In 2026, the omeletine market was like a roller coaster, with prices soaring from the beginning of the year to the historical height of 52,000 yuan/tonne at the end of march, followed by a phased reversal of the effects of multiple factors. Entering the market in may is once again entering a critical game period: the recovery of offshore production capacity is long overdue, the domestic overhaul season has intensified the supply gap, the cost of raw materials has increased support and downstream farming profits have improved demand acceptance. Will there be a new rebound in the price of lysine after a high-level microdown plate, influenced by a combination of factors
The fall in the price of omeletine in april-may has narrowed, and key support points are on the rise
The market for omeletine in one quarter was like a “crawling cart”, and prices soared from the lower position at the beginning of the year to a historic high of $52/kg. High market prices for omegosine in april-may were back behind schedule, with prices falling significantly in april and prices falling slightly in may. As shown in figure 1, according to data from the monitoring data of drebite (301299), there was a cumulative decline of 19. 61 per cent in the prices of the domestic market for solid proteins from 12 april to 12 may. This fall in prices was largely influenced by multiple short-term factors: first, the situation in the middle east was eased, the market sentiment that had accumulated as a result of panic shopping was released in the preceding period, and traders, out of a sense of safety, stepped up their deliveries, resulting in short-term increases in the supply of spot markets. Second, the current stock levels have picked up after the downstream feed facility centralized in march-april, and the procurement pace has slowed, with the overall market becoming less dynamic, mainly with fresh replenishments. In addition, a number of small and medium-sized traders and feed enterprises have been subject to financial pressures and short-term profitability considerations, and low-priced deliveries have occasionally occurred, further lowering the real market focus. At present, businesses have just had to purchase, the market for sterromylic acid has been heavily demand-supplyed, and prices have reached critical support points。
Late may to june: multiple gains built up and rebounded
(i) supply end: double contractions within and outside and continued widening supply gaps
The recovery of offshore capacity is far from complete: 340,000 tons of singapore/year-old omeletine devices have not yet had a clear recovery schedule since force majeure was declared in march, and the shutdown is expected to continue until the end of june. The chemical japanese plant, a resident, is also in a state of force majeure and the supply gap in overseas markets has widened further. European prices are currently higher than 40,000-48,000 yuan per ton, and international prices are high and strongly support the domestic market。
The expected decline in production is due to the onset of the domestic overhaul season, with the planned five-week cut-off in june-july 2001 for the solid and liquid e. L. A. Units at shandong base, which is expected to reduce production by about 3. 5 million tons. In addition, part of the country's enterprises are affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the start-up rate or decline, and domestic production of omeletine will decline in stages and the supply side will be significantly reduced。
Export demand is strong and domestic supply is diverted: recent international market prices for omeletine are higher than domestic prices, and some traders are actively buying and selling domestic goods abroad, and exports continue to increase. Meanwhile, supply tensions in the domestic market have been further exacerbated by the issuance of stoppages by front-runners such as andisou (600299), new and cheng (002001), which will continue to tighten at low prices。
(ii) cost end: increase in the price of raw materials and increased support
As of 12 may, the price of natural gas (885430), acrylic, sulfur and methanol, the main raw materials for the production of omelet acid, increased most times, with slight decreases. The average price of natural gas (885430), acrylene and sulfur increased by approximately 15. 85 per cent, 7. 22 per cent and 12. 28 per cent respectively in may, and methanol decreased slightly by 1. 35 per cent in may, influenced by fluctuations in international crude oil prices, tight domestic supply and reduced imports. The rise in the cost of raw materials has led to a significant increase in the cost pressure on domestic omeletine production enterprises, providing strong cost support for market prices and a strong willingness to do so。
(iii) demand-side: rigid demand support, expected increase in the replenishment wen
Lower downstream stocks and urgent needs for refuelling: the significant increase in the price of omeletine in the preceding period has led to prudent procurement by feed enterprises and the maintenance of stocks at low levels. With the onset of the growing season, downstream enterprises will gradually move into a phased replenishment cycle (883436) and the demand for proteins will increase significantly。
Farming earnings improved and demand acceptance increased: in april-may, there was a long-term profit-making situation for meat and poultry farming, a gain in egg and chicken farming (a cumulative increase of 1. 18 yuan per pound) and an increase in farmer motivation. Improved farming efficiency has resulted in a marked increase in the acceptance of high-priced omegosine by downstream enterprises, further accentuating demand rigidity。
Taken together, the market for proteins is expected to show a gradual upward trend from late may to june, with price priorities expected to break upwards. In the short term, downstream firms still have some resistance to the current high price of lysine, and the procurement tempo has been slow. However, domestic supply constraints are gradually emerging, with enterprises showing a strong willingness to sell and export demand diverting part of the supply. Current prices have stabilized at key support levels, and the turnover has tended to be magnified, and domestic prices for solid proteins are expected to converge or move upwards in late may。
Entry into june will result in a marked decline in domestic production of omegosine and a further widening of the supply gap as new and retrofitting devices, such as seng(0011), continue to stop. At the same time, with the onset of a strong downstream farming season, the demand for refuelling will be concentrated and the tension between supply and demand in the market will become more pronounced. Supported by higher cost of superseding raw materials and high prices on the international market, the price of proteins is expected to rebound significantly in june, the market for solid proteins is either in the mainstream or continues to rise, prices for some high-end sources are not excluded or are expected to rise again, and they are expected to break the pre-precedent high, opening new upspaces and increasing the level of air in the protein industry。
(focusing on the situation in the middle east, profits from downstream farming, restructuring of the enterprise overhaul programme, changes in the supply of imported and exported goods)
