In the second half of the year, housing prices will not rise or fall, and the stock market will be reduced to a long-term bull market, with the imposition of property taxes in shenzhen having little impact on ordinary citizens. Yesterday morning, a well-known financial and economic commentator, yeh honolulu, served as a guest key to the nandu public forum, which, after analysing the basic economic trends of the second half of the year, gave shenzhen citizens a “direction” on issues of focus such as the opening of the building, stock market and property taxes。
In the first half of this year, after a severe financial storm, housing prices rose and the stock market rose. Many people in shenzhen said that the current economic situation was confusing and did not know what “basket” the remaining money in their pockets should be. Yesterday's forum was full of seats, and ye hsin's speech received a round of applause。
Property taxes: little impact on ordinary people
In recent days, the introduction of property taxes into the schedule of work for the three-year comprehensive package of reforms in shenzhen city (2009-2011) has given rise to concern that property taxes should not be collected, when they should be collected, and what the threshold and criteria for their collection have given rise to many speculations and controversy。
In response, yehon stated that it is probable that property tax will be imposed, that many urban property taxes have been raised for many years, and that the system of accounts is very complete, “it has been argued that the issue of legality is not resolved, that property taxes will not be imposed, and that it is naive to hold such an idea.” yehon indicated, but it is questionable how to resolve the issue of property rights。
The public is concerned that the imposition of property taxes will affect them. Ye hin indicates that the threshold for the collection of property taxes is different and the impact will be different, with little impact on the population in general, in the case of investment housing or luxury homes. She predicted that when the property tax was introduced, the threshold would be higher, for example for commercial property, luxury houses or more than two housing units owned by individuals。
House price: reorganization in the second half of the year
In the first half of the year, the prices of housing in the cities of shenzhen and shanghai rose at a rate even higher than in 2007. Will housing prices continue to rise in the second half of the year and in the coming years? In response, ye hin's predictions are that it will not go up or fall down, “real estate will rise this year in a straight line, then it will be cleaned up, and then it will be restored in the second half”
She explained that, in the first half of the year, the entire depressed demand for real estate markets was released, and that the benefits would not be repeated in the second half of the year, and investment demand would decline slightly, so that housing prices would no longer be pushed up by demand. Ye hin stated that the turnover in the front-line cities had declined in july, which confirmed her view。
At the macro-policy level, the bubbles in the housing market will not suddenly burst, because monetary policy and inflation are expected to remain stable, while local government support in its own interest will continue, as in the past, and these factors will keep the real estate market growing, and even if mortgages are fine-tuned, they will not shake the general picture。
Stock market: a long-term bull market in the future
In the first half of this year, the index rebounded from the bottom of the valley to 3400 points, and last week there were four more negatives, and the collapse of the stock market caused a number of nervous activity. For the capital market, which is the economic development thermometer for the next two to three years, the trend is read out: “the first half of the year is a straight rise, it is now a high-level arrangement, and then there must be a downward adjustment in preparation for the next round of the rise.”
Ye hin stated that investors would not worry that if the stock market fell, there would be a long-term bull market in the future. In market terms, if this fall in stock markets is a good opportunity for investors. For personal investment, yeh jun said, “i will invest in several areas, including gold, stock markets, and i will not buy much.” she explained that it was certain that, without internationalization of the renminbi and with expectations of appreciation, asset prices would rise and the government could not contain them。
- expert opinion
The greatest threat to the future economy
“capital and credit is creating a new round of overcapacity”
In her speech, yeshi also shared with the public her concerns about the future chinese economy, which she believed was creating a new round of overcapacity, which was the greatest threat to the future chinese economy. Taking the example of hebei steel, she argued that “this is an inefficient state-owned enterprise that has received so much money from banks”. Capital markets had not helped china to restructure its economy, and capital and credit were all creating a new round of overcapacity。
In addition, yehoo also noted that in the case of overcapacity and economic downturns, m&as, restructuring, m&a loans from banks, and m&as were the best options. However, enterprises are an important source of local finance, and under administrative and financial pressure, overcapacity in m & as is difficult to resolve。
“i look down on china’s real economy. China’s economy must pass two critical points: the first is a complete marketization that addresses the problem of overcapacity; the second is the winning of the currency war and the internationalization of the renminbi. It's hard to tell what the future is going to look like, because neither of these aspects has happened.”
The nandu public forum is held on the third floor of shenzhen science library at 10 a. M. Each week, except for public holidays, which are free of charge and welcome to the event. (reporter feng hsu, intern, sun zheng)
