Here's to cheer you all! The price of pigs has moved from a slow increase in the “hot-cooked frog” style of the last two days to a massive “floating red” nationwide, which began in 27 years with an “emerging” rise of nearly 0. 5-1 pound in several areas. Large-scale farming enterprises were among the first to raise prices, and the prices of zhengbong and taipei farmers and pigs in the north-east and north-east increased significantly by 1. 5 to 2 yuan/kg. The slaughtering business has become more difficult to collect because of the weather, farm pressure, etc., and the recent increase in the price of pigs has been marked by an increase of $1 per pound. The average price of raw pigs has risen to 15. 5 yuan per pound, according to the data on travel treasures, and will soon exceed 16. The sudden surge has made a lot of people who eat melons stupid. It was thought that, with the concentration coming at the end of the month, the price of pigs would again be subject to a large downward adjustment. Where did you get the pig price from。
Then the question arises: what caused the sudden surge in the price of pigs in this round
Increased demand for consumption and tighter supply: the weather has gradually turned cold and has already entered the consumption season of gravy in the south and salami in the north, where the amount of pork is clearly moving fast. Moreover, the price of pork has been declining for 10 weeks, boosting the consumer's desire to buy, so that the price of pork can continue to rise, supported by consumption. There is a shortage of large pigs and pigs, and the price differentials between fats and pigtails are evident, and the overall market supply remains strained in stages。
2. Imports of frozen meat have occurred: since november, there have been frequent cases of imported thawing to detect positives, and, according to incomplete statistics, more than 30 new cronovirus nucleic acids have been detected in the country, involving frozen shrimp, frozen beef, frozen pork, etc. Following positive detection of meat imports, exports of pork products to china were voluntarily suspended. Furthermore, the amount of pork imported in october decreased. Yesterday, the general customs administration announced that 330,000 tons of pork had been imported in october, 50,000 tons fewer than the 380,000 tons recorded in september, and 330,000 tons had reached a new low of imports this year。
3. The embargo on the production of live pigs in the six provinces of central and south china: the ban on the export of pigs has contributed to the rapid increase in the price of pigs in areas where they are in short supply, given the fact that, by winter, there is a pattern of high consumption of traditional pork and the practice of pickled pork, which also means that the production of pigs is not traded across the province, and that the sudden ban on trans-provincial shipments in the face of the already tight supply of pigs on the market creates room for local farmers to raise prices。
4 upon entering november, feed companies in various locations began to increase their feed prices more frequently, and more than 20 enterprises have now increased their feed prices by $50-125 per ton, which directly leads to soaring costs for pig farmers. While higher prices for feed cannot directly constitute an increase in pig prices, rising farm costs will inevitably give rise to a strong willingness on the part of farmers, leading to higher pig prices. @returning @winng @bhangming wrote about some of the concerns about the effect of higher feed prices on pig prices。
5 scale farms, loosers, joint price increases: the heavy price mentality of pigs has also brought the market to a sustainable level in the red, with the support of big pigs, the rest of the family has a price base, which makes it more difficult to buy the butchers and has to raise the price to collect the pigs。
How long has the price of this round gone up? Will the price of pigs increase in december
In his latest edition of the weekly early warning, mr. Summerfried wrote that the impact on the market of the new positive import of frozen products had increased, and that, in addition to the speed at which the freezer was released and the market's acceptance had declined, some of the freezers had now stopped and the amount of pork imported had dropped significantly over the past two months. In the context of higher consumption, the domestic increase in the supply of raw pigs is limited and the unexpected reduction in external import replenishment is difficult. Overall, the price of pigs in november has moved out of the middle of the “u”-type movement as expected. In the current market, there is still room for an increase in pig prices in the coming week, but when entering december, attention will need to be paid to the concentration of large pig farm enterprises and second-generation fertilizer households。
In fact, the rise in pig prices after the entry into december depends largely on consumption and the mindset of each party. Although the spring season was largely preceded by an increase in pork consumption, the recent occurrence of frozen meat was also a support for fresh pork consumption in the country. It is worth noting, however, that while the increase in consumption can support the price of pigs, there is room for them to fall if the supply side increases more strongly than consumption。
A number of pigs say that four quarters of raw pigs will be sold in large quantities, more than 50 per cent of the total annual sales. Thus, in the case of large numbers of raw pigs, there is still a significant decline in the price of pigs if consumption does not keep pace with the output. Moreover, if the recent price hikes are not sustained, they will lead to a concentrated sale of pig farmers, at which point the price of the pig will not go up, and there may be a significant fall。
It is not surprising that the price of pigs has risen. Finally, in the larger context of the recovery of pig production, it would be preferable for farmers not to sell it blindly, otherwise they could easily become victims of the price of pigs. Take advantage of the timing and budget。
Let's take a look at last week's comments:
@win ying @win ying one is an analysis of the reduction of imported meat due to the effects of the epidemic, and the other is an increase in consumption demand. So how do you think the price of pigs before new year's day and before spring
How long can the price of pigs go up? How does the december pig price run? How's the price of pigs before new year's eve? Welcome to the conference
