The chinese building collapsed in 2016 and revealed the factors behind the collapse of house prices! The collapse of the chinese building will come in 2016, when the price of the building will fall, with 20 dramatic consequences! Many people expect chinese house prices to fall soon, and economists have recently predicted an 80% decline in urban house prices in 2016! The sword, which is the main representative of the “singing-down” group, has been passive towards the real estate market, claiming that the bubble in the chinese building is bound to collapse and is necessarily latino plus japanese. The chinese building city performed like a roller coaster in 2015. The reduction in central bank interest rates at the beginning of 2015 was considered to be a rescue, but the results were not satisfactory. With the collapse of the stock market, the fourth reduction in the central bank's interest rate and the entry of a $2 trillion pension, a series of policies and events that appear to be beneficial to the market have been taking place, but with limited impact. So how's china house going to be in 2016
At the end of august, the central bank dropped interest rates once again and, as a result, the current round has accumulated five interest rate reductions four times. For the building market, there is a general appreciation of the real estate market following this reduction in interest rates. Most of the industry believes that there will soon be a wave of entry under policy incentives such as the central bank rate reduction. In the short term, the market will have to rebound in the coming months, particularly in the second half of the year, when the turnover will be short-lived, and even this year the first-line and some of the second-line cities will again become the “big year”。
In future market prices, it is expected that the prices of first-line cities and some of the second-line cities are likely to grow stronger in “gold, silver and silver,” especially in the case of first-line cities and those with a market base (in cities with a stock de-classification cycle of less than 15 months, such as those of fertilizer, nanjing, suzhou, nanchang, etc.)。
The authors do not deny the above-mentioned trends in the next building, but we cannot simply focus on the current city of optimism. What about the market after "gold and gin"? What about the real estate market after 2016? This is what the city should be concerned about this year after the ‘gold’。
According to zhang daa, director general of the department of consulting and research, china’s real estate market environment is no longer the same. Today, the basic supply and demand base of the market is largely balanced. In the short term, the market still faces the problem of losing stock. Even the “suspense” policy, such as the cancellation of limited purchases and the reduction of interest rates, will not change the basic reality of “go to stock”. After the double drop at the end of august this year, while market prices will show up at the “golden 90s”, which will lead to a boom in at least a part of the city, the boom is the result of the “saving city” policy, which continues to stimulate demand in the overtows, and the crisis in the submerging city. The crisis is likely to break out in early 2016, when the city will enter a new cycle of depression. Specifically, there are six main reasons:
One reason is that the basics of supply and demand in the city are largely balanced and that this year's “long years” of recovery are unsustainable
The results of the joint consultation and research department show that the average number of household housing units in urban areas in china reached 1. 0 in around 2010 and that, according to international standards, the average number of household housing units in urban areas reached 1. 0, which means that the supply of and demand for real estate in china has been largely balanced, that the market has begun to enter the second half of the world, that the rate of increase in the housing stock will decline in the future and that the real estate market will gradually enter the stock age. This will characterize future real estate market demand, reflecting a more stable rate of growth and more differentiated demand。
In the light of the market trends, the market has now entered the second half of the world, with the basics of supply and demand largely balanced and market demand largely met, and this year's “long years” of improved recovery due to multiple rounds of “suspense” policies
Reason two: after the “dubling” of the central bank, there will be massive overdrafts of the city's needs, and after the second half of the year of madness, the city will fall into a depression
Since the new deal of 330 this year, the rebound in exchange prices in urban housing markets in large and medium cities has been dominated by the release of past backlogs of demand, as well as by overdrafts of market demand as a result of demand concentration. If housing companies assume on this basis that the future building market will remain in such a position, it is a miscalculation of the market that is likely to be passive at a time when the market changes in the future。
According to zhang, director-general zhang zhang, the next round of phased adjustments to the market will come when the current round of market demand is released in the fourth quarter, in the light of the trend in the market after the current round’s “dubling.” according to the author, after the central bank's “dubble fall,” the market price of the current round rose more than until the end of the fourth quarter of this year, that is to say, after the central bank's “dubble fall,” the demand for the building would be overstretched and the market would fall into a great depression in the second half of the year, with the prospect of a new round of real estate market adjustments starting in early 2016 coming. By that time, if the enterprise does not “prevent” in the second half of this year, it is likely that the housing company will be caught up in a passive push and that the financial situation of the enterprise will be problematic。
Thus, in the case of central banks, the interest-rate reduction policy is a “window period” in which housing companies should, first and foremost, actively adjust the pace of the drive, moving the run-off of the five interest-rate cuts to the “window period” of the inventory, increasing the ratio of “golden and silver ten” and even sales performance for months after the end of the year, and preventing the market environment from changing at the end of the fourth quarter and even early 2016, leading to a passive push by the firm。
Reason iii: interest rate increases are expected to be strong, global asset allocation is directed towards dollar assets or real estate, and china's removal of restrictions is more symbolic than meaningful for the domestic market
The interest rate increase is expected to be strong, with the acquisition of united states dollar assets or an increase in united states dollar assets becoming their preferred option in terms of the distribution of assets by global investors or wealth classes, and the united states real estate market becoming more of an investment value. In this market context, china has liberalized restrictions on home purchases by foreigners. In the view of the author, the liberalization of restrictions on the purchase of housing by foreigners in the country will not have a significant impact on the domestic market, and the removal of the restrictions by china will have greater symbolic significance for the domestic market. The reason is simple: whether global investors or wealth classes will choose to invest in higher-value united states properties relative to the value of investment in the us and china. Even if the chinese market is chosen to invest, it will focus only on the medium- and high-end properties in the first and very few second-line cities, making it difficult to change the large trends in the market。
Reason four: "the landlord" is an expression of the city's madness, which is bound to lead to a period of readjustment, and the city's cycle of depression
Since the beginning of this year, there has been a proliferation of “glorys” in the cities of the north, deep-seated cities, chai fat, nanjing and wuhan. According to the writer, since this year, the phenomenon of high land market premiums, “landlords,” has indeed emerged in the context of a market where commodity residential markets are traded back. If this year’s market exchanges have just rebounded, the developer will be taking land in the land market madly, and if such “landlord” land becomes normal, then the market may soon be moving in another direction: the period of market adjustment after madness。
Whatever the form of “high premium” or “landlord” in the land market, the authors believe that the “high premium” or “landlord” in the land market is not a good thing in a context where the real estate market is still recovering. The “high premium” and “landlord” of the land market are demons, and if the current land market is gestationing the recovery of the land market in 2009-2010 and 2013, there is a high risk that the market will be biased, which may lead to a re-restriction of market regulation from the current “suspense” period。
The same is true of historical experience, with the cities, including the land market, plunged into a great depression in 2011 and 2014, following the madness of the land market “governors” in 2009-2010 and 2013. This year's land market performance suggests that if the land market's “landlord” phenomenon persists in the second half of the year, it will also mean that the city will fall into a period of great depression in 2016。
Reason five: the more frequent the city's “sustain” policy, the more serious it is today, the more problems it will face and the more market risks it will hide in the future
Since the second half of last year, despite the cancellation of most of the city's restrictions on purchases, the easing of the zong's lending restrictions, the introduction of the 330 new deal, the issuance of measures to save the city by local governments, the five cumulative reductions in the central bank's interest rates, and the benefits of the various policy levels associated with the building market, however, the effect of these policies is short-term, and does not mean that the basics of the future buildings will continue to rise and that the problems of the future will become fewer and fewer. According to the author, the more frequent the city's “sustain” policy, the greater the current situation in the city, the more problems the city will face and the more market risks it will hide in the future。
Reason six: for most large and medium-sized cities, there is still considerable pressure to remove stocks, and no substantial change in the basics of the building, which is the basic “national situation” of the building, which also determines that the future market will still be subject to a phased adjustment
In fact, in the short term, the current market is still in a period of adjustment and the market fundamentals have not changed significantly, and “de-stocking” is still the dominant market melody, a tone that will not be significantly altered by the rebound of first-line cities and part of the second-line cities; for housing enterprises, too, there is still considerable pressure on de-stocking, and even some housing companies, such as zhejiang guangcheng, have opted out of the real estate market; and in the medium-to-long term, the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals will also lead to continued under-demanding of the building during the 2015-2016 period, and sooner or later there will be pressure to remove stocks。
In the event of the collapse of the building and the collapse of the house price, the following 20 dramatic consequences are expected。
1. A large number of developers who have been pre-invested are in mourning. What do you say
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
2. The divorce rate has risen significantly, and before the divorce registry, there has been a build-up, a fear that many people would not be able to divorce because they were homeless because the house had been awarded to the other and the price of the house had dropped significantly
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
3. Countless lovers entered the house of marriage and finally could afford a house to build their love nest. Wedding appointments at major hotels and restaurants are full and group weddings become popular..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
4: graduates of the university are very happy to hear this, and they don't have to worry about having a place to live, and they can have a place for themselves with a small amount of money from their parents
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
Five, many friends in the field have heard that city houses in the 2nd and 3rd line have fallen in price, have been accompanied by money to kill and buy houses, and long-distance cars have become overcrowded..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
6. Many of their fellow farmers were anxious to get a house in 2nd and 3rd-line cities, and they were too slow to take long-distance cars, so that the villagers in the villages along the way were collectively building railways, at a time when their common hero was — zang tianwu
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
7. All parts of the country know that urban housing prices have fallen, that they have sprung into three-line cities, that the heat of buying houses continues to rise, and that road traffic is under great strain ..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
8. All kinds of real estate projects are already in front of people, coming from all sides of the great lakes sea, crowding together for the common goal of buying a house, disordering the scene and crowding people down..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
In order to be able to squeeze into the storehouses, the people who buy houses cross the sea, the deities — bodies, wisdom and tenacity — are at this point the key to the struggle
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
10. Girls with small bodies and the elderly and the sick and the sick are clearly unable to compete with strong men, who can only be squeezed helplessly into the crowd outside the bars of the small town
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
11: not only our fellow countrymen, but also foreign friends who have heard of the sharp drop in the price of the house, have come from all over the world, have been thrilled by their statements, and have struggled to find some convenient way to buy the house for them by the landlord
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
12. Owing to the breakdown of order at the house purchase site, even police intervention is difficult to control, and the seller has to resort to aerial saplings; it is clear that those who usually play amateur basketball play have a place in this kind of competition for blue cricket
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
13. The housing and credit institutions that used to be in the city were suddenly turned into a place. The staff members were face-to-face and the hall was clear and clear. That's 800 centimetres
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
When the prices fall, the market will have 20 dramatic consequences
Some decided to sell some of their items in order to pool funds for house purchases. The young man was ready to sell a laptop, even if only $8,000 would be enough to buy an additional toilet house。
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
At the same time, a large number of savers were concentrating on banks, credit unions, and buying houses at the same time. Unfortunately, the face of a staff member who counted money was generally ugly and the financial system was under considerable pressure
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
There are too many people who buy houses, and in one day's time, “the house has been sold out” signs were hung. This is no doubt a serious blow to those who have not bought a house..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
A 17-year-old girl can't be ashamed of buying a house, she raises cards in the streets and tells herself to "buy a house," but there's no room left for the landlord at this time! I don't think she's going to have any real effect on it
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
18, more people chose never to give up, even by camping on the site, and their resolve was that love was not expensive, the house was cheaper, one was not bought, and two or three were not bought ..
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
The domestic media also contributed to the purchase of house heat, and a related advertisement was quickly completed and started to be broadcast in turn, in the following words: a few square metres after the festival
Bull's knife claims that the chinese building collapsed in 2016 and that the price of the house fell by 20 dramatic consequences
20, the hot wave of house-buying spread all over the world, and all the major foreign news agencies sent journalists to the interview, and the woman photographer looked at everything, staring at a frightened eye, and even forgot to press the camera door..
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