Yesterday, this newspaper's 14th july news service (journalist tao xiaoai correspondent natsumi zhang zhiqiang) was informed by journalists from the economic situation analysis of the first half of changsha city that in january-june, changsha city averaged $4895 for residential goods in the city's five districts, an increase of 19. 3 per cent over the same period。
The changsha real estate market continues to be healthy and smooth. In the first half of this year, investments in changsha real estate amounted to $31. 2 billion, a net increase of $9. 8 billion, or 45 per cent, over the same period last year. This represents an increase of 115. 6 per cent over the same period, with an increase of 1. 91 million square metres in the area under construction and an increase of 24 per cent over the same period in the area under construction and an increase of 8. 8883 million square metres in the area under sale。
Head-to-door market game
— interpretation of the latest data on the real estate market
Xinhua news agency reporter chan fong yip, lee shu, liu yuanhu
For the first time in 17 months, the price of housing has fallen, the turnover has gradually moved out of the “wall floor” and the investment in real estate development has continued to grow more rapidly ... The data on the real estate market from january to june of this year, published recently by the national statistics office, provide a visual indication of the first half of the first half of the year. However, the economic recovery has been more difficult than expected, and the “difficulties” of macroeconomic regulation have increased in the second half of the year. In this situation, how can city regulation be “comfort-driven”?
The city's “biannual”:
The regulatory effect is emerging
There are indications that this rotation control has been pinned on a number of speculators and that the city of the heights is showing signs of “heating back”. The latest data from the national statistical office indicate that regulatory effects are initially evident。
• the rapid rise in housing prices was initially contained. In june, the price of sale of houses in 70 cities and cities across the country decreased by 1 percentage point compared to may, and the ring rate fell by 0. 1 per cent. In april, only three or a half of the 70 cities experienced a slight decline in their housing prices, which now affects 28 cities, while beijing, shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou and guangzhou all saw their prices fall。
—the turnover ranges from low to the bottom of the valley. In march, there were 8. 206 million square metres of national merchandise house sales; by may, it had fallen to 68 million square metres. By june, a number of visitors had entered the city, and the sale of commercial houses in the country had recovered to 92 million square metres, the highest level in the first half of the year。
— investment in development remains “high”. Despite stringent regulatory policies, new construction of houses in the country reached 482 million square metres in april-june, and development investments reached 131. 5 million yuan, much more than the previous three months. The industry's fear that “real estate investment will fall sharply” has not materialized。
• there was a marked tightening of development loans and individual loans. In the first half of the year, domestic loans from real estate enterprises fell from 46. 1 per cent at the beginning of the year to 34. 5 per cent in the first half of the year; in the first four months, the cumulative monthly increase was over 100 per cent, but by june it had fallen to 60. 4 per cent。
Deep game:
Five symptoms cannot be ignored
“the real estate market in china is like a fever-suffering patient whose treatment has been certified by the attending physician and whose condition has been temporarily alleviated, but in addition to root causes, continuous treatment is required, the effects of which remain to be seen.” according to the central party researcher, “there are symptoms that the city is currently in a deep game between buyers and sellers and market interests and that regulation must not be relaxed”
Local area buildings are “high fevers”. In june, 49 of the 70 major and medium-sized cities experienced or sustained price increases for new dwellings, including 2-3-line cities, and 39 cities experienced price increases for second-hand homes。
High house prices are still “cooled”. For example, from january to may this year, the average price for residential housing sales increased to $34620 per square metre on the beijing four ring road and more than $17,000 per square metre off the six ring road, to $11,748. The base rate for some of the decompositions was also high in mid-march and there was a “false fall”。
Credits are silently “water”. On 13 january, journalists were informed by a housing loan agency in shanghai that, at present, the “green light” has been selectively placed on housing loans in the gold sector by branches and branches of the institution: the second flat is also entitled to a first-rate discount of 30 per cent and interest rate discounts, as long as there is no loan from the client's first flat; the third set of mortgages has not been implemented by individual banks from the outset. Fifteen per cent of the list processed by the agency in june was part of this “relax two-room loan”, most of which was for investors。
Investment transfers rather than exits. At present, some of the 2nd and 3rd-line cities are experiencing an increase in the temperature of the concept and an increase in the number of investment-based home purchases, showing a rise in prices. According to the data, the current rate of investment in shen-yang is close to 30 per cent, compared to about 10 per cent a year ago。
There was a wave of anti-market land. Contrary to some market rumours, the land market did not completely stagnate in the first half of the year with the city's regulation and, despite short-term fluctuations and shrinking land, a number of housing companies have recently accelerated their “collateral attacks”. The data show a 35. 6 per cent increase in the area of land acquisition completed by the national real estate development enterprise in the first half of the year, an increase of 84. 0 per cent in the cost of land acquisition over the same period, and a significant increase in the area and cost of land acquisition by the national real estate development enterprise following the april control cycle。
The most complex years:
How does the dilemma city operate
The authorities stressed that the severity of the impact of the international financial crisis and economic recovery had exceeded expectations, and that the “difficulties” facing macroeconomic regulation had increased. The long-standing structural problems must be balanced with the pressing issues at hand, which must be addressed in the context of smooth and rapid economic development。
Liu hongyu, director of the institute of real estate of the university of qinghua, said: “china's housing market is going through a considerable period of adjustment to absorb the price bubbles created in previous years and to return to a level that is essentially consistent with the economic fundamentals and the ability of households to pay. This adjustment period may be extended if the macroeconomics enter a period of slow growth.”
Despite the difficult path of rational return, preventing the rise and fall of the city has always been the consensus of all sides. According to the experts: “the sharp rise and fall in housing prices is a great harm to consumers, industry, banks and governments.”
In the view of many experts, an appropriate fall in housing prices is normal for a small number of high-cost areas. The speed at which the market is moving towards a rational return depends largely on overall macroeconomic trends. The impact of a wide range of powerful stakeholder groups, including local governments, banks, developers and others, cannot be underestimated as a result of the process of urban regulation of buildings over the years. The issue of high housing prices is not just a matter of real estate, but of hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial and personal loans, and scores of related industries, with thousands of households. According to the expert, city regulation cannot expect to be successful in its work, but only “progressive therapy”. According to xinhua news, beijing, july 14
