Core point: most. The new year’s contraction in supply is expected to support cotton at the bottom, and short-term increases in crude oil have led to higher fibre prices, short-term increases in the value of cotton textiles and some support for cotton demand. If the order is issued as scheduled, the power of the vault is expected to push zheng yu to the height of the pre-period; if the gold is not within expectations, there is a risk that the shock will fall back, supporting attention to the 15,000 junctions. On 31 march, the united states department of agriculture released a survey of intended areas for cotton planting, which indicated that the intended areas were not decreasing or increasing, a realistic space and a risk point for future changes in the area actually planted. In addition, in april, the cotton planting period in xinjiang was about to enter. Despite the fall in seed cotton purchase prices last year, most cotton farmers maintained strong cotton-planting intentions, and there was a clear disagreement over the actual implementation of the reduction in cotton cultivation in xinjiang. According to the latest information, the achievement of the target of 36 million acres of cotton cultivation in xinjiang would be phased, so that the new year might not be marked by a fall in the area under fire, and the market would be concerned about how much of the fall in cotton cultivation in xinjiang in 2026/27 went hand in hand with the weather。
Global cotton supply and demand: neutral. On 31 march, the united states department of agriculture released a new year of intended american cotton cultivation that exceeded market expectations。
China's cotton commercial stocks: most. Domestic commercial stocks continue to decline, with businesses purchasing more on demand and some warehouses slowing down。
Port stocks: neutral。
Downstream industrial chain: neutral. Downstream orders are limited, and silver 4 is average。
Import cotton differential: neutral. Recently, the cotton rebounded, zheng returned, and the price gap between the inside and the outside was reduced。
Review of the situation
In january 2026, zheng tong displayed a high-altitude posture with an overall operating zone of between 1500 and 14300 yuan/t, while the american cotton showed a continuous downward trend and an unprecedented increase in the price differential between internal and external cotton。
After the spring festival of february 2026, zheng kam experienced a luminous outlay of the high-level shock platform, with the main contract touching a maximum of $15665/tt, but there was subsequent profit-making departures from both internal and external cotton prices, but zheng did not quickly reverse them。
In march 2026, zheng yuong displayed the core dynamic of pre- and post-precipitous, multi-basking, polar shock, with approximately 15,000-15765/tons of the main contract operating area during the month, and a “strong expectations, weak realities” game pattern, with supply tightening expectations forming a multi-space saw with lower profit pressures and import increases。
Ii. Analysis of global cotton supply and demand patterns
2. 1 multiplication of cotton export sales
The demand for international buyers has warmed, and net sales of american cotton exports have risen to 488,000 tons, more than onefold more than in the previous week. According to the united states department of agriculture export sales report released on thursday, 26 march, the current united states market saw a net increase of 371,500 packages in annual cotton export sales, significantly above the previous week's level and 94 per cent above the average of the previous four weeks. Of this, there was a net increase of 11. 12 million tons in export sales to mainland china. The net increase in cotton export sales in the united states over the next year is 117. 300. That week, united states cotton exports loaded 356,700 bags, an 11 per cent decrease from the previous week and an 8 per cent increase from the average of the previous four weeks。
2. 2 increase in net cotton silos
According to the latest weekly warehouse reports published by the ctc, as of the week of 24 march, there were 22,267 net multiple positions held by hedge funds and large speculators, an increase of 6042 over the previous week. The number of multiple-head holdouts was 12,118, 8327 fewer than the previous week and 97,851 fewer than the previous week。
2. 3 the intention of the united states to plant cotton exceeds market expectations
The united states estimated the area under cotton cultivation at 9. 64 million acres in 2026 and the actual area under cultivation at 9. 283,000 acres in 2025; the 2026 cropping intent report, in which the area under land cotton cultivation was expected to be 9. 51 million acres, an increase of 4 per cent over the ring; of which the area under horse cotton cultivation was expected to be 130,000 acres, a decrease of 8. 1 per cent over the ring; and the united states-wide cotton cultivation was expected to be 9. 64 million acres, an increase of 3. 9 per cent over the ring. In contrast, the new year, announced by ncc in february 2026, saw a decrease of about 3 per cent in the area under american cotton。
It is now known that only planting is intended, and the area of cultivation is confirmed by the report on the area under cultivation in june; final production remains to be tracked by weather and prices, and final cultivation, abandonment rates and single production, in combination, determines final production. Moreover, more volatile rates of cotton abandonment tend to play a key role in production。
Analysis of domestic cotton supply and demand patterns
3. 1 reduction in port stocks of cotton deliveries
After spring, chinese buyers slowed down their contracts for brazilian cotton, and in recent days there has been a decrease in the arrival of cotton, and the number of american cotton banks is below forecast. According to mysteel, as at 2 april, there was a decrease of 1. 12 per cent in the weekly stock of the main port importing cotton, with a total stock of 575. 5 million tons. Of these, 494,000 tons were imported from qingdao, jinan port and surrounding warehouses in the shandong region, an increase of 11. 76 per cent over the same period, about 485 million tons were imported from the zhang jia port and surrounding warehouses in jiangsu region, and about 330,000 tons were imported from other ports。
3. 2 limited spin-off orders and slower downstream procurement
In recent days, a small number of purchases have been made by downstream knitting enterprises, the pace of procurement has slowed, with a small increase in the stock of yarns, 15 to 22 days in the interior and 33 to 38 days in the frontier. According to the mysteel agricultural product data monitoring, as at 2 april, the stock of yarns in major areas was 31. 8 days, an increase of 1. 27 per cent per week。
With limited follow-up on new singles, small downswings in the interior, stable in the interior, and more than 90 per cent within the borders, according to mysteel data on agricultural products, the main area had a load of 78. 3 per cent, down 0. 25 per cent from last week。
3. 3 continued decline in commercial stocks of cotton
Domestic commercial stocks continued to decline, with businesses purchasing more on demand and some warehouses moving at a slower pace; imports of cotton increased steadily, with high internal and external price differentials supporting their arrival. According to mysteel research, as at 27 march 2026, the total commercial stock of cotton stood at 4. 8938 million tons, or 2. 90 per cent less than last week's ring. Of this amount, 3,671 million tons of cotton is available in xinjiang, a decrease of 1514,000 tons, or 3. 96 per cent, in the roundabout ratio. The commercial cotton in the interior region increased by 0. 48 million tons to 0. 76 per cent。
Iv. Post-market outlook
New-year contractions are expected to support cotton at the bottom, with short-term increases in crude oil leading to higher fibre prices, short-term increases in the value of cotton textiles and some support for cotton demand. If the order is issued as scheduled, the power of the vault is expected to push zheng yu to the height of the pre-period; if the gold is not within expectations, there is a risk that the shock will fall back, supporting attention to the 15,000 junctions. On 31 march, the united states department of agriculture released a survey of intended areas for cotton planting, which indicated that the intended areas were not decreasing or increasing, a realistic space and a risk point for future changes in the area actually planted. In addition, in april, the cotton planting period in xinjiang was about to enter. Despite the fall in seed cotton purchase prices last year, most cotton farmers maintained strong cotton-planting intentions, and there was a clear disagreement over the actual implementation of the reduction in cotton cultivation in xinjiang. According to the latest information, the achievement of the target of 36 million acres of cotton cultivation in xinjiang would be phased, so that the new year might not be marked by a fall in the area under fire, and the market would be concerned about how much of the fall in cotton cultivation in xinjiang in 2026/27 went hand in hand with the weather。
