The report gives a buy-in rating of $16. 80 for changan and $11. 94 for the current share price, with an expected increase of 40. 7 per cent。
Changan (000625)
Long ann's overall sales ring is faster than recovery. The total volume of changan vehicles sold in march was 241. 5 million, an increase of 3. 8 per cent over the same period and 28. 3 per cent over the same period; the total volume sold in january-march was 60780,000, a decrease of 6. 7 per cent over the same period. According to a preliminary estimate of the federation, domestic wholesale sales for narrow passenger vehicles increased by about 7 per cent in march, and the overall volume for long-term an was slightly below the industry average。
Long-term autonomous sales up the ring and new energy sales maintained a high rate of growth. Long-ann autonomous brands sold 15. 37 million units in march, an increase of 14. 1 per cent over the same period, and around 30. 7 per cent; cumulatively, 39. 6 million units sold in january-march, an increase of 9. 0 per cent over the same period; and long-ann autonomous brands won the industry average in march. In march, 359,000 new energy units were sold on the changan autonomous brand, representing an increase of 118. 6 per cent over the same period and 74. 4 per cent over the same period; in january-march, 84. 5 million new units were sold on a cumulative basis, representing an increase of 105. 4 per cent over the same period. Delivery of sl03 in deep blue in march was 8568, an increase of 108. 8 per cent in the ring; as at 5 april, avita had cumulatively delivered over 6,000. With regard to the new vehicle, it was officially on the market in march and in april with the official listing of the eurosan z62. 0t vehicle, cs75 plus idd, which is expected to be on the market in april, to further refine the changan autonomous product matrix; and on 24 march, avita 11, which launched a single-wire version, with an extended mileage of 700 km, and cltc's comprehensive extension to 705 km. It is expected that the subdivision market will be further expanded, with rmb 31. 99/349. 9 million to be priced for the aveta 11 long/ultra-long cycle, and that the deep blue s7 of the chang an-dan blue car will be displayed in shanghai, and that the new car will be available in the first half of this year, using the design of ar-hud, large-sized sunflower middle screens, ring-to-air lamps, floating “sound island”, hidden electric vents, etc., reflecting the core idea of living in harmony with science and technology. As the deep blue 2 strategic vehicle model, it is expected that deep blue 7 will lead to higher sales of deep blue brands, contributing to a dynamic and autonomous new energy transformation。
The volume of joint brand sales is equal to the pressure. Long-arnford sold 15,500 vehicles in march, a decrease of 34. 2 per cent and an 8. 1 per cent increase in the ring; cumulatively, 44. 8 million in january-march, a decrease of 25. 7 per cent. From march to march, the number of long-term ammars sold was 0. 6 million, representing a decrease of 46. 2 per cent and an increase of 55. 7 per cent in the ring, while from january to march, the cumulative volume was 13. 9 million, a decrease of 66. 1 per cent. With regard to the new vehicle, long-arnford new sharp line l is expected to be on the market on 18 april, divided into fuel and hybrids, and long-amada cx-50, which officially opened on 16 march, is expected to be ready for sale in shanghai, where the new model is expected to restore heating power to chang-am's brand sales。
Profit projections and investment recommendations
For 2022-2024, net profits to the mother are projected at $83. 80, 87. 17, and $975 billion, approximately 20 times the average of the company's 22-year pe, giving the company a 22-year pe 20-fold valuation at a target price of $16. 80, maintaining the buy-in rating。
Risk tip
Long-arnford sells lower than expected, long-arnmar sells lower than expected and long-ann autonomous brands sell lower than expected。
Based on the research data released over the last three years, the securities star data centre calculated that the group of east wu sylvester fellows studied the unit in depth, with an average forecast accuracy of 72. 07 per cent for the last three years, with a projected net profit of 8. 023 billion in 2022 and a projected pa 14. 62 based on current prices。
The latest profit projections are broken down as follows:
A total of 22 agencies have given ratings in the unit in the last 90 days, with 17 ratings and an increase of 5 ratings; the average agency price has been 17. 36 over the past 90 days. According to financial data for the last five years, the securities star valuation analysis tool shows that the moats that are competitive within the changan (000625) industry are good, less profitable and less profitable. Financial indicators of relative financial health include: accounts receivable/profit margin. The unit's good corporate indicator 3 star, good price indicator 2. 5 star, consolidated indicator 2. 5 star. (indicator range: 0 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars)
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