork prices has been largely due to the fact that some companies have not fully absorbed the cost implications of last year's winter disease, and that the price of raw pigs in the three quarters has remained relatively high。
The price of pork has risen since april
A review of a number of new and fresh powerer platforms found that there had been a marked increase in pork prices in the recent past. In the case of the main varieties of ice-coated front-leg meat, small-skinned meat, for example, the price per box of 300 grams of ice-coated front-leg meat on the box platform rose from $5. 76 in april to $9. 8, and the price of 170 grams of sun-skinned meat in april from $9. 55 to $12. 9. Another fresh platform, tinker bell, has recently raised the price of ice pork. Of these, the price of a daily small carcasses of 170 grams rose from $9. 9 to $13. 8, while the prices of front leg meat, post-legged meat, etc. Also increased significantly。
Just at the beginning of this month, when consumers learned that the day before the skin was 12 yuan per pound, the day before it rose to 13 yuan per pound, they lamented that the price of meat had risen too quickly, and the vendor said: “it has recently taken up a price per day, 13 dollars per day today is too expensive to buy, perhaps 14 pounds tomorrow.”
In fact, since april this year, pork prices have begun to rise significantly。
According to the national statistics institute, the national consumer price increased by 0. 3 per cent in april, of which the price of meat fell by 3. 2 per cent, but the price of pork rose by 1. 4 per cent, affecting the cpi by about 0. 02 percentage points; however, on average from january to may, the price of pork increased by 5. 1 per cent compared to the same period the previous year。
On 12 june, the national statistical office published a may cpi showing a 0. 3 per cent increase in consumer prices throughout the country. The increase of 4. 6 per cent in the price of pork affected the cpi by about 0. 05 percentage points. The sharp increase in pork prices directly raised the average increase from january to may to 1. 1 per cent, affecting the cpi by about 0. 01 percentage points。
Data from the ministry of agriculture and rural development indicate that since may, the average wholesale price of pork has increased for three consecutive weeks and the ring-to-seat increase has increased by week. According to the latest weekly report, during the week of 31 may-6 june, the national wholesale price of pork was 23. 28 yuan/kg, an increase of 7. 3 per cent in the ring and 20. 7 per cent in the same year。
Last winter's disease cost a lot
Behind the rapidly rising price of pork is the price of raw pigs。
Since this year, the average sale price of raw pigs in the maharahara shares has risen from $13. 84 in january to $15. 52 in may to $4. 86 per cent in the company's average sale price in may。
The sales bulletin of the new wish to be disclosed shows that the average price of the company's merchandise pig sales has climbed from $13. 30 per kilogram in january this year to $15. 42 per kilogram in may of this year, with a change of 1. 92 per cent in the ring for may and 8. 59 per cent for the same month。
According to institutional data, during the last cycle (from 2018 to early 2024), the losses experienced by the pig farming industry were much longer and deeper than the historical cycle, and pork prices were or would continue to climb。
As of 6 june, the cost of out-of-pocket fattening pigs was approximately 13. 72 yuan/kg, while the cost of out-of-pocket fatty pigs was approximately 12. 43 yuan/kg, a decrease of approximately 1. 07 and 1. 80 yuan, respectively, compared with the average cost per kilogram in the first quarter of 2024 and a decrease of 1. 70 and 3. 72 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2023. While the cost of most listed companies has continued to decline, with some of the leading firms falling relatively significantly, others have yet to fully absorb the cost implications of last year's winter epidemic, and costs remain relatively high。
Changes in the may round-up of the femininity pig stock, monitored by the two institutions, showed increases of 0. 73 per cent and 0. 71 per cent, respectively, in the may round-table round-ups, which were 0. 2 and 2. 9 percentage points lower than last month. According to feedback from the gain-based data, the slowdown in the increase in the availability of sows in may was mainly due to the completion of the previous half-year-long refilling of pig farms, while large- and medium-sized pig farms are still cautious, with small variations in the number of sows of most sizes, a small increase in the number of enterprises, and a small reduction in production due to financial or epidemic effects。
Many listed companies say
There's no rush to expand
However, while the price of pork continues to rise, many companies remain cautious. According to a recent study conducted by the maharahara shares, the company has recently increased the number of able-bodied pigs by increasing their utilization efficiency. The follow-up company will plan reasonably for the number of pigs in the context of external market conditions, internal production operations and funding. The company has adopted a multi-consistent production model, which takes into account the overall flow planning of the herd and does not result in long-term pressure. The company has always insisted on robust production without adjusting the production and sales rhythm by predicting the price of pigs。
With regard to the reasons for the increase in the price of pigs, the maharahara shares indicate, on the one hand, the gradual emergence of pre-born pigs to produce energy, and, on the other hand, possible short-term disturbances such as secondary fertility, pressure bars, etc. In the long run, the price of raw pigs in the second and third quarters of this year will remain relatively high. Rather than overpredict price volatility, companies rely on internal technological innovation, production management, continuous lowering of farm costs and greater profitability through low-cost advantages。
New hope suggests that the price of pigs is bound to fluctuate in the short run, that it has risen earlier this year, that it is related to last year's northern epidemic, and that it is related to the operation of secondary fertility. With regard to whether the price of $20/kg of pigs could be maintained for a year, the executive director of the company, topaz hill, expressed his personal cautious optimism. This year, the company focused on stabilizing the overall size of its presence, focusing more on raising the capacity of pig farming. There are still groups in the market who use second-generation fertilizers to speculate, which could affect the short-term supply of pigs, so the price of pigs in the third quarter of this year will not be very low, but if everyone goes to the game for some time, the opportunity will not exist. The company will not be large in size in the short term。
