There's no more news of the most recent ripples in the coil of pigs than the “crawl” of pig prices. - 6. 5 kg of pigs dropped to a minimum of $181 per head, falling by 18 per cent a week; 7 kg of mainstream bargains also hovered only between 210 and 250 yuan. A net loss of $60-80 for the sale of a pig is calculated as feed, labour, depreciation, and the passion of the supplement is completely cooled。
This scene is like the "to the dark hour" at the bottom of the cycle. But what's unusual is that someone in the industry is getting excited -- because the "accelerator key" is finally pressed。
I. Why is the inverting signal getting brighter
Pigs fall through the cost line, never a small thing. It cuts right through the sow field:
• frustration of confidence in the patch — the family is afraid to catch the pig and the pig cannot sell it
• cash flow is cut off — the pattern of the sow field selling pig blood is unsustainable
• exhausting speeds — selling one to lose, rather than killing a pig。
The more immediate signal is that the price of the pig has fallen simultaneously and that the number of the pig in the slaughterhouse has increased significantly. This means that some farmers have begun to “break the man”。
These are typical characteristics of the ability to decipher access to the “deep water zone” and are a real prerequisite for the price cycle of pigs。
Then why isn't the reverse coming? Where is it
The signal is bright, but objective data tells us that the fire is still the last one。
• the capacity to keep the sow stock stands at 3. 904 million, which is 1. 54 million more than the normal holdings given by the ministry of agriculture and rural development. On the basis of 16 fats per mother per year, the additional 1. 54 million are “capacity surpluses” of nearly 25 million excess fats。
• the discount rate for the elimination of sows is still 0. 76 (i. E. 76 per cent of the price of sows), which has fallen by 0. 65 when the real panic of the past is lost. What does 0. 76 mean? This suggests that most of the pigfields are still “hard” and have not reached the desperate stage of selling pigs at no cost。
In short, the depth of evaporation is not enough. The market needs to go through another one, so that the surplus of 1. 54 million pigs will be truly “dileve” before prices are reversed to a solid basis。
When is the real “reverse window”
The rate of rhythm is as follows:
• late in the third quarter (august-september): improved supply margins, the effects of the winter epidemic are beginning to be felt, the exits are falling and the price of pigs is expected to rebound in a decent wave。
• quarterly (october-december): it is the real battleground of reversal. Over time, the results of the process have been gradually realized, while the consumption season has increased, and the supply-demand relationship can be substantially reversed。
It is still in a period of “facility acceleration but not completion” and the price of pigs is likely to grind to the bottom and do not expect to turn over overnight。
Iv. Practical recommendment for family familys
At the current node, strategy is more important than prediction:
• pigs (above 140 kg): don't gamble in the market, while prices have rebounded slightly in the recent past, they fall in a bag at a height. Big pig meat is taller than fat。
• piggy (110-130 kg): rolling out of two to three batches, neither backsliding nor betting on unilateral, smoothing risks。
• second fertility: no touching. The low cost of pigs and pigs, but the high price of feed, combined with high pre-quarter uncertainty, results in a very low risk gain for second-born children, not to be a “taggerman”。
And finally, say what you think
The bottom of each round of pig cycles is the ultimate test of farmers ' finances and mindsets. It is pain and hope — it means that the industry has finally begun to “shaving for poison”. The reverse will not happen overnight, but the darkest times are often the closest to dawn。
What's your pig price? Welcome to the comment section, and i'll see if your local patch is appropriate。
Keep an eye on me. Every day, a hard nuclear pig's data takes you through the cycle fog。
Let's wait for the real reverse point。
