I. Flow of stock prices as at 9 april
Data at 22:11 as at 09. 04. 2026 show that the closing price for the aoyama paper industry (600103) was $3. 55 that day, a decrease of 4. 31 per cent compared to the closing price of $3. 71 yesterday. The maximum price was $3. 65 and the minimum price was $3. 51, with an opening price of $3. 63 and a turnover of $888. 8 million, with a turnover of $317 million and a exchange rate of 4. 02 per cent。
Analysis of the causes of the decline
(i) sectoral factors
On 9 april 2026, at 10. 33 p. M., the eastern wealth network reported 2555. 157 points in the special cardboard index, a drop of 2 per cent and a deal of 722 million yuan, or 1. 32 per cent. The top five of the boards fell the following: the aoyama paper industry ($3. 56, or 4. 04 per cent), the five counties paper (13. 95, or 3. 33 per cent), the colosseum news industry ($3. 59, or 3. 23 per cent), the constant new materials ($32. 50, or 2. 99 per cent) and the ibin paper industry ($18. 32, or 2. 5 per cent). As a result, the fall in stock prices in the qingshan paper industry may be affected by the overall decline in special cardboard blocks。
(ii) corporate fundamentals
In terms of company performance, the green mountain paper three-year bulletin for 2025 showed that the company's main business income in the first three quarters had been rmb 1,768 million, a decrease of 11. 87 per cent over the previous three quarters; net profits to mothers of 64,981 million, a decrease of 25. 07 per cent over the same period; and non-net profits of rmb 4,127. 35 million, a decrease of 27. 37 per cent over the same period. In the third quarter of 2025, the company earned $558 million per quarter, a decrease of 3. 46 per cent over the same period; $891. 01 million per quarter net profit to the mother, a decrease of 71. 82 per cent over the same period; $3. 7873 million per quarter net profit, a decrease of 82. 4 per cent over the same period. The decline in corporate performance may put some pressure on stock prices。
(iii) market sentiment factors
Market evasiveness could lead to financial outflows from highly volatile shares. Prior to that, on 3 march 2026, the stock of a was generally weak, with the above-named index falling by 1. 43 per cent on the same day, which was deeply evidence of a 3. 07 per cent drop, a rise in risk-averse attitudes in the market, an overall decline of 2. 67 per cent in cardboard blocks, a net outflow of $482. 72 million from the achilles paper owner, and a three-day net outflow, indicating a continued withdrawal of major funds, short-term market emotions, or the suppression of stock prices. Although no information was given on 9 april, fluctuations in market sentiment may still affect stock prices in the qingshan paper industry。
Analysis of future trends
(i) short-term trends
On the technical side, prior data show that the unit's leverage cost averaged $3. 76 in transaction costs, which has been reduced in recent times but to a lesser extent, and that the current stock price is close to the supporting position of 3. 48, with the risk of a downward spiral if the support position breaks. When stock prices fell on 9 april, the closing price was $3. 55, close to supporting positions, and in the short term close attention needs to be paid to whether the supporting position can effectively support the stock price. At the same time, major capital flows also have a significant impact on short-term equity price movements, which may continue to be under pressure if capital outflows continue, and if capital flows return, they are expected to rebound。
(ii) medium-term trends
In the medium term, the company's paper industry is influenced by, inter alia, pulp prices, the supply-demand relationship between the industry and environmental policies. Pulp costs increased in early 2026, and while paper price increases are expected to increase performance elasticity, market concerns about delays in the transfer of costs give rise to a mood of wait. If the prices of late pulp are stable or declining, and the company is able to effectively transfer costs to product prices, while the supply-demand relationship in the industry improves, it is expected that the company's performance will be enhanced, thereby supporting stock prices。
(iii) long-term trends
In the long run, the increase in the price of pulp and the trend of “paper plastics” provide an engine of growth for the paper industry. Galaxy instruments optimize production capacity through price increases and technology adaptation, and the aqama paper industry may benefit from a structural expansion of demand if it seizes the opportunities for industry upgrading. However, the firm's high market share (ttm), with data as at 3 march 2026 as high as 130. 88, is well above the market average, overvalued or constraining long-term rises, and requires attention to the ability to deliver performance. If a company can boost its market share, long-term equity prices or gradually repair it, it needs to be protected against the risk of volatility under high valuations。
Potential risk tips
1. Industry competition risk: the strong competition in the paper industry may lead to a decline in market shares and an impact on performance if the aoyama paper industry fails to remain competitive in terms of product quality, cost control, market expansion, etc。
2. Risk of fluctuations in raw materials prices: pulp is the main raw material in the paper industry, and fluctuations in pulp prices have a direct impact on the production costs and profits of companies. Continued increases in pulp prices and the inability of companies to transfer costs effectively will adversely affect corporate performance。
Macroeconomic and policy risks: changes in the macroeconomic situation, adjustment of environmental policies, etc. May have an impact on companies' production operations. For example, a downturn in the economy could lead to a decline in market demand and a tightening of environmental policies could increase environmental costs for companies。
4. High valuation risk: the firm's higher market share (ttm) and high valuations, and stock prices may face adjustment pressures if the company's performance fails to meet market expectations。
