Evaluation: the disk is at 4152, and the tail is clear
On 25 may 2026, the a stock market handed over a strong response, with the three indices rising on a full line, with 4150 points in whole at a successful point, and eventually reporting 4152. 57 points, an increase of 0. 96 per cent, with an all-day fluctuation of 4119. 79-4153. 88 points, with an amplitude of less than 1 per cent. The sharpest evidence is a 1. 66 per cent to 15,856. 61 points in the harvest, a 2. 10 per cent increase in the entrepreneurship table, a 4021. 16 point increase, and an explosive increase of 5. 88 per cent in the 50-degree index, a record high and a full-scale lead on the technological growth track。
(i) quantities explode and market sentiment is fully activated
There are no more bright spots at the heart of today than a substantial amount of trade. The total market is worth $3. 23 trillion, a sharp increase of $30. 23 billion over the previous trading day, with more than 3 trillion times a day, and an unprecedented willingness to enter the market. It is worth noting that today the hong kong stock market is closed, north-to-north funds are suspended, the market is entirely dominated by domestic capital, and public, private, money-raising, and family-scrambling forces have developed. The upward trend in volume growth is sufficient proof of the high level of recognition of current markets by domestic finance and a complete reversal of the cautious attitude of previous financial expectations。
(ii) indices are divided into individual shares and structural patterns are extremely dynamic
Despite the full rise in the index, the market is characterized by the typical structural features of ** “high index, weak stock”**. The data show that there was only 2181 stock increases across the market, 3,218 stock declines, 116 stock flats and more than 60 per cent stock falls, resulting in significant disparities. Behind this division is the result of the high concentration of funding on the core main line — the flow of market liquidity on the technology track, the outflow of funds on the non-main block, and the growing pattern of the strong and the weak, which confirms once again that the current state of affairs is by no means universal, with precise selection of shares and focus on the main line being the key to success。
(iii) the tailings: clear financing and very significant signals
The movement of the tailings today (1430 - 15:00) directly exposes the true intentions of the main fund, and the signals are very clear:
1. Refusal to fall back, with a strong crossboard: for half an hour on the tailboard, the above-documented index has been shaking around 4150 points with no sign of falling back, and even a small jump in the disc has been quickly taken over by funds and 4150 points have been strongly supported。
2. Financing, technology and so on: the central technology block, which concentrates on tailings, such as flow semiconductors and communications equipment, increases by more than 1 per cent the 50 index tailings, with many of the dragon tailings closing and closing, and with no covert action to raise the core main line。
3. Stable indentation and depletion: a slight contraction in the exchange of tailings suggests that after a full-time change of hands, market outages have been largely exhausted, stockholdings have been stable, and many have strong control over market initiatives。
The strength of the tailings is no accident, but rather the strength of the main fund in view of the back-market situation, as well as the strength of the 4150-point support, and the tone of tomorrow's show will probably continue to be today's strength and shock。
Ii. Depth resolution of plate hotspots: technological mainline monopolistic, low-level supplementation
The market hotspots today are highly focused, with the semiconductor industrial chain booming and becoming the absolute core; the cycle plate is downgraded to form support for multi-power; new energy, oil and gas, etc., are adjusted, the financial slab effect is evident and the wheel logic of the plate is clear。
(i) semiconductor industrial chain: full-line explosion with a 50-cent record high
The semi-conductor plate is the absolute soul of today's market, with an overall increase of more than 4. 79 per cent, leading to a 50-degree increase of 5. 88 per cent, a record high. On the face of the news, china is issuing the semiconductor's law of twilight, superseding the increased global demand for ai servers, replacing the accelerated advance of national production, and resonating the trigger plate。
Full-scale flowering of subdivisions:
- storage chips: multi-part rises and drops in east core shares, zhongjiang technology, etc., and the price of ai-based storage chips has risen to the highest level of breakdown
- semiconductor equipment: the rise and halt of the leading shares in china rainbow, long electric, crystal, etc., with a sharp increase of over 18 per cent in china-chip international, a 17 per cent increase in china, shanghai and china-based technologies, and the continuation of the replacement logic of national production equipment
- pcb (printed circuit boards): multiple increases and stops in plentiful holdings and shares in electric power have benefited from the outbreak of demand for ai servers, communications equipment and the significant increase in pcb value, which has become the core part of ai hardware。
The outbreak of the semiconductor plate was not short-term speculation, but rather industrial trends + performance + policy support for a triple logical resonance, which is extremely sustainable and will continue to be the central market line。
(ii) cycle block: low-level replenishment, strong coal and utilities
The cyclical plates are bright today and have become an important support force for the index, with coal, utilities, building materials, etc. Showing a low-coupling pattern。
- coal plates: the core driving logic is the proximity of power peaks in the summer, the expected warming of coal demand, stable performance of superheavy coal companies, a clear advantage of low valuation and a low-level distribution of funds
- utilities, construction materials: benefiting from the expected steady growth policy, the rise in the low-level release of plates is the dual option of financial avoidance + replenishment, with fewer fluctuations and greater security
- precious metals: small increases in gold, silver plates, geopolitical uncertainties, inflationary expectations, and small inflows of venture capital into the market。
(iii) restructured blocks: financial outflows, new energy sources, weak hydrocarbons
In stark contrast to the strong plates, new energy, oil and gas, games, and the cro sectors are falling today, and financial flows are evident。
- gas and oil plates: before the fall, the koli shares and the oil from the main source fell by more than 9 per cent. On the news, mei agreed on the opening of the strait of hormuz. International oil prices fell, slowing down domestic oil and gas plates
- new energy sources (lithium, volts): constant adjustment, multifluoride drops and psychic shares fall by almost 13 per cent. The central reason for this is that the previous period was too large and the funds were closed, while market funds focused on the technology mains and the new energy tracks were marginalized
- cro, game: a small back-up, normal adjustment after the previous period 's increase, no information for profit, and there is still room for repair。
Iii. Technological precision analysis: multiple trends established and key points identified yeah
On the technical side, today's large-discretion discharges exceed 4150 points, and the multi-pronged trend is well established, with a resonance of averages, energy and indicators that support the continuation of the journey tomorrow。
(i) general system: multi-heading, support layer upwards
The average of 5 days (4120 points), 10 days (4100 points) and 20 days (4080 points) are all scattered upwards and are strongly supported by all short-term averages on the index station today. In the short term, 4150 points have been converted from pressure to strong support, and tomorrow, if you step back, it will be an excellent low-suction opportunity。
(ii) critical stress and support positions
- short-term support slots: first, 4150 points (concentrated today, robustly supported); second, 4130 points (5-day average, defensive); and maximum, 4,100 points (10-day average, multiple lifeline)
- short-term stress levels: 4170-4180 points for first pressure (high pre-shock point, short-term pallet concentration area); 4,200 points for second pressure (integer level, stress level); 42 points for maximum pressure (high-point pre-period, stress level)。
(iii) technical indicators: multiple signals are clear and not visible the elephant
- macd: dayline level macd gold fork continued, red column continued to expand and multi-capacitated
- kdj: the 3rd line is dispersed, although it is in overpurchase, without signs of turning down, and the pattern of strength remains unchanged
- exchange: today's emissions are broken, prices rise, and the amount supports the index, and no amount is the adjustment signal。
Overall, there are no top signals of technology, multiple trends continue, and tomorrow's rate of shock rises, challenging 4170-4180 points of pressure。
Iv. Tomorrow (26 may) situational prejudice: squalling, technology rising, three scenarios dismantling
In combination with the core signals of today's freefall breakthroughs, tailings recovery, home ownership, and the power of the technology main line, tomorrow's chassis probably perpetuates the upswing of the shock, and the technology plate continues to rise and divides the individual shares, with three probability scenarios as follows:
(i) core scenario (probability 70 per cent): flat and high, shock up, 4170 points steady
- flow patterns: large discs are opened on a small scale (0. 2-0. 5 per cent), when they are closed around 4150-4160 points of seismic digestion, and the main technology line (semiconductor, communication equipment) is boosted on a small scale by 4140-4150 points in the morning, boosting the index to 4170-4180 points of pressure; maintaining a strong shock after the afternoon, with a small increase in the tailings and a final recovery of the light (0. 5-1 per cent increase)。
- quantities can be expected: the turnover is maintained at a level of 2. 8 to 3. 2 trillion yuan, the volume is mild and amplified, and health levels are sufficient to support the movement。
- board opportunities: semiconductor (storage, equipment), communication equipment, pcb continued to rise; coal, utility lows were replenished; new energy, oil and gas minor repairs were made, and financial flows were returned to the lower mark。
(ii) optimistic scenario (probability 20 per cent): quantities breakthrough, strong offensive, impact 4,200 points
- characteristics of the movement: large discs are over 0. 8 per cent high, open in half-hours is over 1 trillion yuan and distributed throughout the day at 3. 5 trillion yuan; technology main lines are resonated with coupons, rising directly through 4180 points of pressure, with a strong impact on 4,200 points in whole; tails are steady at 4,200 points and the sun is closed (by more than 1. 5 per cent)。
- trigger conditions: semiconductor plates continue to erupt, with a grouping of the head; coupons are being pushed up in different ways to activate market sentiment; and internal capital continues to enter the field, with further liquidity。
(iii) precautionary scenario (probability 10%): small backsliding, convulsion, holding 4130 points
- characteristics of the movement: small flats (0. 2-0. 3 per cent) of large discs, affected by the return of the benefits of the technology plate, retrogressed 4130-4140 points in the early stages; the subsequent succession of funds, an index shock rises, convulsions around 4130-4160 points all day, receiving crosses or small cavities without systemic risk。
- trigger conditions: semiconductor plate heights, with the booming of the head; turnover shrinks to less than 2. 5 trillion yuan, with a rebound in financial vigils; and external markets are experiencing a sudden loss of revenue, affecting internal resources。
(iv) core focus for tomorrow
1. Quantified energy: the ability to sustain more than $2. 8 trillion, with the quantification going up and the indent shaking
2. Science and technology main lines: semiconductor, continuity of communications equipment, and plate-linking of the head
3. Supporting position: whether 4150 points can be secured, and whether funding is available to backstop 4130 points
4. Wheeling of plates: whether cycle plates can be replenished and whether new energy sources can be repaired。
Operational policy: focus main line, low-suction high-paint, tight position
The current market is in a multi-headed + structural state of affairs, and it is operationally important to move away from general thinking and focus on the core lines while controlling the position and responding flexibly to shocks。
(i) warehouse management: 5-7%, flexible adjustment
- core warehouse position (50): semiconductor layout, communications equipment, technical lead lines such as pcb, firmly held and not easily exchanged
- mobile warehouse positions (2 in 20): configuration of low-level cycle plates such as coal, utilities, high-suction, short-line differentials
- cash position (30 per cent): set aside funds, low-suction when stepping back on the support level, low-suspension when rushing up the pressure level, not blindly full of space。
(ii) boarding: technology-based, cycle-backed, avoiding vulnerability
- focused layout (mainline): semiconductor (storage chips, equipment), communications equipment, pcb, calculator chips, giving priority to pre-employed, well-established pilot targets and circumventing the high-level pure subject matter unit
- auxiliary layout (supplementation): coal, utilities, construction materials, low-valued, low-placed targets, low-cost absorption
- resolute circumvention (vulnerability): high-grade new energy sources (lithium, voltage), oil and gas, pure subject matter, with no bottom-up, no disking, pending full adjustment before consideration。
(iii) operating rhythm: low-suction, low-sniffing, no panic
- low-suction opportunities: the main line of low-suction technology will be retraced tomorrow at 4140-4150 points; the mark will be retraced at 4130 points
- high-pumping opportunities: reducing the high-store technology unit and targeting profits when indexing 4170-4180 points of pressure
- inhibited operations: no high-level training, no blind changes, no panic cutting, no systemic risks in the current situation, and shock is an opportunity rather than a risk。
Summary: multiple trends are clear, technology leads the way, and mastering the lead is key
Today’s large-disk deployments exceed 4150 points, the tailings are powerful, the main funding is undisguised, the internal capital-led, technology-driven, and the volume is constantly magnified, the market trends are well established, and tomorrow’s performance is likely to continue to shock, challenging 4170-4180 points of pressure。
The core logic of the current state of affairs is that the core logic of technology leads + relaxed internal capital mobility + structural fragmentation, without too much operational concern about short-term shocks, focusing on core technology tracks such as semiconductors, communications equipment, and pcb, taking into account low-cycle upscaling opportunities, and controlling warehouse slots and low-suctions, can capture the core benefits of this round's upswing。
Risk tips: there is always uncertainty in the market, and the above analysis is based on current market signals for reference purposes only and does not constitute an investment proposal. There's a risk in investing
