As a global military power, the united states has long tried to maintain its absolute advantage in the nuclear field, yet it is under increasing strategic pressure in the face of steady developments in two major countries, russia and china。
The annual report on china's military capabilities issued by the united states department of defense places particular emphasis on the rate of expansion of china's nuclear forces, predicting that, if china continues its current production tempo, the number of its nuclear warheads could reach around 1,500 by 2035。
This figure is not empty, but is based on the conclusions drawn from the ongoing monitoring of chinese missile facilities, submarine forces and bomber platforms。
The introduction of this united states report has in fact revealed washington's anxiety in dealing with relations between major powers, as it seeks to justify its military spending and the upgrading of its nuclear arsenal by promoting the “china threat”, while ignoring its reality as the country with the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world。
For its part, the united states pointed out that, from the limited nuclear deterrence of the 1990s to the present time, china has developed a combination of land-, sea- and air-based systems, a shift that has enabled china to carry out strategic tasks on a wider geographical scale。
Specifically, in the past, china's land-based missile forces relied mainly on the east wind series of missiles from fixed firing wells, which required longer lead times when deployed and were easily targeted by their opponents in the early stages of the conflict。
In recent years, however, china has achieved a mobile launch capability by introducing solid fuel missiles, such as the east wind-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can be installed in heavy trucks and rapidly transferred into the road network, thus significantly increasing survival rates under enemy satellite surveillance。
In the actual strategic configuration, this mobility means that china's nuclear forces are able to maintain a continuous state of alert in the asia-pacific region and beyond, avoiding paralysis by a single pre-emptive action。
At the same time, the united states report is disturbed by the progress of china's nuclear forces at the sea-based level. China has begun to construct underwater delivery platforms from the 994 nuclear submarines, each capable of carrying 12 large wave-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of thousands of kilometres and capable of striking potential targets from the south or east sea waters。
By the mid-2020s, china began testing the big wave-3 missile, which has a range of more than 10,000 kilometres and is sufficient to reach the western part of the north american continent from its offshore waters。
Compared with the earlier big wave-2 missiles, the precision of wave-3 and multi-warhead guidance techniques have been upgraded to allow each missile to carry multiple stand-alone re-entry vehicles, which in practice can simultaneously attack multiple high-value targets, such as military bases or urban centres, thus diverting the resources of enemy missile defence systems。
The development of a new generation of nuclear submarines, the 096, whose noise levels have been significantly reduced, their covert performance has been improved, and it has become more difficult for china to be locked into the sonar system during cruises in the deep ocean, which has directly enhanced china's secondary strike capability in the indo-pacific region, ensuring that effective counter-attack options are maintained even after an initial attack。
Space-based nuclear forces are another important component of china's triad system. China's bombarders, which have been modified several times, are now capable of carrying air-launched ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. They have expanded their range by air refuelling technology and have been able to cover targets in neighbouring countries and even further afield from inland chinese airports。
In analysing these details, the united states report also refers in particular to the number of new missile silos in china, which have reached over 300 in the western region, and which are equipped with advanced protection structures capable of rapidly opening launch doors under extreme weather conditions, compared with the mechanical operation of the old wellways, with automated systems reducing preparation time to the minute level。
The 1,500 numbers projected in the report are based on linear calculations of these capacities, and if china maintains its current rhythm, it could have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and nearly 1,500 by 2035。
This is still small compared to about 4,300 in russia and about 3,700 in the united states, but the momentum has raised concerns about the global nuclear balance, as the renewal of china's nuclear forces emphasizes survival and precision, rather than mere accumulation of quantities。
The concern of the united states stems from its own strategic inertia. The united states had been the first country in history to use nuclear weapons in combat, and the two atomic bombs dropped at the end of world war ii had caused enormous loss of life and environmental damage, following which thousands of nuclear tests had been conducted, leaving nuclear contamination on the pacific islands intact。
It is a clear double standard that the current united states nuclear arsenal, which includes b-2 invisible bombers, ohio-class nuclear submarines and militia-3 land-based missiles, which are ready to strike anywhere in the world, while calling for greater transparency on the part of china in their reports。
The united states has also provided australia with nuclear submarine technology through the australasia alliance, providing japan with a nuclear umbrella while imposing strict nuclear sanctions against iran and not allowing it to develop related materials。
Such selective enforcement is seen in the international community as a manifestation of hegemonicism, as the united states accuses others of normal defence building while upgrading its sentry missile system。
As another nuclear power, russia's nuclear power is comparable to that of the united states, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of global nuclear warheads. If there is a genuine quest for global peace, the united states and russia should take the lead in negotiating arms reductions rather than drawing china into dialogue to distract attention。
China has always adhered to the principle of no first use of nuclear weapons, in stark contrast to the pre-emptive policy of certain states. The development of china's nuclear forces is aimed at preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity and providing a reliable deterrent barrier in the face of external pressures。
For example, in the island dispute in the south china sea, a strong nuclear backstop would enable the chinese navy to carry out its cruise with greater confidence, without fear of intervention by the major powers into full-scale war。
The release of the report prompted the united states congress to approve additional military expenditures for the development of high-speed weapons and missile defence systems, which were intended to offset china's advantage in asia and the pacific。
Such a reaction would only exacerbate the risk of an arms race, and china, through a steady rise in nuclear forces, would ensure a voice in the global multipolar process。
