In recent days, the united cloud house data and telecommunications estates have published the 25 city real estate investment rate list, which selects 25 typical cities, such as beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen, zhengzhou, chongqing and wuhan, to provide a more accurate and predictable analysis of the investment of a large number of home buyers, based on static rentals, long-term leases and three investment indicators after five years of lease。
The 25 city real estate investment return list, which is a series of lists, will be presented according to the four categories of property, namely, general housing, high-end housing, writing buildings and shops. The 25 city homes investment return list is presented during this period。
In the first half of 2018, the national market for luxury houses was generally stable and renting. At the policy level, the price-limits issued by the government have curbed the price increase for new houses and to some extent affected the second-hand housing market. On the bank side, the loan line has been tightened, interest rates have risen, and the threshold for house purchases has increased significantly. Unlike the buying and selling market, the leasing market has received increased policy support. As a sign of market change, the “rent-to-sale right” augurs well for a future increase in the rent share of luxury houses, where quality rentals will raise the rental demand。
The credit has been tightening
It's a good policy to raise the rent
In the first half of 2018, the prices of 15 urban mansions, monitored by cloud house data, continued to show an upward trend, but the increase continued to fall, increasing by 6 per cent over the same period, narrowing by 3 percentage points from the second half of 2017. Under the influence of policies such as “rent-to-sale rights”, the average rent in the first half of 2018 was $637/m2/year, an increase of 3. 1 per cent. On the one hand, more developers are set up to rent and new forces, such as institutional investors and banks, are joining; on the other hand, tighter regulation has led to sub-leases by house buyers who are partially out of line with the limited purchase policy, and has boosted the dynamism of the rental market。
In the first half of 2018, shanghai remained the most expensive, with an average value of $108848/m2; the average price of the beijing mansion fell by 7. 8 per cent each year, below the average price in shanghai and shenzhen; and the prices of the majority of the cities were still on the rise, with hangzhou (building block) increasing by 23. 4 per cent。
Beijing, shanghai and shenzhen are among the top three cities, with an average annual rent of over 1,000 yuan per square metre. In comparison with the increase in rent in the cities, except for shenyang, ningbo and qingdao, the remaining cities experienced varying degrees of rent increases, with a larger increase of 15. 1 per cent and 11. 2 per cent in shenzhen。
Benefit from returning to the permanent residence
Short-term rent won't win the house price
In the first half of 2018, the price of luxury houses remained on the upward trend, so the five-year resale rate continued to rise slightly. The return on long-term leases increased by a small 0. 2 percentage point with the dynamism of the rental market, but the return on static leases declined slightly owing to lower rent increases than prices。
Overall, the return on investment in the first half of 2018 in the area of urban luxury remains low. The static lease rate of return was below 2 per cent, with the remaining cities showing a downward trend except for a small increase in shanghai; the long-term lease rate had ended the second half of 2017 and all other cities, with the exception of shanghai, experienced a small decline, except for a 1 percentage point increase; shenzhen was ranked first and second in guangzhou in the current five-year lease and the cloud house data centre predicted that the gap in the resale rate would be reduced in the next five years in the first-line city。
The cloudhouse data centre is of the view that, as markets move into a smooth development phase and rental-sales system, the price of first-line urban mansions will not be repeated and the rate of resale returns will remain stable。
Sean, shenzhen's best investment
Governor hang's lease rate of return
The first half of 2018 was heavily regulated, and over a period of six months more than 150 new buildings were introduced in various cities throughout the country, with the first two hotspots bearing the brunt. In beijing, the continued tightening of regulations, limited prices for commodity houses and the curtailment of demand for improved types have led to a decline in the price of luxury houses and a lower rate of return on resales after five years of lease; shenzhen has the highest rate of return after five years of lease, owing to the large increase in house prices between 2013 and 2018。
In the context of policies to combat investment, curb improvements and protect immediate demand, the “four-limit” (restricted purchases, limited lending, limited prices, restricted sales) cities will continue to expand in the future, with the price increase for luxury homes slowing further, and most cities showing a resale rate of return or declining trend。
The cloud house data, combined with future resale and long-term lease returns for 15 urban mansions, assessed the real estate investment programme and produced a map of the value of housing investments in the mansions. The assessment shows that the cities most suitable for investment are xian and shenzhen, the cities that are suitable for long-term leasing are chongqing, the cities that are suitable for short-term holding and sale are hangzhou, and the cities that are least suitable for holding are ningbo。
In terms of static rental rates of return, the overall static rent rate is declining, with 15 cities having a static lease rate of between 0. 9 and 2. 3 per cent at a low level, and the shenyang static lease rate of return increasing by 0. 38 per cent around the city, as most urban houses continue to experience higher rent increases。
In terms of long-term lease rates, the houses of sian, chongqing and shenyang are more valuable for investment, with sian having the highest return of 7. 2 per cent. In nanjing (building), qingshima and hangzhou, rent increases in the first half of 2018 were lower than prices, leading to a decline in the long-term lease rate of return ring, which was lower in 15 cities. Hangzhou increased prices in the first half of 2018, while rents did not rise significantly, resulting in long-term rent returns at the bottom of 15 cities。
