He's a reporter at the grand river
At the end of 2018, several cities opened their mouths to deregulation, which caused the 2019 building market to become confused. How's the city going in 2019? House prices will rise or fall? What are the factors? The reporter of the greater river newspaper invited experts from the industry to analyse the data in conjunction with the zhengzhou building。
Central set
Every year the city moves, the city is guided by the central spirit. So where the wind goes, where the market goes。
Analysis:
The importance of “stable” (stable land prices, stable housing prices, steady expectations) being at the top of the 10 priority tasks of the ministry of housing and construction in 2019 is self-evident. For the real estate market, stability prevails. It should be noted that stability is in fact a two-way adjustment, and that the surge is not stable, nor is the collapse. The recent central economic work conference also proposed the establishment of a mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market。
The central economic work conference raised the issue of maintaining the location of the house as a dwelling, not as a fireman. The ten priority tasks of the ministry of housing and construction in 2019 clearly stated that it was necessary to maintain the position that “the house is for living, not for fire”, and that the tone was once again given to the group that had just bought it。
According to professor qin suhong, faculty of engineering management and real estate of the university of economics and economics of henan, with increased pressure on the economy in 2019, active fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy will continue. The focus of the city's work will be on stable land prices, stable house prices and steady expectations, and the tone of the “shelter-free house” will not change, and the policy will be more refined through city planning and classification guidance. Five successive reductions, with mortgage interest rates at a low level, remain the main source of market demand。
In the view of zhang nam ning, the director of the land marketing centre, it is clear from the degree of strictness of the historical regulation policy of zhengzhou that 2018 has reached a historically low point, and that, based on the actual level of engagement in 2018, the overall deal is still strong, combined with government documents and press reports in recent years, influenced by the overall downward pressure on the economy in various regions, and that real estate policy regulation will be relaxed next year。
Supply-demand relationship
The price of goods is determined by the supply-demand relationship, and over the past five years the growth rate of municipalities and county cities has been much higher than that of zhengzhou, in terms of the size of housing construction. As a consequence, in zhengzhou, where there is an influx of people and where housing demand is greater, the supply is inadequate compared to the volume of sales, and the prices of houses are constantly rising。
Analysis:
Since 2011, the annual growth in zhengzhou has been 155,000-230,000. At the beginning of the new year of 2019, authoritative data showed that zhengzhou's population had surpassed 10 million. Zhengzhou became the second city in the centre of the six provincial capitals to join the “millions of clubs” of the population. The future population of zhengzhou will continue to increase significantly with the continuation of the zheng ji ji ji-chung talent policy and the gradual lowering of the threshold for the integration of the foreign population. The plan of action for the construction of national centres in zhengzhou states that the resident population of zhengzhou will be 11 million by 2020 and 13. 5 million by 2035。
On the supply side, zhang nam ning gave a set of data, with commercial houses in all of zhengzhou closed in 2018, providing 146. 9 million square metres in the year, compared to 18 per cent, and 13. 17 million square metres in the year, corresponding to +14 per cent, achieving a price of $13,767/m2, corresponding to +11 per cent, with higher price increases. During the year, 11 million m2 or 13 per cent were supplied in commercial dwellings; 1,096 million m2 or 20 per cent were traded, at a price of $13723/m2 or 13 per cent. In conjunction with zhengzhou's entry into a large city of more than 10 million people, there is still a strong demand for commercial housing, and the demographic dividend remains strong。
Land price drive
In addition to the strong demand for, and demand for, the commercial housing market, the main reason for the boom in housing prices in zhengzhou is the tight supply of land, which can lead to a rapid rise in social expectations of rising housing prices。
Analysis:
How much did china sell in 2018? According to the china institute of indexing studies, the income from selling land in 300 cities alone amounts to 4. 17 trillion yuan and the total national income from selling land is estimated at more than 5. 5 trillion yuan. This figure, which is more than 2017, corresponds to the sum of national corporate income tax and personal income tax. Zhengzhou sold 10,636 million yuan of land in 2018, a 24 per cent increase over 2017 and ranked sixth in the country。
According to wang jindong, an expert in property in zhengzhou, selling land in exchange for income supports urban expansion, which is the underlying logic of land finance over the past 20 years. The high cost of flour, which in turn stimulates the price of bread, is also a major factor in the continued rise in house prices。
Banking attitudes
It is easy for ordinary buyers to look at the market, that is, at the bank's attitude towards buying loans. In general, the loose hand of the bank indicates that the market is looking well, that the investment is bulging and that the price of the house is generally on the rise; the tight hand of the bank is an indication of increased market risk, policy regulation, the withdrawal of investors, the overwhelming majority of the sellers are anxious, buyers are looking, and the price of the house tends to decline。
Analysis:
Recently, the central bank announced an expansion of targeted reductions, which would also be of great benefit to the market. This means that institutions that previously did not meet the target reduction range are expected to make up for the “cut-down” benefits. As central banks lower in the future, releasing funds will make banks less resource-efficient in the future, and rising mortgage or mortgage interest rates will ease。
Journalist visits revealed that the first home mortgages of commercial banks are currently available in guangzhou city. Interest rates have been revised downwards to 25 per cent upwards, with the construction of first-class mortgages in four main lines interest rates continue to rise by 30 per cent, but individual branches of the farm, bank for peace and zhengzhou bank may adjust to 20 per cent as appropriate. Industry experts believe that there is still a possibility of a downward revision of zhengzhou mortgage rates in 2019。
Increase in lease
The 10 priority tasks of the ministry of housing and construction in 2019 state that large mega-cities and large cities with high population inflow and high housing prices need to build up their stock of land, accelerate the construction of rental housing and effectively increase their efficient supply. This is good news for renters, and an increase in the supply will make rentals easier, or will become more popular。
Analysis:
On the morning of 11 january, a press conference was held by the people's government press of henan province to inform the media about the construction of apartments for young talent, which was listed as one of the key public events in henan in 2018。
In practice, work began in 2018 in the province and the city of zhengzhou to build approximately 5. 14 million apartments for young talent. Of these, approximately 258,000 units have been built directly in the province, mainly in 10 areas, including the dragon lake group, the golden water zone zone zone, the xuan zone, and the airport zone, with a total of 60 square metres, 90 square metres and 120 square metres. At the same time, the project areas are basically accompanied by public services such as kindergartens, primary and secondary schools, parking lots, hospitals and supermarkets. By the end of 2018, all 10 project construction units had been completed。
In zhengzhou, some 25,600 units are currently under construction. With regard to rent, the responsible official stated that the initial consideration for rent rates would not be higher than 70 per cent of the equivalent market rent and would be adjusted in due course in the light of changes in relevant factors. It can be said that as the government continues to invest more in rental security housing, the future will be offset by higher housing prices。
Will the real estate tax come
The biggest suspense in 2019 will be the real estate tax。
According to many industry sources, there are no technical obstacles to the introduction of real estate taxes. There will be no restrictions at the technical level with regard to the unified registration of real estate, the national housing information network, the consolidation of national land taxes, and the automatic renewal of 70-year tenure rights。
“the introduction of a real estate tax requires a stable market environment.” the vice-president of the institute for government administration of the beijing teacher training university, song sing qing, believes that if the economy continues to decline and new taxes are imposed, it will be difficult to obtain the approval of society as a whole and the introduction of real estate taxes will inevitably be hampered. If the trends in the downstairs were to increase, and if real estate taxes were to be introduced, they would act as a catalyst, increasing the possibility of the downstairs。
The more stable the market, the higher the house prices, the sooner the real estate tax arrives. The lower the market, the more cautious the real estate tax. Clearly, the real estate tax of 2019 may begin to be consulted, but it is still a distance from official landing。
Which areas are hot
As housing enterprise financing increases, it becomes apparent that the pressure of cash flow pushes will accelerate, and multiple marketing instruments will work, predicting that the volume of new trades will remain stable throughout 2019 compared to 2018, with a slight recovery in overall prices, but with a marked fragmentation of the plates。
According to zhang nanning's analysis, in the light of the actual trade in 2018, regional and demand values are on a solid basis, as evidenced by the sale of nearly $6 billion on a single drive, which has increased in volume within downtown zhengzhou. At the same time, a significant increase in peripheral areas was observed. Combining data from the first-tier land market and sales from the second-tier market, the zhengzhou ring area, such as the airport area, the sunyang region, and the outer hotspots, will be covered in the next 2019, with new collages in the city's high new zone, the town area and the golden water area。
