On 11 may, the central bank announced that the median value of the renminbi against the united states dollar was 6. 8467, up 35 basis points from the date of the previous deal. The range is not large, but two details are worth looking at: the middle price has re-established to 6. 84 squares, and the price of the pound sterling and the yen has changed significantly. For ordinary people, it is not the word “market sentiment” that is most direct, but the daily expenses of study-attendance fees, out-of-country travels, and fishing, and, more than anything else, the question of whose books such changes are transmitted。
Look at the most sensitive end. According to the figures published on the same date, the euro intermediate price was 8. 0256, and the market price of pound9. 2498,100 stood at 4. 3533. According to the public offer, the renminbi to the japanese yen amounted to approximately 23. 0774. This means that people who are prepared to pay tuition in the united states, book hotels in the united kingdom and shop in japan would spend less on the renminbi in exchange for the same amount of foreign currency. The intermediate price is not the final bargain for the bank counter, but it is an important reference for market pricing, and bank deposits and business offers usually fluctuate around this anchor, so that 35 basis points, although small, are not abstract in terms of large expenditures。
The second is the balance sheet for foreign trade enterprises. The renminbi is strong, it is not easy for exporters who depend on the dollar for their return, and the same amount of money will decrease the amount of the renminbi that they will receive when they are remitted, with a greater sense of the industry with its already modest profits. In particular, long-term, early price orders, if not hedged, and exchange rate movements, make profits easy to eat. In foreign exchange markets, it is often stated that “intermediate prices are attitudes, and traded prices are costs” and that the real difficulty for enterprises is not a one-day rise or fall, but a time difference between offers, receipts and refunds, which can exacerbate exchange rate fluctuations into operational pressures。
Behind this change, the market is generally staring at two things: domestic fundamentals and the strength of the dollar itself. The reference to “the robustness of economic data and a weak dollar index” is not surprising. The exchange rate was never a one-sided story, and the renminbi was strong, with both its own factors and the reasons why the rivals were softening. More critically, the position of 6. 84 is interesting because it can easily influence market expectations. For the general population, the change in expectations is followed by a change in the pace of exchange; for enterprises, the change in expectations is accompanied by a change in the long-term convergence and locking arrangements. To put it bluntly, the effect of shifting the exchange rate from news figures to financial arrangements would be real。
There is also an easy-to-neglected segment where different populations feel exactly the opposite of the same exchange rate. Those preparing to leave the country would feel that the renminbi is more “flower-resistant” in their hands, and that the pressure on importing firms to purchase raw materials and equipment would ease; but exporting firms, especially those that compete for prices, would not necessarily laugh. This is also why exchange rate movements cannot simply be understood as “goods for all”. It is more like a screening: those who rely on low-priced purchase orders are more passive; those who have brands, bargaining power and exchange-rate management tools are more able to withstand fluctuations. In the past, a number of manufacturing enterprises have begun to treat forward closings and options avoidance as a routine move, not to gamble, but to save profits。
For ordinary people, the most practical judgement now revolves around demand itself. In the near future, there are people who pay for study abroad, travel on tourism, and are in need of consumption, and they can consider shifting their money in instalments, reducing the risk of a one-time bet on a certain point; there is no need to follow the wind because there are dozens of basis points in the day. Foreign exchange transactions are volatile and cost-effective, and there is an inherent difference between the price of a bank's bid and the price of a purchase price, which is often volatile and not necessarily cheap. It is even more interesting to note whether the subsequent intermediate price is consistently biased, whether the united states dollar index will continue to weaken, and whether the actual bank-end remittance prices reflect this wave simultaneously. It's not the headline that really affects the wallet, it's the day you're ready to pay, the deal from the system。
