The failure of the july meeting to emphasize a stable city gave rise to a great deal of imagination。
Qinghua's rice aoi simply concluded that the chinese building had stabilized. This is a mindset of chinese scholars in judging trends in the building market: policy analysis。
In other words, the rise and fall in the chinese building market cannot be explained in terms of the "west's" supply-demand relationship, and policies that aim to stabilize the building market are likely to stabilize the market rate; it is also the "policy analysis method" used by ma guang. In the first half of 2024, yaoyang expressed pessimism, believing that the only option for saving the city was a real estate tax, which was certainly wrong, and that he was able to collect early, so he returned to adam smith's invisible hand, thinking that the house price fell by 40 to 50 per cent, and i didn't believe that nobody would buy it. Ma gwang listened and laughed, why, because he believed in the power of policy. His judgment is that the city will have a young youth and that the reason for this is the bottom line。
Does the policy analysis approach make sense? There's some reason。
Twenty years ago, in the era of china’s booming real estate, a non-mainstream scholar, xie guo zhong, offered to fall by 70 per cent, and a realtor at that time laughed, saying he didn’t understand china’s real estate. Indeed, not only did china’s house prices fail to fall by 70 per cent, but instead, it went up。
Can this prove the effectiveness of the “policy analysis approach”
Can't。
Since 2022, housing prices have begun to be unstable, markets have failed, and decrees such as the mountain, meng xiaosu consider that the overall price has fallen by 30 per cent, a conservative estimate; investment in real estate development fell by 12. 0 per cent in january-july 2025, housing construction fell by 9. 4 per cent, new construction by 18. 3 per cent and new commercial housing by 46 per cent. Faced with these figures, she doesn't know where she's confident。
Indeed, china’s property boss is right, and xi zhong zhong does not understand china’s real estate, because china’s real estate is not entirely an effective market, land policy is based on a single ownership system, local finance is the sole supplier of land, and it is important to have pricing power, which determines policy orientation. However, once the market economy is chosen, it is ultimately adam smith's invisible hand that can change the slopes, move the time window, be effective in the short term, move in the long run and avoid a backlash。
In time, she lost; in a full cycle she won again。
