International oil prices fell sharply after opec+ reached a cut-off agreement。
On the evening of july 18, beijing time, opec convened the 19th joint ministerial oversight committee (jmc). After the meeting, opec announced that opec and non-opec oil producing countries had agreed to increase their total production by 400,000 barrels per month from august to a reduction of 5. 8 million barrels per day until phase-out。
At the same time, starting in may 2022, the production baselines of the united arab emirates, saudi arabia and russia were raised。
The participating countries will continue to hold monthly meetings to assess the market situation and to determine the level of production for the next month in an effort to end production cuts by september 2022。
According to the communiqué, with the acceleration of the new crown vaccination campaign, economic recovery continued in most parts of the world, the basics of the oil market improved, there were clear signs of an increase in oil demand and a decline in oil stocks in the organization for economic cooperation and development countries。
As a result, as at 20 july beijing time, the august contract price of wti crude oil at the new york commodity exchange fell by $5. 39, or 66. 42 per barrel, to 7. 51 per cent, the largest single-day decline since 8 september。
The price of the london brent crude oil futures delivered in september fell by $4. 97 to $68. 62 per barrel, or 6. 75 per cent, the largest single-day decline since 18 march this year。
Today, the oil sheet in hong kong has been severely damaged. China's oil (00857. Hk) plate fell by about 6 per cent and china's marine oil (00883. Hk) and chinese petrochemicals (00386. Hk) plate by over 3 per cent。
As of the closing date, the hong kong oil company received hk$ 3. 24, a decrease of 3. 57 per cent; china ocean oil received $2. 53, a decrease of 0. 78 per cent; and china petroleum company received hk$ 3. 56, a decrease of 2. 73 per cent。
A share of oil is also falling. As at the time of the closing of the booking, he/she had received $20. 45, a decrease of 3. 49 per cent; he/she had received $8. 94, a decrease of 1. 54 per cent; he/she had received $4. 7 per cent for oil (601857. Sh), a decrease of 0. 84 per cent; he/sher technology (300084. Sz), a decrease of 1. 55 per cent; he/she/aipu (300157. Sz), a decrease of 0. 76 per cent; and quasi-oil shares (00207. Sz), a decrease of 0. 52 per cent。
According to information analysis, the current crude oil market is affected by a number of factors. The direction for a gradual increase in opec production has been clarified, but the pace of the increase in opec supply has not matched the recovery in demand。
Goldman sachs also believes that the opec derogation agreement will result in modest increases in production, but the oil market will remain under-supply in the coming months. In addition, a gradual increase in production capacity would significantly address the current underinvestment。
Thus, despite the decline in short-term oil prices, a number of institutions have increased the forecast of crude oil futures prices this year。
In their view, opec had a limited increase in production in the short term, no significant increase in market supply, low downward pressure on oil prices and an agreement that reflected the expected growth of future supply in the market。
Swiss credit on 18 july indicated that the average price of brent crude oil in 2021 was expected to be approximately us$ 70/barrel, which was previously expected to be around us$ 66. 5/barrel, and that the average price of wti crude oil had been increased from the us$ 62 per barrel previously projected to us$ 67 per barrel. At the same time, the price of brent crude oil is expected to be $69 per barrel in 2022, compared to $68 per barrel previously anticipated。
Citigroup expects that the price of brent and wti crude oil futures will rise to $85 or more per barrel during the year。
In turn, according to information received, consultations between the united states and iraq on the nuclear issue are ongoing and iranian crude oil production will increase once the boots are landed. United states crude oil production is also on the rise, creating uncertainty about the supply side of the oil market. In addition, the spread of the epidemic in overseas countries continues to be acute, with market concerns about demand prospects。
The twentieth ministerial meeting between opec and non-opec oil producing countries is scheduled for 1 september this year。
As at around 17 p. M. On 20 july, international oil prices had recovered. The wti crude oil future price was usd 67. 16 per barrel and brent crude oil was usd 68. 97 per barrel。
