At 2400 hours on thursday, the retail price limit for finished oil in the country will enter a new round of adjustment windows, and many agencies will point their judgement to a small upswing, with the owner's focus falling again on the gas station
In the current round of pricing cycles, the situation in the united states of america and the united states of america has led to renewed oil-market sentiment, resulting in high international oil prices, a negative shift in the rate of change in domestic reference crude oil and a shift in the direction of price adjustments
As of the closing date of 19 may, cretaceous data showed a crude oil reference rate of 2. 01 per cent for the ninth working day of the country and an upward adjustment of $90 per ton for diesel fuel, which was locked at 2400 hours on 21 may
The judgement given by wang jiuqing, the zhuang information analyst, is more direct, and the increase is close to being determined, with a final range of over $100 per ton, converted to the retail end, and gasoline 92 and diesel 0 is about 0. 09 per litre
A box of 50 litres of petrol, 92, which, according to this calculation, would increase expenditure by approximately $4. 5, which is not an exaggeration, but would allow many drivers to look at the gas table before they refuel
According to a similar judgement given by liu bingjun, the information and oil analyst of ryucheng, she expected to open again at 2400 hours on may 21, with an increase of approximately $90 per ton and an additional $5 for 70 litres of tanks
The two agencies have different paths of measurement and are close to each other, pointing to the same conclusion
Such judgements do not come empty, international crude oil rises significantly under geo-situations, market concerns about supply stability are rapidly amplified and domestic prices of finished oil are driven. Let's go
The domestic price-fixing mechanism for finished oils is clearly linked to international crude oil, and price fluctuations during the pricing cycle are directly reflected in retail price limits, and when the rate of change is positive, the upwards are expected to begin to dominate
Since this year, domestic oil prices have gone through nine rounds of adjustment, resulting in seven increases and one drop, with an uneven pace, and a cumulative upward pressure on diesel fuel prices
Based on open data, the price of domestic gas and diesel fuel increased by $2505 and $2415 per ton, respectively, from the end of last year to the end of the year, as measured by the situation in the united states and iraq
What this group of numbers means, a small upturn in a short period of time, just a cut across the cumulative year, but enough to keep travel costs moving up
The feeling in front of the gas station tends to be more direct than the price of a ton, and changes of $90 per ton are transmitted to a tank of oil, often with only a few dollars left, but a clear reminder to the owner that oil prices are changing
It should be noted that market expectations are ultimately expected and that the final outcome remains in line with the official communiqué of the national development reform commission, and that price increases and implementation times are based on official notifications
If you look at the owner of the car in his day-to-day fashion, the change begins with the cost of private car commuting, then it is transmitted to the internet, logistics distribution and short-distance transport, which will affect the path step by step
Interestingly, the industry's judgment of the rotation price is almost uniform, the differences are not in the direction, but, in the range, the emphasis is on small ups and downs, with a slight difference in the results
This difference is derived from their respective observations of the pace of international oil price volatility, as well as from their judgement of the movement of the last working days of the valuation cycle, in which the oil market regularly changes in terms of contraction or magnification
According to market feedback, the recent drivers of oil prices are not uniform, and geo-risks, crude oil stocks, futures finance sentiment, opec+ production arrangements, and dollar movements are influencing the price curve
The fact that eia inventory data in the united states always hold a place in the oil market and that crude oil prices often react instantaneously when stocks deviate from expectations is an important clue to follow-up
Another clue comes from the situation in the vicinity of the strait of hormuz, where any change in shipping safety as a key route to global energy transport could exacerbate tensions in the crude oil market
Compared to recent market performance, oil prices do not operate unilaterally in a straight line, but rather in a news-stimulated and repetitive manner, leading to highs and shocks, followed by a search for direction, which is why the agency emphasizes “vulse” rather than “one-way rise”
Many readers are concerned about whether the increase in oil prices will continue to expand, depending on the trend in international oil prices before the end of the pricing window, and the changes in the last trading days, which tend to determine the size of the scale
In the current information, the common judgement of the two bodies is sufficiently clear, the general rate of adjustment is directed upwards, and the limited space available for upward adjustments, which also means that the current round is not highly volatile, but rather a small correction
From a reader's point of view, the most direct feeling is not a ton price, but a tank full of oil will charge a few more dollars
It's also a feature of the product oil news, the macro-market changes that end up in the living scene, in the commuting, freight, distribution, taxis and cars
In the nine rounds of adjustment completed this year, markets have become accustomed to the pace of oil prices, with seven increases and one drop in a stranded combination, which also suggests that the price of finished oil does not continue to rise unilaterally, but rises in the cycle
This rhythm was particularly evident at the end of last year, when gas and diesel ton prices increased considerably, resulting in the retrofitting of terminal retail prices and the growing familiarity of the owner with the “over a few dollars”
If the timeline is extended, every rise in international oil prices is channelled to the refuelling chain through domestic pricing mechanisms, and this connection is more of a continuing concern than a single increase
A number of agencies, while tracking back markets, are also looking at the next round of price calculations, and if international crude oil falls in a short time, there is a risk that the price of the rotation will run aground, and if the geographical situation continues to be tense, upward pressure will remain
These judgements are not conclusive, but they help readers understand why oil prices are expected to change so fast, and the core still comes from instability in the crude oil market
For private car owners, 50 litres of oil tanks cost $4. 5 and 70 litres of oil tanks cost $5
As far as freight vehicles are concerned, the cost of bicycles increases as the mileage expands and eventually enters transport prices and the flow of goods, which is another layer of interest in oil price news
From the point of view of dissemination, the value of this message lies not only in the “sliding up”, but also in the fact that it places the international situation, domestic pricing, and the cost to the owner at the same time
The changes in the situation in the united states and iraq, the rise in international oil prices, the shift in the rate of change in the country, and the combination of the three links, form the full context of the upturn in the current round
And the measurements given by drazen and ryu, which provide a close reference to both directions and ranges, are very useful to readers in judging the impact
In this type of news, the accuracy of the figures is more important than emotional expression, 90 yuan/tonne, 0. 09 yuan/l, 4. 5 yuan, and 5 yuan, which together form the core contours of this rotation price
Some readers focus on "how much petrol is going to go up" and others look at "how much more is going to be spent" in each box
In terms of dissemination effects, combining ton prices, price increases, fuel tank costs is easier to understand than reporting a single increase, and to judge how much it will affect itself
This rotation price also reflects a clear characteristic of the distance between institutional assumptions and actual market movements, indicating that current oil market information transmission is more efficient and prices are more responsive
International oil prices, driven by geo-information, have led to higher rates of domestic change, and this path is clear and stable, explaining why the market has developed a consistent expectation ahead of the opening of the pricing window
For ordinary drivers, the most realistic approach remains to focus on official announcements, and once the official results of the national development reform commission are issued, refuelling at the implementation rate
If the combination of information in recent days also includes crude oil stock data, geo-situation progress, opec+ production signals and dollar fluctuations, these may affect subsequent oil prices
And that's why agencies don't judge on a single story, and the price of the crude oil market is not determined by a single variable, but by multiple variables
The picture presented by the public information is relatively clear: the price limit for domestic finished oil tankers is roughly adjusted upwards and is small, with a limited increase in owner expenditure, but the trend has emerged
Putting the rotation price back in perspective throughout the year, oil prices continue to fluctuate, driven by geo-factors in the short term, depending on changes in international supply and demand in the medium term and the rebalancing of global energy markets in the long term
For many, the oil price rise is not a big news event, but an immediate reminder that the cost of refuelling is changing and that the link between transport, consumption and energy persists
At the 2400 hours of thursday, the answer was in sight, and the market was waiting for the official announcement of the national development reform commission
As soon as the announcement is made, the oil price adjustment will land, the increase, the time of execution, the retail price will be clear, and the market will then look to the next price adjustment window
What is really worth noting is the logic of crude oil behind every price change and how it is transmitted to every car's tank. Lee
