Recently, the chemical industry has been talking about the price of bromine, which has soared from 30,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 80,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 167%! As a core material for organic synthesis, flame retardants, and pharmaceutical intermediates, price volatility of bromine is reshaping the entire industrial chain. Today we're going to break down the triple pushers behind this bromine storm
The sharp slope of supply and demand scales
One, the supply end, the cliff drop
The global volume of bromines decreased sharply by 28 per cent over the same period, the escondida mine in chile was shut down for more than 200 days as a result of environmental rehabilitation* and the kizilcukur mine in turkey resulted in the cutting of capacity. Only 300,000 tons of the country's qinghai salt lake are stable。
2 ️⃣ demand-side "well blowout growth"
The demand for new energy cell diaphragm materials increased by 300 per cent (data source: china bromine industry association), brominated salt for photovoltaic glass increased by 45 per cent, and the demand for high-purity bromines at the electronic level increased by a compound of 23 per cent annually. But more importantly:
The eu reach regulation came into force in may and the flame retardant market imposed the phase-out of pbb products
Hydrogen fuel cell catalyst demand surged fivefold in aerospace
Synthetic breakthrough of the new antibiotics cephalospolin c
3. Geopolitical shocks
The red sea shipping crisis had led to a 40 per cent increase in the import cost of bromine in the middle east region, and the united states anti-dumping duties on pv components had been transferred to upstream feedstock markets. More fatally, the government of india abruptly eliminated the tax rebate on the export of bromine, cutting off critical routes in south asia。
The dual effect of the policy dividend
1 ️⃣ butterfly effect of the domestic double carbon strategy
Environmental restrictions in qinghai and inner mongolia resulted in a 60 per cent reduction in domestic capacity utilization. But good policies are on the way:
Ndrc to include bromine salts in the strategic reserve catalogue (o. D. 8. 20)
Quota management for synthetic bromine exports initiated
New salt lake tibromine project integrated into the new industrialization facility
2. The dark war of international trade rules
In the context of the wto dispute settlement mechanism, the eu imposed a 25 per cent surcharge on brominated compounds through the carbon border regulation mechanism (cbam). However, china is in the process of establishing the south-east asia bromine combination centre through the rcep agreement, with the costs of mining bromine in viet nam and indonesia being 40 per cent lower than in chile。
3 ️⃣ reduction of technical barriers
Tehit israel monopolized 70 per cent of the high-end bromine market, and its patented br2 was 99. 99 per cent pure. Domestic enterprises have broken through through membrane separation technology, increasing purity from 98 per cent to 99. 5 per cent, but equipment costs are three times higher than international standards。
The chain reaction of the industrial chain
1 fire retardant market earthquake
The price of plastic-grade flame retardants (decabde) increased fourfold, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost of household electricity and automobile interiors
Demand for non-halogenated flame retardants increased by 300 per cent, but the domestic capacity gap reached 800,000 tons
Dependency on imports of micro-pore-retardant materials for electronic equipment increased from 65 per cent to 82 per cent
2 medical intermediate delivery crisis
The price of raw materials for bromine antibiotics (e. G. Cpps) doubled and the budget for hospital procurement was exceeded by 40 per cent
Less than 15% national production of critical intermediates (bromine-655) for oncology target
The supply cycle of bromophenylbutamol in cardiovascular drugs was extended from 15 to 90 days
3. Game in the new energy sector
The cost of the lithium ion cell diaphragm (peo-br) increased from 5% to 12%
The life of the hydrogen fuel cell proton exchange film (pem) was reduced by 30% by brominated corrosion
0. 5% bromine ion transport problem in photovoltaic glass with argonated acid glass (bssg)
Iv. Transports and investment opportunities
1 energy upgrade route figure
Proposed investment in the 30,000-to-tonne saline lake-tibromine project (requirement of membrane separation technology)
Development of a "waste salt + solar" green bromine process (40% reduction in energy consumption)
Layout of hydrobromo acid reclamation units (95% recovery rate)
2. Alternatives to demand
25% increase in replacement costs for fluorine flame retardants (e. G. Pfos)
Silicon flame retardants (e. G., aromatic gels) have increased their prices threefold
Bio-based flame retardants (shell polyglucose derivatives) produced at volume costs exceeding $100,000 per ton
3. Georisk hedge strategy
Development of a middle east-south-east asia-south america bromine procurement triangle
Investing in australia/mexico new mineral deposits
Avoidance of export controls through offshore trade
The bromine price storm was essentially a pain in the chemical* industry’s escalation. It is recommended that enterprises establish "three-tier" coping mechanisms: 30 per cent of the funds are spent on technology reserves, 30 per cent are allocated to overseas production capacity and 30 per cent expand high-value-added products. Over the next three years, businesses with bromine-purification technologies, green processes, and new energy materials will receive excess returns。
Chemical industry analysis bromine price fluctuations supply chain management industrial chain upgrading new energy materials chemical investment chemical workers yes. Look
Bromine prices have skyrocketed: how does supply and demand imbalances + policy regulation + international developments affect the chemical industry chain
Bromine prices have skyrocketed: how does supply and demand imbalances + policy regulation + international developments affect the chemical industry chain
