Yesterday, in a short video, i saw someone replaying the video of xie zhong's first financial interview many years ago
In the video, journalists referred to a point made by xie guojong that the housing bubble must be broken if the economic balance is to be restored。
In retrospect, most of his views at the time were forward-looking and many predictions were largely a reality。
And look at the current market data:
On the one hand, the shanghai used room broke a set of 14,000 on the internet 20 days before january, and the number of cards dropped for nine months
On the one hand, the data published by the national statistical office on january 19: 70 large and medium-sized cities fell in december 2025, with their second-hand rooms falling
There was no urban rise, and the second-hand house ratio in the first-line cities fell by 0. 9 per cent, and the third-line urban inventory demined for 24 months。
In such a contradiction, shen guo-chung's phrase, “the breaking of the housing bubble is a prerequisite for economic recovery”, was once again pushed to the forefront。
After all, the policy dividend, the innovative low interest rates on mortgages and the extension of tax incentives on replacements to 2027, can be seen as “to the bottom” or “to the bottom” or “to the bottom”
And i was asked, "is it true that the bubbles, the needs of those who left six wallets to buy a house, can't they be destroyed?"
Today, instead of singing too much or too much, i have the latest data for 2026, and i want to talk to you about the meaning behind this sentence of xie guo chong and about the truth about which we are the most concerned。
The first question: in 2026, the building had a heating signal and the foam was still there
The answer is very solid: yes, and it is slowing down the economy。
Many people have been deceived by local warming in shanghai and shenzhen without seeing the full extent of cruelty。
According to the analysis of guangchang's chief company of 21 january, the area sold in commercial housing is expected to decline by 6 per cent per year in 2026, and the decline in real estate investment, which has shrunk to about 10 per cent, has reduced its contribution to nominal GDP by 15 per cent, slowing GDP growth by about 0. 6 percentage points。
More crucially, the most recent central bank data show that, in january 2026, the national household income from mortgages was 33 per cent, and in some third- and fourth-line cities it was more than 40 per cent, and that the proportion of people who had just had to buy a home was as high as 28 per cent。
What does that mean? The wealth of most of our families is tied to houses, where people are afraid to consume and invest, and where money is not allowed to move except to repay their mortgages。
Goldman sachs predicts that china's GDP will grow by 4. 8 per cent in 2026, but with greater policy easing, the existence of a housing bubble is the biggest impediment to policy dynamism – money sunk in the city, the real economy was left without blood transfusions, and so-called economic recovery was nothing more than an avalanche。
Second question: why are you so afraid of the pumping foam
I find it interesting that our chinese obsession with the house has gone beyond “inhabitation” itself to “asset anxiety”。
From 2008 to 2025, the building market rose, creating a “buy-up-no-lose” inertia, with the tacit acceptance that “houses will only rise and not fall”, and even with the idea that houses are “assistment of old age”。
A study by industry associations in the first quarter of 2026 shows that, even now, there are many who are convinced that house prices are “just temporarily adjusted”, preferring to have a high monthly supply rather than to sell at reduced prices, fearing “loss of capital”。
Even more so, many people equate “spread bubbles” and “crash of buildings” with “negative assets” when they see their houses broken。
It has been forgotten, however, that xie guo-chung's words of “stabbing” are not “explosion”, but rather squeeze out water to return the house to its residential properties。
Those renters had left early, and their assets were scattered in a variety of areas, including stocks, funds, etc., without fear of falling house prices
What is really afraid of is the immediate need to get in the car, which is at the heart of our struggle — the need to sacrifice what just needs for economic recovery
The third question: is it really the only way to recover
My answer is: yes, and the only shortcut. Many felt that the bottom floor city could boost the economy, but the data for 2026 had proved that such “oil-added tactics” were useless。
At the end of 2025, there were 76,632 square metres of stock to be sold in the country. Although the stock increase has been modest, the total is still large, and even if 300 billion yuan were invested in special-purpose debt, only 30 million square metres of stock could be brought to the market as a whole。
More importantly, the current market has been caught up in a cycle of “top-to-top deformities” — a vicious circle in the long run when housing prices are high, the real economy is squeezed, young people cannot afford to buy a house, they are afraid to marry and have children。
What is sobering is that he sees the dangers of this deformed cycle: stabbing bubbles, though with short-term pains, such as the continued decline in some urban housing prices and further card shuffles
In the long run, however, the potential for consumption can be unlocked only if water is squeezed out of the market to allow housing prices to return to a reasonable range, so that funds can be channelled to the real economy, such as high technology and manufacturing。
In conclusion, i would like to make a point. The 2026 building market was no longer the time for “buying a house behind closed eyes”。
Breaking the housing bubble will indeed be painful and will require some temporary pressure, but let us understand that it is a price to pay for economic recovery。
The more we drag buildings like a time bomb, the greater the damage to the economy, the greater the harm to our ordinary people。
In 2026, the separation of buildings will become increasingly apparent, with the core blocks of the first-line cities likely to be stable, but the road to stock in the third-line cities is still long, and the process of stabbing foams will be accompanied by policy precision regulation to protect immediate interests as much as possible。
