Since may, the chinese car market has seen an unprecedented structural upheaval. On the one hand, the rover, which had raised 280,000 and landed close to 900,000, has fallen to 180,000 naked cars in parts of the world, with three years of shrinking by over 70 per cent; on the other hand, the first 10 years of retail sales of cars in may were completely covered by the new energy model, and the fuel truck disappeared completely from the list. The luxurious brands cry and sell and the traditional masters fall out of the top 10 - these two things come together, and there's a sense of the end of the fuel truck age. And the turn of the industry is setting in motion a life-and-death exercise in the a stock market to reassess the value of the chain。
The collapse of the fuel truck began with the collapse of the price system. Rover won the official aurora l instruction price of $429. 8 million, and now some of the terminal offers have been down to $179. 8 million and the membrane recorder has been sent. From the difficulty of obtaining a car to selling a fracture, there is a reality of high stocks and depleted demand. And the price falls far more than the rovers. According to the interface news, 31 bmw-type adjustment guides were reduced by a maximum of 301,000; the main vehicles, such as mercedes-c and glc, were officially reduced by up to 69,000; and the price of odia6l, naked, fell to 260,000, leaving more than 60,000 daily births unsold. According to data provided by the secretary-general of the united nations, choi dong-soo, a total of 32 conventional fuel trucks were reduced between january and may of this year, representing a reduction of more than 40 per cent in size and still accelerating. The price fell to this point, and it's no longer a question of stocking — the whole price system of the fuel truck is falling like a domino。
The change in sales lists is more alarming than the collapse of prices. On the may retail list issued by the emperor, the top 10 are all new energy vehicles: gilly wants 38751 tops, followed by teslamodel y, misu7, zero a10, idea i6, pure electricity, increased distances, and three-minute couplings. From seven fuel trucks in january to only five in march, in april there was only one glitch in the eighth place and in may it was officially declared zero — a process less than five months ahead of all industry forecasts. In may, the retailing of fuel vehicles dropped by 39 per cent compared to may, leaving a market share of only 37. 1 per cent, and the reduction in fuel vehicles accounted for 82 per cent of the total reduction in passenger vehicles. That is, for every 10 vehicles sold, more than six are new sources of energy, and fuel trucks have been transformed from mainstream to minority。
Perhaps not by accident, but by necessity by a combination of multiple forces. First of all, there is no economy: ordinary families spend almost $10,000 a year on fuel trucks, more than a thousand dollars on pure electric cars, and a 10-year difference of nearly $100,000, almost equal to half a car. The former purchase of luxury cars, which now cost nothing to use, followed by continued high oil prices: oil prices had risen eight times in the course of 21 may, full of a box of 50 litres, costing $420, while electric cars of the same level had only about 30 pieces of electricity, a tenfold gap that directly pushed consumption scales towards new energy sources; the third was a radical shift in consumption perceptions: today, new energy technologies are mature, old problems such as reticulation anxiety and charging problems are largely resolved, and intelligent configurations and power performance are comprehensively crushing fuel vehicles at the same price. New energy vehicles have changed from being small to being the dominant choice. Triple pressure added to the fuel truck。
Back to the familiar capital markets, which responded more quickly than the market:
One, the car plate displays a dichotomy of ice fire. The traditional fuel car industry chain continues to be left out of funds, and the corporate stock price of the main fuel truck, engine and gearbox in stock a is generally weak, with most stock valuations falling to 5-10 times, with some companies at risk of debt default. The dealer's block was also a disaster-stricken area, with 4s shop losses spreading and associated company performance declining significantly. In contrast, the new energy industry chain, despite short-term shocks, has a clear long-term logic, and while the new energy vehicle index has been reversed in the course of the year, the core has gained long-term financial preference through technological barriers and size advantages。
2 from an institutional perspective, in its latest study, mci points out that in may the “oil and electricity segmentation” of the car market intensified, that the decline in fuel vehicle demand remains a central factor in slowing the drive, and that new energy vehicle penetration rates are high and exports continue high, with industry opportunities concentrated on three main lines: the first is a front-runner with strong product cycles and intellectual capabilities, the second is an autonomous brand with overseas channels and localized production capacity, and the third is a physical ai commercialization drive in the areas of smart driving and robotics. It was also emphasized that the main investment line throughout the year was still “truck out of the sea” and continued to recommend leading firms with global expansion capabilities, such as biadi, jiley and zero。
So the fuel truck will disappear? Choi dong-soo, secretary-general of the united nations, is straightforward in his judgment: "the industrial motorization has been decided," but the fuel truck will not be completely eliminated, and the future will be characterized by "high-end precision + tool specialization" -- – more than 300,000 luxury cars are left behind by mechanical senses and affections, and up to 150,000 step-by-step and commercial areas continue to function on the basis of passivity, while medium-end domestic fuel trucks are largely replaced by hybrids and pure electricity. For investors, the investment logic of the car plates has been completely rewritten: abandoning the old logic of fantasies about the rebound of the fuel truck, looking at the sea, intellectualization and concentration. In the short term, price battles in the industry will continue and the plate rate will probably maintain the shock; in the long run, electricization, intelligent waves will be irreversible, and new energy pools, core parts, intelligent driving, charging infrastructure, etc., continue to hold large and high-quality opportunities。
In short, this avalanche of fuel trucks is not the end of the industry, but the rebirth of the industry. The chinese automobile industry is completing its historic leap from traditional fuel to new energy sources, from the price of luxury fuel tankers to the price of a total blood change in the sales list, from a large shuffle in the pattern of cars to a revaluation of capital markets. In this transformation, behind-the-board traditional production capacity has gradually emerged and quality new energy enterprises have rapidly emerged. Capital markets are witnessing a shift in chinese automobile brands from mimics to global leadership, an era-class industrial transformation that has also created long-term layout opportunities for investors。
