Aluminium plume, a small and beautiful track for lithium electricity, has concentrated competitive patterns in the industry, with the leading market accounting for about 38 per cent, while the price of aluminum plume has been high for customers since this year, with cumulative increases in processing fees amounting to 1000 to 1,500 yuan per ton, and we estimate that supply and demand in the aluminium plume sector will continue to improve from the second half of 2026 to 2027, laying the foundation for subsequent price increases. At the same time, the commercialization of sodium ion batteries has progressed to stages 1 to 10, with the full benefit of doubling the amount of use per unit of aluminum plume technology to be established。
Aluminium is one of the most concentrated parts of the lithium medium-range material pattern, which belongs to the small, american track。
Battery aluminum is one of the most concentrated components of lithium mid-trip materials in a competitive pattern。
The price of aluminum has increased since the beginning of the year, and supply and demand are expected to continue to improve over the next year。
According to smm data, the current processing cost of 12/13/15 m lithium aluminum is 1. 6/145/155/t. The most widely applied 12 mm has increased cumulatively by 1,500 yuan/t. The remaining 13/15 mm has also increased cumulatively by 1,000 yuan/t。
We expect an effective capacity of 1. 16 million tons and 1. 41 million tons, respectively, in the aluminium chain in 2026-27, compared to 21 per cent, while demand is expected to require 98-1 million tons of aluminium in 2026-27 and 122-1. 3 million tons, corresponding to an increase of about 25 per cent in the industry, with capacity utilization rates of 85-86 per cent and 87-92 per cent, respectively. The level of industrial tension will increase further, laying the groundwork for higher prices later this year and next year。
The benefits of aluminum aluminum after sodium discharges are high and the unit usage is doubled。
Aluminium beryllium in the sodium electron material benefits by doubling certainty. The material systems that differ from sodium orthodes, negative poles and electrolyte are subject to significant changes and individual uncertainties in the technical route, sodium aluminum: a technical route and production system and lithium aluminum are not very different, except for a surface combing process after the original production line; two units of usage are doubled, and the sodium anion sheet is expected to use 800-1,000 tons of aluminum aluminum, more than twice as much as lithium batteries。
Investment proposals: the current aluminium ceramic chain has the following logic: a high concentration of competition patterns; a high price increase coverage is expected to show a significant improvement in performance in the first half of the year; supply and demand in the industry will continue to improve between the second half of 32026 and 2027, laying the foundation for further price increases in the future; 4 sodium ion batteries will enter the 1 to 10 phase, with full benefit from a doubling of the route of aluminium ceramine technology。
Aluminium is one of the most concentrated parts of lithium mid-air material, which belongs to the small american track
Aluminum can be divided into thermal and casting processes in terms of process routes. Of these, casting + pressure is still the dominant manufacturing route for battery aluminum, mainly because of the advantages of short processes, low energy consumption and low cost; but thermal runoff still has a qualitative advantage in high performance, high consistency and high end uses, especially for scenarios with higher requirements for mechanics, processing and corrosion resistance。
In product form, aluminum can be divided mainly into light, carbon and composite aluminium. Among them, the halo is still the largest currently on the base, and carbon beryllium coating has entered the level of emissions as a proven high-value-added upgrade, while composite aluminium beryllium as a forward route is in the industrial climb phase, which remains to be further optimized。
Aluminium is currently evolving from 12-13 m to below 10 m. National standards for 2022 have further increased the tensile strength of aluminum below 10 m, and the industry is moving in the direction of 280 mpa+ and 4% extension。
Battery aluminum is one of the most concentrated components of lithium mid-trip materials in a competitive pattern。
The price of aluminum has increased since the beginning of the year, and supply and demand are expected to improve steadily next year
In terms of processing fees, the average processing fee for the aluminium battery industry is in the up-to-date period. According to smm data, the current processing cost of 12/13/15 m lithium aluminum is 1. 6/145/155/t. The most widely applied 12 mm has increased cumulatively by 1,500 yuan/t. The remaining 13/15 mm has also increased cumulatively by 1,000 yuan/t。
The core logic of price increases depends more on industry demand and supply than on the reasons why firms in the industry were previously less profitable and more demanding. In terms of supply and demand, while four to five aluminum companies, including the best and the best, have increased production, the scale and scale of the expansion have been relatively restrained and no large-scale expansion has occurred。
We expect an effective capacity of 1. 16 million tons and 1. 41 million tons, respectively, in the aluminium chain of batteries in 2026-27, compared to 21 per cent, while the demand side projects a demand of 98-1 million tons and 122,3 million tons, corresponding to an increase in the industry of about 25 per cent, for 2026-27 years, with a capacity utilization rate of 85-86 per cent and 87-92 per cent, respectively. On a quarterly basis, 2026 q2 aluminum is in a state of supply and demand-side constraints, with 83 per cent of the industry-wide capacity utilization, with the headlines largely operating at full capacity or even overwork, and 2026 q3-q4 with limited new release capacity, but demand is approaching a boom season, which will further increase the level of industry tension and lay the groundwork for price increases in the second half of this year and next year。
Aluminium beams have a high degree of certainty of benefit after sodium discharge, doubling usage per unit
Assuming the price of lithium carbonate at the end of 2026 is 200,000 yuan/t, sodium power at the core level is expected and the price of lithium is expected to drive sodium electricity from 0-1 to 1-10 this year. The sodium ion battery industry is expected to deliver 4-6gwh, 30-50gwh in 2026-2027。
Both positive and negative poles of sodium ion batteries use aluminum as a fusion, the underlying reason being that sodium and aluminium do not react to electrochemically alloying, while lithium and aluminium react strongly at a low electrical level, resulting in aluminum failure. The cost of supersing aluminium is much lower than that of copper, which is currently priced at 40,000 tonnes, compared to about 120,000 tonnes of copper, resulting in a significant decrease in sodium battery fusion costs compared to lithium batteries。
In the sodium electron material system, double the certainty of use of aluminium beryllium benefits. Distinguished from sodium orthodes, negative poles, electrolytics, etc., material systems are subject to greater change and individual uncertainties in technical routes, while sodium aluminum: 1 technical route and production system and lithium aluminum are not very different and require only a surface comboting process after the original line; 2 units of sodium ion cells are double, with a projected consumption of 800-1,000 tons of sodium aluminum alumina, more than two times that of lithium batteries。
Investment recommendations
Overall, there is a logic for the current aluminium plume chain in lithium mid-air materials: a highly concentrated competitive pattern; a high price increase of 1,000 to 1500 yuan/tonne cumulatively, which is expected to show a marked improvement in performance in the first half of the year; relative restraint in the expansion of production in the aluminium plume sector between the second half of 32026 and 2027, which will continue to improve supply and demand, laying the foundation for further price increases in the future; and the entry of sodium ion batteries into phases 1 to 10, which will benefit fully by doubling the route and unit usage of aluminium plume technology。
1) lower-than-anticipated downstream demand: the sales end may be affected by weak demand for terminal new energy vehicles, storage, etc., and the production end may be affected less than expected, e. G. By large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, which in turn affects the volume and profitability of company-related operations。
2) volatility of raw materials prices is higher than expected: there has been a sharp swing in the phase of raw materials prices since 2021, and high and unstable prices have had some impact on end demand, while disturbing the short-term performance of companies。
3) the impact of policy fluctuations: lithium batteries and materials currently account for about 80 per cent of global supplies, policies at the trade end, such as tariffs, tax rebates, carbon emissions at the production end, and changes in supply and demand or profits in the industrial chain resulting from changes in policies such as demand-side subsidies。
Xu lin: chief analyst in the industry of the china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-china-africa-united states-china-united states-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united nations-united。
