In 2020, there were 280 million civilian automobiles nationwide, of which 240 million were automobiles, an increase of 1. 75 million over 2019。
It is believed that most of the after-car industry industry sees these data, and is accustomed to the subdivisions in which it operates. For example, what is likely to be the annual tyre consumption of peers in the tyre industry? How much is used for lubricant
What the writer is trying to say today is another subdivision of the automobile industry — an analysis of the status and prospects of the automatic gearbox maintenance industry, and why is capital uncoded
01. Total and current market size of automatic transformers
Based on a summary of network data, the total number of vehicles in china carrying automatic transformers was 60 per cent in 2020, measured by the current holdings of 280 million vehicles, with 160 million vehicles in china。
From this data, our national automatic transformer box loads have exceeded europe. But there is still a long distance to north america。
As a matter of common sense, china’s market capacity and prospects for development are high, and the automatic gearbox industry and market prospects should be good, but in the opposite view, the reality is。
We look at the following:
First, core technology: the gap with the developed countries of the west in the development of new technologies for the use of automatic gearbox products in automobiles is clear because of our late start in the manufacture of automatic gearboxes. Although many autonomous brands have invested much human and material resources over the years, the technical aspects of the products of automatic transformer boxes and product quality stability are still far from western developed countries。
Second, in the context of the mainframe: it is largely monopolized and controlled by the powers of the traditional auto-manufacturing powers, especially in the field of high-band automatic transmission vans (more than 6 speeds), japanese shin, german zf and gatco, which belongs to japanese-made cars, as well as popular, generic self-products。
Thirdly, the supply of spare parts: the supply of spare parts for domestic automatic speedboxes, like the second point, is monopolized and controlled by foreign brands and overseas suppliers。
02. Characteristics and patterns of the market after the sale of automatic transformers
The domestic automatic speedbox industry started in 1994 and originated in the city of pearlhead. In the early stages, the industry originated from a british enterprise, atp。
To date, many of the older avc maintenance practitioners, as well as the founders or members of the core teams of some of the country's major avc maintenance firms, have also grown and come from this enterprise。
In terms of geographical distribution, the country's avc maintenance and spare parts supply enterprises are concentrated in the cities of guangzhou and shanghai. While chengdu and beijing are of some size, there is a gap with the cities in terms of start-up time, industry concentration and maturity。
For the time being, guangzhou has been at the forefront, even in asia, in terms of maintenance and supply of parts and components for automatic transformer containers, as well as in the manufacture of automatic transformer boxes。
There is a well-known market for chenda's carbreaking equipment, which also played a significant role in the supply of automatic speeding vans before being removed。
There are also, for example, the sifu alliance, the sun, etc., and the country's leading automatic gearbox re-manufacturing enterprises like the flower world。
In terms of industry concentration, the status of these two cities is temporarily irreplaceable. However, the over-centralized nature of the industry has also led to uneven growth in the automatic transmission box maintenance industry throughout china, constraining its accelerated development and diffusion throughout the country。
In the post-sale mode, domestic automatic transformer maintenance and services are currently provided mainly through logistics, with initial offers first made by the automatic transformer maintenance plant line; after confirmation by both parties, the broken gearbox will be removed by the delivery party, which will then be picked up through the logistics shipment or repair party; after repair, the repair will be sent back to the transporter for installation and then finally delivered to the owner。
This approach is relatively less problematic in second-line cities or cities with strong logistics transport capacity. However, the problem is greater when it comes to more remote areas or less economically disadvantaged areas。
Because it is common for the back-to-back transportation costs to increase when retrofitting occurs, not to say that there is a peeling between the repair plant and the automatic transformer workshop。
As a result, the current maintenance and service model of the automatic transformer should be urgently changed. Currently, a new maintenance and service model, the automatic switchbox replacement model, has emerged, although it is not yet universal. To my knowledge, guangzhou has adopted this model globally, as well as in zeng fumi, shanghai。
However, in the view of the author, the current model of maintenance and services for automatic transformers in china has not yet found the best solution。
03 why is capital forgotten
The post-car market is not a capital-friendly industry in addition to the squirming industry, and the non-automatic gearbox maintenance industry is not. Why
In the view of authors, the reason is actually simple。
First, there are deep technical barriers to the industry, including from the supply of spare parts, maintenance, after-sales services, etc. Deeper technical barriers also bode well for rapid replication in the industry。
Second, low frequency, suddenness and one of the attributes of the industry. This also bodes well for the difficulty of standardizing it and establishing fixed patterns. In particular, the uncontrollability of automatic gearbox maintenance projects is more evident than conventional maintenance projects。
These two reasons are sufficient to deter many capital. Some irregularities in the industry, however, have led to low capital attention to the industry。
In addition, the industry, which requires higher qualifications and a relatively longer training cycle, does not have sufficient talent reserves and a sound talent development system to support it, making it difficult for it to spread across the country。
Of course, opportunities often arise behind the problem. In terms of current market and industry for the maintenance of automatic transformer containers, there is a greater prospect for development than in other areas of post-carriage, such as lubricants, tyres and beauty washing。
Deep technical barriers to industry also mean high entry thresholds and greater profitability of enterprises。
To date, the national automatic speedbox maintenance chain has not emerged and the market remains a blue sea。
3. The number of vehicles equipped with automatic transformers is increasing, and as the share of medium- and high-end vehicles increases, the market capacity is greater, especially when multiple stages of automatic transformers become more widely available (8/9/10)。
4. Unhigh frequency, sudden and high technical barriers make it difficult for internet enterprises to erode the industry in a short period of time, and the price system is relatively stable and less susceptible to pollution。
In the judgement of the author, one or two unicorn enterprises will emerge within the next three to five years in the area of automatic transmission box maintenance and services。
