After six months of grinding the bottom of the green mountain paper industry (600103), yesterday a one-off cap was stopped at $5. 20, an increase of 9. 94 per cent, a total turnover of $1,985 million, and a change of hands rate of 18. 21 per cent, directly breaching the shock platform of nearly six months. Many have read the breakout signal, but are afraid to catch up to it, and do not actually understand the core driver of the wave increase — not the paper price increase, but the expected explosion of the ai-ray module。
I. Disassembly: this is not a day-to-day trip, it's a kick-start signal for a bottom break
Disassembly today's profile, and every detail is sending a breakout signal:
- prices and trends: $4. 71 for start-up, $4. 63 for minimum bottom survey, and then a drop-up all the way up, with a final cut-off and a closing price of $5. 20, directly breaching the shock platform of $4. 7-4. 8 for almost six months, with all short-term averages on board, with clear signals of breakthrough on the technical side
- quantified structure: round-the-clock transactions amounting to 1,985 million, which is a direct doubling of the average turnover of 5 or 10 days, with a replacement rate exceeding 18 per cent, indicating that the six-month-old chips have been fully activated and that the incremental funds have entered the field and the relays are extremely strong
- mean pattern: the averages of 5 days, 10 days, 20 days and 30 days are all turned upwards, forming multiple heads, and the medium-term upward trend is well established, moving away from the six-month base
- critical position: the current equity price is $5. 20, short-term pressure levels above are in the range of 5. 5-5. 6 yuan, and $4. 7-4. 8 below are strong support positions after the breakthrough and a watershed in the current situation。
Rising core drive: the ai light module is the "real engine" and paper is a "smog bomb"
Many mistakenly thought that the boom was driven by paper price increases, but otherwise, the holding subsidiary's ai-ray module was the real core driver:
Sub-company resembling: "invisible" on the ai light module track
Shenzhen shenzhen's shareholding in the aoyama paper industry is an old domestic luminous modular manufacturer and a key mark in this round:
- direct demand for ai calculator: 400 g-ray modules have achieved small volume production, 800 g-ray modules have been designed, sample tested and are in the delivery phase, products are directly used for aiqc, data centre high-speed communications, and are “high-speed data channels” for the ai server
- full customer hard power: steady supply for global communications giants (bruadcom) for more than 20 years, as well as oem suppliers of large internet plants such as byte beats, technology and customers are internationally recognized and not simply “deep concepts”
- the turning point in performance: during the first half of 2025, there was an increase of 41 per cent in the year-on-year revenue of the probate company and a 247 per cent increase in net profits over the year. The successful loss and loss of the electronics business alone became the company's second growth curve, which, although currently a small share of the total, has radically changed the logic of market-to-company valuation。
2. Triple resonance: why now
- the spread of ai algorithms: the high valuation of high-level light modules, the start of the capital to tap low-cost, small-market value, light-module surges, the low-priced, medium-size dishes in the aoyama paper industry, and the perfect matching of the cost-sharing preferences
- 800 g-ray modules entered commercial night: in 2026, the year of the outbreak of the ai high-speed light module, the demand for the 800 g-ray module is expected to grow significantly, and the rhythm of the "400 g volume production + 800 g sample" of the round-up of the round-trip industry coincides with that of the central industry
- accumulation of the state's capital background, butff: the company's executives are the twin catalysts of the bnc, the reform of state enterprises and the new quality of productivity, which further boost market sentiment and provide additional support for stock price increases。
Iii. Post-market scenarios: two scripts, clearly identifiable
In combination with technological, financial and industrial catalysts, there are two main trends in the post-changshan paper market:
1. Major upswing duration (65 per cent probability)
- trigger conditions: high-speed and high-speed travel today, with a sustained expansion, with a turnover of more than 1. 5 billion and a firm seal; continuous fermentation of the ai-ray module and a catalytic industry
- predicatives of movement: after a break of $5. 20, new rises were opened, short-term target was $5. 5-6. 0, and medium-term trends continued upwards
- core support: bottom platform break + ai-ray module catalytic + funds resonance, triple logical support stock price increases。
2. High-level concussion digestion (35% probability)
- trigger conditions: high up and down today, shrinking in volume and slowing in quantities; and the emotional fragmentation of the ai plate and lack of wind
- predicatives of movement: after rushing, step back to the 4. 8-5. 0-dollar zone, entering the high-level shock phase, digesting the profit and pre-set pallets
- core risk: the short-term increase is significant and the profit inventory is meeting the pressure; if the light module business order falls short of expectations, it may lead to an emotional retreat。
Iv. Recommendations for crowd-segregation operations: strict discipline, no unilateral betting
Shareholders
- core principles: firmness, unbreakable trends: today's boom and halt, clear signals of bottom breakthroughs, firmness to hold and not to wash out as long as they do not break the 4. 7-dollar support
- proximity strategy: if tomorrow comes high, the volume can be continuously amplified, it can continue to be held, and the game owner rises, and if the high falls, there will be a drop in the amount, which can be 50 per cent higher and the profits locked
- disruption of discipline: strict adherence to the 4. 7 dollar supporting position, once effectively broken, decisive reduction, and avoidance of adjustment risks。
Watchers
- the absolute prohibition on high pursuit: the current stock price is at the bottom of the break, with a higher risk of direct pursuit and easy access
- low-suction strategy: stock price retrogression between 4. 8-5. 0 centimetres, which, after a steady contraction, can be low-suctioned in batches, with a layout rebound of up to 10 per cent of total funds
- break-through follow-up: wait for the stock price to reach $5. 5 to confirm that the main upswing is on, before pushing forward and not gambling ahead。
Risk tips
This paper is an exhaustive and industry logical analysis and does not constitute any investment proposal. The light-module operations in the qingshan paper industry are still low, performance performance is uncertain, stock price volatility risks are high, investors need independent judgement, and warehousing and risk are tightly controlled。
