The original, the unlost zhang guide
Where does beijing city go
Is it a rise or a fall
This is a topic that has been discussed recently by many friends and guidance。
The two voices that sing too much and too little are always heard, but many points of view are more like emotional outbursts or for traffic。
As a senior practitioner, the kyoto navigator maintains that without research, there is no voice and that it is necessary to go deeper into the real market situation before we can give fans objective and rational advice。
To that end, we have chosen the target area for our study in tunzhou for two reasons:
One is that the city of thongzhou, which is located in the beijing market as a whole, goes to several remote suburban districts, is in the middle of the district ranking, with the turnover remaining at the sixth highest in the city for three consecutive years and is representative
Second, after about nine years of the country's most stringent double-limit policy controls, more than a year of market change could reflect the geometry of the policy and be seen as a microcosm of beijing。
I'm sorry
First of all, we look at a new collection of data. In the first half of this year, the status of the new houses in tunzhou was as follows:
1643 units, with an area of 18. 51 million m2, with an average value of $53101/m2, with a value of $9,829 million。
Compare this set of data with the transactional data for the whole of 2024:
A total of 3817 units, with an area of 41. 65 million m2, were sold at an average value of $5,2331/m2, or $21,790 million。
As can be seen, in the first half of the year, the turnover, size and amount were less than half that of the previous year, with a slight increase of 1. 5 percentage points on average。
If compared with the average size and price of the transaction, this year's figure has risen from 109m2/571,000 to 113m2/59. 8 million, indicating that the main group of home buyers in thongzhou city are still dominated by newly converted families, but that the decline in the number of contracts is worth warning。
This means that in the second year, when the double limit was lifted, the base number of people who chose to buy houses in the canton did not increase, and the long-pressed market rebound did not occur。
I'm sorry
If you don't think it's enough to compare this year and a half, then we'll have another set of data for almost five years:
Data from the above table show that in 2024, when the double limit was lifted, the market did not rebound even in the four previous years。
Compared to 2020, when the mask incident began, the number of deals was 366 fewer and the amount of the deals was 129 million yuan, but the average price of the deals rose by 5 per cent。
In the past five years, only thongzhou averaged less than $50,000/m2 in 2020 and 2022, while in other years it reached 50,000 with a slight upward trend。
I'm sorry
Why is there an increase in the price? Is the price of houses in thongzhou up
No! The increase in the average exchange price is based on the prices of the main market forces. In other words, the average offer is dominated by the hot market。
For almost two to three years, it's been sold in the state, but it's taken out of the pear garden, the 8-mile bridge, and it's the best-selling plate in the state。
Like the pear park, which is located at the heart of the old town of tunzhou, it can be widely accepted by geo-clients and absorb spills by subways and co-optations, and it is no good to sell them。
Look how hot it has been for the recent arrival of the new market at the 8-mile bridge, and then look at the other sales buildings, you'll know the importance of the location and the plate to the state market。
If you do not believe me, why not put the newly planned large area of housing in zai xingung on the earth's shelf instead of the best canal 3 at the centre of the sub-centre。
Since the inventory of more than 8,000 new housing units in the tunzhou region is now at a rate of about five years' de-development, it will take at least two years to clear it, and in that case, who would dare to take the floor easily。
The land in canal 3 is so good that it is sold at a minimum price that, on the one hand, nearly $7. 5 billion, and few landowners have such appetites, on the other hand, the project has a long development cycle that does not correspond to the current fast-moving style of developers, and no one wants to “deeply till” to become “deep”。
I'm sorry
In conclusion, from the analysis of the dimensions of the data on the opening of new houses in the tunzhou region in recent years, it can be concluded that even with the significant policy of lifting the double limit, the tunzhou market has not been able to reverse the tide in a large way。
Second, after our field research, we have found that the market for new houses in tunzhou is very fragmented, that there is too much room for fire to sell, and that there is no room for calm。
Thirdly, this year's implementation of good house standards, the roll-out of high-quality plots has given homeowners more preferences, but each time, for a stock project in the market, it is undoubtedly cold water, and it has to go down to lower prices and even lower prices in the mud, which is hard to walk。
Therefore, it is no longer possible to solve the problem of how many more policies can be put in place for the downstairs market to emerge from its cyclical predicament。
For example, the fear that the total lifting of the restrictions would lead to a retaliatory rebound in the price of the house and a resurgence of the boom in the house is a little too much, to say the least, for a decade or so。
By the way, when the market entered its next cycle, the new house slowed down, just because the product was bad? Is the introduction of good house standards in a weak market, and the production of a wave of traffic by higher occupancy rates for land-based projects really a cure
I'm sorry
Perhaps we should think differently, based on chinese medical evidence, that a person's eyes are ill-sighted, not necessarily eye problems, and that the roots are likely to be on the liver or kidney。
In conclusion, this paper is not about the city of failure, but rather about research to tell the truth about how to judge the facts. In an ice-fire environment, we cannot feel the heat of fire alone, let alone the cold of ice。
In the first half of the year, the deal for the new house in beijing was a happy one with comparable prices, but the coolness behind the boom and some joys were not well known。
Policies are not all-powerful, but without them they cannot. It is not likely that the second half of the year will be better if only good data from the surface, unknown underwater conditions, remain blindly optimistic and decision-making moves ahead。
I am the zhang kyojii navigator, whose core members have served zong zong and known people in business for more than 20 years, and who have been running many of the life tables in the city, are native-born beijingians. We neither sell anxiety nor sing empty songs. We serve you with professionalism and conscience。
We will continue to follow and study the market and development in the tsang region, and will welcome comments from the background and contact us。
