The year 2026 marked the beginning of the “fifty-fifty-fifty” programme, with an important mission of pre-eminence and planning. The current global economic situation is complex and volatile, with a high incidence of geo-conflicts and increased trade protectionism, and how can china's economy be bypassed in a high and volatile external environment? What are the future engines of economic growth? How will macroeconomic policies work? What are the opportunities for broad asset allocation
In recent days, the chief economist for national sea securities, natsumi, has made a macroeconomic outlook for 2026。
Promoting consumption, steady investment, and strong export synergies to activate internal dynamics
Referring to the external environment facing china's economy in 2026, shashi pointed out that the uncertainty of united states policy constituted an important variable affecting the global economic and trade order。
Turning to the growth dynamics of china's economy in 2026, shayuan stated that, despite the complex external environment, our economy is solid and has great potential, and that the long-term trend towards good will remains unchanged. It will activate the internal dynamics and achieve a qualitative increase by promoting consumption, steady investment and strong export synergies。
Consumption will continue to play a key role as the main engine of economic growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, final consumption expenditure contributed 53. 5 per cent to economic growth, boosting GDP growth by 2. 8 percentage points. In 2024, our final consumption expenditure was 56. 6 per cent of GDP, with significant disparities between the united states (81. 4 per cent), japan (74. 8 per cent) and korea (66 per cent), with residential service consumption being the main driver. In 2024, per capita service consumption expenditure was 46. 1 per cent, well below 68. 5 per cent in the united states and 59. 9 per cent in korea。
The “fifty five” planning proposal places high priority on consumption and proposes a strong boost to consumption. International experience suggests that the share of service consumption increases with GDP per capita, and that the united states rose from 50. 7 per cent to 68. 5 per cent between 1970 and 2024, which is a reference for our consumption escalation。
In terms of investment, investment in high-technology industries will be an important growth pole. The self-reliance of science and technology was one of the core objectives of the “fifty-five” period, focusing on such priority areas as integrated circuits, industrial carriers, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials and bio-manufacturing. The country will improve its new national system and take extra-conventional measures to promote key core technological barriers, which will anchor investment in high-technology industries。
On the export side, our exports will remain resilient despite the pressures of slowing global trade. This resilience has come from two main sources: the remarkable diversification of export markets, in which the countries of the global south have become our main trading partners, and the continued optimization of the structure of export products, which has shifted from a dominant focus on labour-intensive products such as light swirling to one centred on high-value-added products such as electromechanical products。
With regard to the policy outlook, shayuan believes that, in order to guarantee a smooth economy, macro-policy will continue to work in 2026, with ample scope for fiscal and monetary policy. Active fiscal policy will integrate risk prevention and development and will always be in place。
A slow cow technology and gold are hot
With regard to the large asset allocation in 2026, sharpay made a clear judgement that unit a was expected to continue its slow cattle movement, that the technology plate would become the main line and that the demand for gold allocation would remain strong。
The slow pace of a's development has been underpinned mainly by high-level attention to the stable development of capital markets, the proposal of the “fifty-five” plan to improve the inclusiveness, adaptability and coordination of capital market systems, the csrc's continuous improvement of the market ecology of long-term investments, the promotion of medium- and long-term financing, such as social security, insurance and annuities, the strengthening of stable market mechanisms, and the determination to prevent large-scale market collapses。
The value of investment has been highlighted as the central focus of the “155” period. China's modernization is underpinned by the modernization of science and technology, and the proposal for the “fifty-five” programme clearly proposes the comprehensive enhancement of autonomous innovation capabilities, taking advantage of the high levels of technological development and constantly generating new qualitative productivity. The country has achieved a sustained breakthrough in the area of ai, with the number of ai-related papers produced in 2024 being the highest in the world, the number of artificial intelligence patents accounting for 60 per cent of the global total, the number of major models issued being the highest in the world, and the number of artificial intelligence enterprises exceeding 5,300, forming a complete industrial system. Compared to the large united states science and technology companies, our science and technology firms still have much more room to catch up in terms of market value, capital spending, international trade frictions and the acceleration of domestic production alternatives, and the science and technology sector will become the central growth point for capital markets。
In gold, the demand for configuration will remain strong. The current global economic uncertainty, the frequency of geopolitical conflicts, the presence of gold as a hard asset “without borders”, and the risk-averse nature are highlighted. According to the data, the global central bank’s gold acquisition boom continued, with an annual average of more than 1,000 tons in 2022-2024, 634 tons in net purchases in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 12 months in gold holdings and 234. 5 tons in gold reserves at the end of october 2025. In terms of supply and demand, global gold production in 2016-2024 was about 3,600 tons per year, but demand in 2022-2024 increased rapidly to more than 4,500 tons per year, and production in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2677 tons, bringing demand to 3640 tons, a supply and demand gap that continues to widen and will support the growth of gold prices。
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