This newspaper's reporter, zhang min
On the evening of 5 january, several listed pig companies disclosed production sales data for 2022. For listed pigs, 2022 is an extraordinary year. During the year, the rapid transformation of the pig cycle and the gradual over-sliding of the period became a special feature of the pig market, and pig companies slowly moved out of the industry's underestimation and towards a profit payout period. Experts predict that the production capacity of pigs will increase or increase steadily in 2023, and the concentration of the manufacturing industry will continue to increase。
“in 2022, the boar market pattern can be divided into three stages of `fall-backing' `three-rounding' and `under pressure', rotational, bottom-profit-driven and breeding-time differentials without changing the underlying logic, but the cyclical pace is driven by the abundance of industrial capital, changes in industrial structure and changes in industrial farming practices.” the senior researcher of the chinese shinjian farming industries, wei zheng, told the daily securities journalist, “in 2022, the pig market passed through the valley and the profits were paid off. In the post-african swine plague period, the market environment has become more complex: the spilling of the epidemic has continued to create exogenous shocks, with pre-phased, short-lived but deep-seated production capacity decomposing the market. While post-capacity is gradually recovering with rising profits, the market is still more controversial about the pace and basis of recovery, which also means that there is room for anticipated reversals and fluctuations in the future.”
In 2022, pigs walked through the valley
On the evening of 5 january, a number of listed pigs disclosed business data for 2022. Of this total, 6. 101 million pigs were sold in herpes, representing an increase of 59. 49 per cent over the previous year's income of $11. 97663 billion. Wynn shares sold 1,790. 86 million boars and earned $4,105 million, with an average sale price of $19. 05 per kg, reflecting a change of 35. 49 per cent, 51. 26 per cent and 9. 55 per cent, respectively. The cumulative sale of raw pigs by skyrain technology was 1,662 million, a decrease of 31. 91 per cent over the same period, and the cumulative sales revenue of $317 million, a decrease of 38. 50 per cent over the same period. The shares of tung shwe sold 5203 million raw pigs, earned 1,161 million yuan in the sale of raw pigs, and averaged 23. 78 yuan/kg in the sale of commercial pigs, representing a change of 41. 53 per cent, 23. 18 per cent and 14. 38 per cent respectively. Recently, the tianbong food bulletin stated that the company sold 4,4215,000 foodstuffs in 2022 (of which 6,416,000 porks) and generated 8,731 million yuan and an average sale price of 18. 35 yuan/kg (the average commodity pig price was 18. 10 yuan/kg), representing a change of 3. 31 per cent, 1. 84 per cent and -0. 17 per cent respectively. According to a bulletin issued by bjp, the company has accumulated 5. 1893 million pigs, an increase of 59. 87 per cent over the same period。
According to december 2022 data alone, 6. 02 million pigs (of which 48,000 were sold by pigs) were sold in the rangelands, with proceeds of sale of $13. 175 billion. Wynn shares sold 1,873. 2 million boars (including pigs and fresh products) and earned $4. 290 billion, with an average sale price of $18. 80 per kg. The rings changed by 4. 64 per cent, -27. 69 per cent and -22. 02 per cent, respectively, and by 52. 67 per cent, 87. 25 per cent and 15. 98 per cent respectively. In the same year, there was a decrease of 46. 46 per cent and 41. 79 per cent. The eastern swe shares sold 478 pigs, of which 339,000 were manufactured, 114,000 piglets, 0. 19 million were phased out and 0. 05 million were grown, resulting in sales revenues of $114 million, a decrease of 23. 04 per cent. The average sale price of the company's merchandise pig was $24. 47/kg, a decrease of 10. 08 per cent in the ring ratio. Four hundred and eight hundred and thirty-eight thousand (one hundred and twenty-nine thousand (one hundred and twenty-nine (one hundred and twenty-nine) food sales, with an average sale price of one hundred and ninety-eight million yuan (nine hundred and thirty-five yuan/kg) and a change in the ring comparison, respectively. There were 513. 1 million sales of bio-pigs, which increased by 14. 04 per cent, or 23. 06 per cent over the same period。
In an interview with the daily securities journal, zhu zhengyong, chief analyst of the whole industry chain monitoring of pork industry, ministry of agriculture and rural development, researcher of the beijing livestock and veterinary institute of the chinese academy of agricultural sciences, said: “in terms of supply, there was a phased oversupply in the first half of 2022, and in the second half of the year there was a gradual shift towards a general equilibrium. At the same time, the consumption phase affects consumption demand for pork, including boosting and inhibiting pig prices. There has been a small increase in the production of raw pigs, both in terms of the volume of raw pigs, and a smaller increase in the supply than in the domestic production and production of raw pigs, given the import of 1. 75 million tons of raw pigs. The trend in the price of pigs shows a decline in the first quarter, a reversal in the second quarter, an increase in the third quarter and a return in the fourth quarter. Overall, 2022 was the fourth consecutive year in which small profits were maintained, but the level of profits showed a downward trend.”
Pan ting ting, a pig analyst at the shanghai steel union agricultural enterprise, told a journalist in the daily securities journal: “from the trend throughout the year, the price of the pig fell first and then then fell again in 2022, with the price rising in mid-october. During the first quarter, the supply of raw pigs was relaxed, the marketed pigs were largely at a loss stage, and the strain on the supply of raw pigs was concentrated mainly in the second and third quarters, the increase in the supply of raw pigs in the fourth quarter and the fall in the price of pigs.”
Increased or steady pig production in 2023
Zhu yingyong stated: “looking at the supply end of 2023, the output of raw pigs and the capacity of pig meat production have increased slightly and the volume of imported pork may increase slightly. On the demand side, consumption demand in the second quarter of this year will return to normal levels, and in the second half of the year will move into a situation of double demand and supply, without a three-quarter 2022 phase-down situation.”
“the relatively cautious motivation of pig-making columns since 2022 and the slowness of the overall upward trend in the production of fertilizers have made it difficult to increase significantly the number of pigs born in 2023. The price of pigs in 2023 is expected to run above the cost line in general.” pan ting ting said。
The demand for pork is dominated by domestic consumption and exports are relatively small, so the demand for raw pigs is largely consistent with population growth and relatively stable overall. In the relatively fixed-capacity pig farming market, increased industrial concentration will result when capital spending is increased by capital-intensive, farming-experienced and risk-resistant leading firms to expand their capacity. According to the future development plan for the boarhead enterprises, by 2025 only 13 pig enterprises, such as wen's shares, herds, zhengbong science and technology, and new hope, had a combined target of 294 million, with market occupancy of 13 expected to reach 42 per cent by 2025。
The concentration of the pighead industry remains the greatest concern in the development of pig production in 2023, and zhu yong yong stated: “in terms of trends, the concentration of the pighead industry will increase, but the rate of increase will decrease. In terms of the release of production capacity, 2021 and the first half of 2022 were the period during which the production of pig capacity was released, but starting in the second half of 2022, the focus of the work of pig farming enterprises has shifted to improving management efficiency, and overall productivity growth is slowing.”
Zhu jingyong recommended that “in 2023, the scale of farming should no longer be increased blindly by listed pigs and that, while the cost of feed remains high, the focus should be on reducing efficiency gains. For example, the reduction of soybeans, the improvement of productivity in the breeding of fatty pigs, and the control of diseases. Moreover, the current demand for pork is at the platform stage, and it is more important for enterprises to manage enterprise value chains, especially the risks of industrial chains.”
(editor baekbao)
