Imports of pork are close to pre-african swine plague levels
Zhu yungyong stated that his country's imports of pork were affected by two factors, namely, that, in the medium to long term, the poor domestic and international prices of pork resulting from declining cost competitiveness had led to an increase in pork imports, which began in 2008 when the cost of producing our raw pork began to be higher than in countries and regions such as the united states and the european union, leading to an increase in the volume of pork imports; and that, in the short term, a decline in domestic supply and an increase in pig prices would lead to an increase in pork imports during each round of increases。
According to data from the general customs administration, following the outbreak of the african swine plague in 2018, the amount of pork imported into the country has increased steadily, from 1. 245 million tons in 2018 to 4. 39. 13 million tons in 2020, and then gradually decreased。
Our importation of pork is now close to its pre-african pig plague level. In november of the year 2023, the country accumulated 1. 46 million tons of pork, a decrease of 6. 3 per cent over the same period, while imports amounted to $23. 370 billion, an increase of 3. 5 per cent over the same period。
At the same time, in 2023, our imports of pork declined from 220,000 tons per month in january to 90,000 tons per month in november. Zhu yungyong also mentioned that our domestic pork supply was still adequate in 2024, with narrow price fluctuations, and that our domestic pork import demand is expected to continue to decline slightly in 2024。
Imports of pork from china in january-november 2023, times journalist zhou ling/cartography
In order to protect our livestock safety and prevent the spread of the disease into our country, which has, since 2023, banned the direct or indirect import of pigs, wild boars and their products from countries such as bangladesh, nepal, sweden, croatia, bosnia and herzegovina and singapore, as well as the destruction of pigs, wild boars and their products from those countries, which have been intercepted illegally, including through border controls, under customs supervision。
However, the general customs administration and the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs will also consider the possibility of lifting the ban on swine plague in africa on the basis of the risk of non-pest in each country。
In may 2023, we allowed the import of french pork that met the relevant requirements. Against the backdrop of a reduction in our imports of pork by november 2023, our imports from france fell from 5. 94 million tons in november 2022 to 578 million tons in the same period in 2023, but the share of french pork in our imports rose slightly, from 3. 68 per cent in 2022 to 3. 96 per cent in november 2023。
Market share primarily affecting importing countries
Russian pork production is the fifth largest in the world, and the all-russian union of pig farmers estimates that russia exports between 150,000 and 200,000 tons of pork per year to china。
Although belgium is the fifth largest exporter of pork in the eu, the number of pork previously exported to china is not significant。
According to data from the general customs administration, the volume of pork imported from belgium each year from 2015 to 2017, as well as from october 2018, was 7905. 25 tons, 12638. 19 tons, 7254. 47 tons and 4209. 15 tons, each accounting for less than 1 per cent of the total volume of imports and decreasing from year to year. In the wake of the african swine plague in september 2018, a multinational embargo was imposed on belgian pork, and in november of that year china had not imported belgian pork。
“in terms of production costs, the united states and brazil are markedly competitive globally because of the abundance of feed resources, and the costs of belgian production in russia and the eu countries are not currently significantly higher than in my country.” zhu yungyong stated that, for russia and belgium, 50-60 per cent of belgian pork exports, approximately 600,000 tons, and russian pork exports, about 200,000 tons, helped to add value to the value of their industrial chain。
Zhu yungyong believes that, in the context of declining import demand, the resumption of imports of pork from russia and belgium has had little impact on our pig farming industry and on the pork market, mainly as a result of changes in the market share of countries from different import sources, such as brazil, which in november 2023 surpassed spain as the country's largest import market for pork。
Before november 2023, our pork came mainly from 16 countries, including brazil, spain, canada, the united states and the netherlands, most of which are located in the eu region。
In terms of pork imports, the amount of pork exported to our country by canada, mexico and argentina in november of the year 2023 exceeded the total in 2022. Brazil, for its part, exceeded spain by 3. 774 million tons, making it the largest import market in november of the year 2023, and canada, for its part, the netherlands, the united states and denmark, the third largest pork import market in november 2023。
Zhu yungyong has also indicated that when domestic pig prices are relatively low, imports of pure meat, such as carbs and leg groups, will decline significantly, mainly in bone products, such as chops, tail bones, back bones, front leg bones, back leg bones and moonbones, which are complementary to domestic markets and import rigidities, mainly for food and processing consumption. Imports of bone products have a relatively small impact on our pork market。
The price of pigs is one of the important factors affecting the cpi, and the recent decline of 26. 1 per cent in the price of pork in december 2023, as indicated by the chief statistician of the urban division of the national statistics office, has affected the cpi by about 0. 43 percentage points, which is the main factor driving the decline in the cpi comparison。
The price of pigs is still operating at a low level, and in the event of oversupply in the pig production market, would the resumption of imports of pork from russia and belgium affect the cpi through the price of pigs
According to baek ming, a member and researcher of the graduate council of the ministry of commerce, the cpi has many factors affecting the press. Currently, imported pork accounts for a small proportion of domestic pork, the increase and fall in imports has a relatively small impact on the domestic market and the relative impact on the cpi。
