According to the economic and commercial branch of the embassy of the people's republic of china in bosnia and herzegovina, the chamber of commerce for foreign trade in bosnia and herzegovina has recently stated that the economy of bosnia and herzegovina is highly sensitive to the volatility of international oil prices due to its exclusive dependence on oil imports, inefficiency and limited state intervention, which has had a significant negative impact on its competitiveness, inflation and external trade balance。
The chamber of commerce analysed the increase in the price of oil and its derivatives not only as a short-term cost shock, but also as a greater exposure to the structural weaknesses of the bosnia and herzegovina economy, threatening its long-term sustainability and development potential. The impact of rising oil prices is indirectly transmitted to almost all sectors through logistics, raw materials and inflationary channels, with effects spreading throughout the economy。
At present, the sector is most directly affected, with strong indirect effects on transport and overall manufacturing, and directly reflected in the decline in exports and declining competitiveness. Globally, the metals and transport sectors are particularly sensitive to the rise in oil prices. For bosnia and herzegovina, export products are dominated by low value added, cost absorption space is limited, and rising production and transport costs lead to lower price competitiveness of their products. In the long run, this may lead to a range of problems such as loss of existing market shares, insufficient export power, declining profitability and declining investment。
In addition, rising oil prices have further exacerbated domestic inflationary pressures, weakened the purchasing power of the population and slowed economic activity. If the high oil prices persist for a long time, this could lead to a slowdown in economic growth and a reduction in industrial production and employment, further weakening the competitiveness of the bosnia and herzegovina economy, while increasing inflation and investment risks。
In order to mitigate these negative impacts, the chamber of commerce for foreign trade of bih proposes a strategy of combining short-term economic support measures with long-term structural reforms, focusing on increasing efficiency, promoting market diversification and increasing the value added of production。
