In recent days, winn shares (300498. Sz) have responded to issues such as the african swine plague at an online conference organized by china gold. China gold corporation, the rich countries fund, the remand fund, the plenum fund, the chongyang investment and morgan chase, among others, brought together 338 institutional investors。
Africa's swine plague: the rate of loss in the infection field has decreased significantly compared to previous years
Wynn shares indicate that, since the winter of last year, the african swine plague has had an impact on parts of the industry, particularly the north. The northern part of the company has also been affected, but overall, this year has been a better year for prevention than in previous years, with a sharp decline in the rate of loss in the field of infection compared to previous years and an overall manageable loss. The overall control of the southern region of the company is better. According to recent statistics, the company as a whole is moving towards good production. As the weather warms, the ease of disinfection, etc., increases significantly, the disease-control pressure gradually decreases. The company has set up a task force on production prevention and control in the north, focusing on energy and resources for disease control in the north. In practice, companies continue to build on their prevention methods and successful experiences to further improve biosafety standards. With cumulative experience of prevention and control, companies are becoming more effective in preventing and controlling。
With regard to the price of pigs: it is expected to be better than the price of pigs in the second quarter
Wynn shares claim that the price of pigs rose slowly from less than $7 per pound at the end of january to about $7. 5 per pound in the near future, showing a general upward trend of shocks and a lower probability that the price of pigs would continue to decline. In addition to seasonal effects, the persistent low price of pigs may be associated with the early release of social pigs, such as fear of the effects of the disease, which leads to an increase in the supply of staged meat. As the impact of the epidemic in africa diminishes, the supply side returns to normal, and as policies to prevent and control the new epidemic are adjusted, socio-economic activity increases markedly and supply-demand relations are expected to improve gradually. Therefore, the company expects the price of pigs to be better than the price of pigs in the second quarter。
The wynn shares indicate that the initial target of 26 million for the sale of boars (with pig and fresh products) in 2023 has not been adjusted and the production of seedlings has been steadily carried out in accordance with the original plan and rhythm. The production of the african swine plague vaccine has not yet been considered and discussed by the company. The company has now established a better biosafety control system, which is constantly being optimized. Although there has been a loss of a phased area, the loss is manageable. If there is sufficient evidence to confirm the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine, the company may pilot its use and judge its effectiveness, and it will also make an economic comparison between the cost of vaccines and the cost of existing non-pest control systems before deciding whether to use them。
With regard to farming costs: combined costs are expected to continue declining
With regard to the combined cost of first-quarter pork farming, the wynn shares indicated that cost data for march were not available. According to the company accounting standards, meat pigs and sows that the company had phased out during the month were to be absorbed directly into the combined cost of raising pork for sale during the month. In terms of cost segmentation, direct cost increases in the combined costs for january and february were modest compared to the normal months, with the main increase being in other gains and losses. Other gains and losses were due mainly to the fact that the voluntary elimination of pigs and the lower price of the corrosive pigs resulted in lower residual value of pig deaths, which led to higher losses. Overall, one quarter has been affected by, inter alia, a phased epidemic, with combined costs for boar farming slightly higher than last year's average for the whole year, with a preliminary estimate of combined costs of approximately $8-9 per pound for pork farming in the first quarter. But it's abnormal, it's phased, it's not going to last. The combined cost of hog farming in the first quarter of the year shows an overall downward trend from month to month. Assuming that the cost of feed raw materials remains constant, the company has set a combined cost target of less than $8 per pound for meat and pork farming for the whole year of 2023, and is able to achieve stability and prevent inefficiency, primarily in view of the next stage of the company's production. As experience has shown in previous years, the probability of an epidemic has been significantly reduced as the weather warms, while companies continue to learn from the experience of african swine plague control, which is becoming increasingly effective and the combined costs are expected to continue to decline. The company is confident that it will be able to meet its annual cost targets。
With regard to the availability of sows: work towards achieving the target of 1. 7 million by the end of the year
Wynn shares indicate that in february, the company had a listing rate of about 93 per cent, that the production cost of the seedlings was about $430/head and that the delivery rate of the sows was around 80 per cent. In february, the company dropped approximately 2. 3 million seedlings, almost the same as last december and january, mainly because of the 28 days in february of this year, which was shorter. Simple measurements based on single-day seedlings increased from last december and january. In february, 65-70 per cent of the company dullock ooze was used, and the company will continue to increase the use of dullock ooze. An initial target of 80 per cent utilization by the end of the year has been set, the pre-optimal rate of use of african swine plague has been largely restored, efforts have been made to increase the market rate of boars and to reduce the ratio of meat in the breeding process. In addition to this, the company will also adopt the “triple hybrid” form of production of pigs, which will be produced in such a way as to be able to achieve good growth performance and maintain the reproductive performance of the mother, which will ensure the timely and adequate supply of the mother。
Wynn's shares indicate that the company's psy in february (the number of weaning pigs per mother per year) was close to 21, up from january. Wynn shares claim that there are significant differences between the psy level of the company and the psy level of the company's counterpart, which may be due mainly to differences in statistical calibres. In addition, factors such as the structure of the varieties and the number of fetuses can influence psy indicators. It is also clear to companies that there is still a gap between the current psy and the company's pre-pest levels of 24-25 compared to historical production performance, suggesting that there is room for improvement in the quality and productive capacity of the pigs. At the same time, there is room for detail and progress in the basic management of the company in the delivery and care processes. The company will make full use of its breeding advantages and endeavour to improve the relevant indicators。
Wynn shares claim that at this stage, the company has more than 1. 4 million female pigs and approximately 5 to 600,000 reserve ones. The northern winter reserve is more difficult to gain access to, and there has been a small increase in the number of pigs available for one quarter. Company breeding systems are now being restored, and the speed and capacity to supplement the sows have increased significantly. To be warm, the increase in the number of fatty pigs will be accelerated and efforts will be made to meet the target of 1. 7 million fatty pigs by the end of 2023, set at the beginning of the year。
In addition, the winning shares indicate that the company did not purchase any extra pigs this year, that the company has a well-established breeding system and that the reserve is sufficient to be replenished at any time. There is no large-scale out-purchase of pigs this year, and the company's existing breeding system is sufficient to support the company's present and future development needs. If the price of the pig is sufficiently cheap and there is insufficient local seedlings, it is possible for the company to buy out some piglets in small quantities at the stage. As farming efficiency increases, the average size of corporate cooperative farmers increases. In 2022, the average size of cooperative farming households was approximately 1,200. The average annual rearing size of cooperative farmers is approximately 2600 - 2700, based on 2. 2 batches per year。
There is a real risk that part of the farm will be eliminated
Wynn's shares indicate that, given the industry's profitability in recent years, there is a real risk that part of the farm size will be eliminated, mainly because of the fact that in recent years there has been a general loss in the industry and that there have been few real profitable businesses. At the same time, there is now a high risk of epidemics, a significant increase in the difficulty of farming and a significant increase in the cost and input of farming. In a low-profile situation, the expansion of head-to-head pig farming enterprises is largely due to the greater availability of publicly traded companies and the fact that the capital market can be used to support the continued expansion of enterprises, with a smaller share of real capital expansion。
