TrumpA complete breach? Another delay in the ultimatum
According to news reports, trump, in an interview on 5 april, claimed that the united states was currently in deep contact with iranNegotiationsIf iran fails to open the strait of hormuz by 8 p. M. Eastern united states time on 7 april, the united states will target its power plant。
Trump gave an ultimatum
On the surface, this is a tough threat. In practice, however, this has been the second time that tripp has postponed this deadline。
For the first time, on 21 march, trump issued an ultimatum of 48 hours demanding that iran open the strait of hormuz, or else it would destroy iran's “various power plants”。
As a result, iran did not pay any attention to trump, not only by declaring that it would not negotiate with the united states, but also by formally completing the legal process during this period and beginning to collect taxes on the strait of hormuz。
How dare america blow up? Trump did not dare, and on 26 march trump delayed the destruction of iran's energy facilities for 10 days until 8 p. M. United states eastern time on 6 april。
On 4 april, trump issued another 48-hour ultimatum, and on 5 april, another day later, the deadline was postponed until 8 p. M. On 7 april。
Trump's ultimatum has been postponed
In one word, the deadline for the 48-hour ultimatum of trump is now around 8 a. M. Beijing time。
This repeated delay was summed up by wall street as "taco" in english as "trump always dickens out", translated as "trump always retreated." it was first used to describe trump's ambivalence in trade policy, but now it's appliedMilitaryThreat on。
I have to say, wall street's financial elites are really good at summing up. So the question is: why is trump so repetitive? What is he afraid of? In fact, this is not just american pressure, but pressure on trump in the middle east as a whole and within the united states。
Trump's ultimatum and the iranian side's response is hard, and if you blow up my power plant, i will blow up your allies。
The spokesman for the iranian ministry of foreign affairs was even more direct, stating that the trump threat was "incitement to war crimes and crimes against humanity". The iranian side has made it clear that if the united states bombards iran's civilian infrastructure, iran will impose a "reciprocal strike" on the infrastructure of the united states and its allies. This includes power plants, desalination plants and energy facilities in neighbouring countries。
That's not a word. In the early hours of 19 march, the islamic revolutionary guard corps (irgc) launched an aggressive attack on five oil and gas installations in saudi arabia, the united arab emirates and qatar, all of which are directly related to united states interests。
In addition, kuwait's ministry of oil headquarters and various petrochemical facilities were hit and set on fire by drones, and some desalination and power generation units were stopped; storage facilities of bahrain national energy company were attacked by drones
After intercepting the iranian attack, a petrochemical plant in abu dhabi in the united arab emirates was forced to suspend operations as a result of fires caused by the fall of debris。
To be honest, iran's strategy is, "if i don't live, no one will live."
This capability does exist on the part of iran, which possesses the largest and richest missile arsenal in the middle east region, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges ranging from hundreds of kilometres to as far as 2,000 kilometres。
This means that all united states bases in the middle east, as well as key installations of united states allies such as saudi arabia, the united arab emirates and israel, are within iran's reach。
Iran still has a huge missile stockpile
And while the united states has been carrying out heavy bombardments against iran for more than a month, according to united states data, these bombings have caused iran to lose only one third of its missile launchers, and iran still has a very powerful capability to destroy, at least, power plants and desalination plants throughout the middle east。
So now that the middle east’s tudor countries are making crazy calls to trump, it is also simple to say that the countries of the middle east do not want the us’s use of force against iran to lead to a fire in the city’s gates。
Trump's."PoliticalCalculator: the pressure of the midterm election
To a large extent, trump has been influenced by domestic political pressure, except for the pleas of the middle east troupe and the princes。
According to recent polls in the united states, trump's support on economic issues has fallen to 31 per cent, a new low in office. Votes from reuters and the leipso group also show that the trump support rate fell from 40 to 36 per cent, the lowest since returning to the white house。
Trump has reached a new low
Why? The main reason for this decline is the rise in oil prices in the united states。
Even more painful is the rise in anti-war sentiment in the united states. On 28 march, protests broke out in 50 states of the united states, with more than 3,200 protests spreading simultaneously, with 9 million people expected to participate。
This number is larger than last october's second wave of "no king" campaigns, where protesters shouted "no king" and expressed their dissatisfaction with the trump policy。
Less than seven months before the mid-2026 elections, the republican alert has been fully sounded. If trump is determined to wage an all-out war against iran, it may not only push up oil prices and increase inflation, but may also plunge more americans into war. This is certainly a political gamble for trump, who relies on the slogan "make america great again."。
It is noteworthy that the threats made by trump were accompanied by urgent consultations between the united states and iraq through indirect channels。
Now, the united states, iran and regional mediators (including pakistan, egypt and turkey) are urgently negotiating two-stage agreements through indirect channels。
The first was a 45-day interim ceasefire, during which negotiations were held on a permanent end to the war; the second was a permanent peace agreement. The core issues include the full opening of the strait of hormuz and the disposal of iran's heu stockpiles。
According to the source, special envoy witkov and his son-in-law kushner are conducting intensive negotiations with the iranian side. The iranian side has publicly rejected each other's 15-point request, but negotiations are still ongoing。
The conditions on the iranian side are also clear: the passage of the strait of hormuz will not be fully restored unless war damage is compensated. The communication officer of the office of the president of iran stated that compensation would have to be paid out of the revenue from the tolls on the channel。
This is a "precision strike" strategy, and iran has told the world that iran does not completely block the strait, but let ships from certain countries pass, while putting pressure on the united states and its core allies。
According to vessel traffic data, 15 vessels have passed through the strait only after obtaining iranian permission in the last 24 hours. This strategy of "selective release" can sustain iran's relations with friendly countries and keep pressure on the united states。
At present, ships from friendly countries such as china, russia, pakistan, iraq, india and bangladesh have safely passed through the strait of hormuz。
So, is it america or not
My judgement is that trump's probability will continue to be "delayed", to find excuses to delay military action and to negotiate a window for a diplomatic solution. And wall street's summary of trump's foreign policy, taco, will probably be the best footnote to this meibo game。
China's position and response
In this meibo game, china's position is very clear. In a telephone conversation with russian foreign minister lavrov on 5 april, the chinese side stated that it has always advocated a political solution to international and regional hotspot issues through dialogue. It is essential to resolve the issue of navigation in the strait of hormuz that the ceasefire ceases as soon as possible。
The chinese and russian foreign ministers spoke
The chinese embassy in saudi arabia has also issued a security alert requesting citizens of saudi arabia to pay close attention to the security situation and to reduce their absence from sensitive areas. This pragmatic diplomatic approach reflects the responsibility of the responsible powers of china。
At 8 a. M. Beijing time on 8 april, the latest "red line" from trump is coming。
So, the result of the ultimatum is that the united states blew iran back to the stone age, or did it find a new excuse to delay? The day after tomorrow, the answer will come。
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