Analysis of chicken price volatility in anyang city: market trends, farm costs and consumption demand read
I. Status of chicken prices in anyang and market profile
The market for chickens in the city of anyang is characterized by a marked period of volatility, with the average price of live chickens fluctuated between three and five yuan/chock according to the latest monitoring data of the city of anyang agricultural and rural directorate, while the price of sea-dressed chickens (18-22 days) remained stable at 8 to 10 yuan/kg, while the price of special types such as hens exceeded 15 yuan/kg. This price segmentation stems mainly from three key factors: the imbalance in supply and demand during the high season of winter consumption, the sharp rise in farm costs and changes in the channel of electric power。
(1) characteristics of regional price gradients
The main urban area of anyang has a marked price gap with the surrounding districts, where the average price of live chickens is 0. 8-1. 2 yuan/kg higher than the average price in the county, and in the large farming counties such as the soup and pussy. This gradient is largely influenced by logistics costs (the urban distribution radius of 50 km) and consumption capacity (the disposable income of the urban population is 23 per cent higher than that of the county area)。
(2) price breakdown of varieties
The rooster market in anyang has a two-to-two-to-one pattern:
- high-end species: angyang mouth chicken (geography products) at a price of 18 to 22 yuan per pound
- specific types: the premium of 15 to 20 per cent for pharmacological co-sourced chickens (additions, yellow cucumbers, etc.)
- normal white feather chicken: price stable at $6-7 per pound
- chicken *: winter price exceeded $15 per pound, 40 per cent higher than summer
Ii. Main factors influencing price volatility
(1) structural rise in farming costs
The cost of chicken farming in anyang has increased by 28. 6 per cent over the same period
- 58 per cent of the cost of feed (19. 3 per cent increase in maize + soybean prices)
- 35 per cent increase in expenditure for vaccination (enhanced avian influenza control)
- a 22 per cent increase in labour costs (average monthly wage of the rural labour force is $4,200)
- 18 per cent increase in depreciation of equipment (from 12 per cent to 37 per cent increase in the prevalence of automated farming equipment)
(2) trends in consumer demand
According to the anyang city bureau of statistics, poultry consumption is characterized by two litres and two drops:
- increased health consumption: orders for drug-based chickens increased by 67 per cent each year
- increase in annual consumption of goods: 210 per cent increase in rooster sales in the 15 days prior to spring
- declining consumption of common white feathers: market share replaced by prefabricated vegetables (12 per cent decrease)
- decline in export demand: 28 per cent decrease in export volumes (affected by international logistics costs)
(3) policy regulation and market intervention
Anyang has three key policies:
1. Cultivation allowance: 15 yuan per allowance for small farms (500 plants)
2. Environmental remediation: closing of 87 small farms (average daily discharges exceeding standard)
3. Branding*: the number of companies certifying the geographical markers of "anyang rooster" increased to 23
Industrial chain cost accounting model
According to research by the anyang academy of agricultural sciences, the cost composition of standardized farms (in the case of 500 sizes):
Project amount ($/only)
| - - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Feeding 68 58. 3%
Vaccination
| manual 8 | 6. 9 % |
Depreciation of equipment
Management costs 5 4. 3%
Other 3 2. 6%
** total cost** ** ** 107** ** ** ** ** 100% ** ** **
Market projections and investment recommendations
(1) price projections (q1-q4)
- january-february: with spring season consumption, the price of chicken in a suit is expected to exceed $12 per pound
- march-may: the cost of feed is down, the price is down to $9-11 per pound
- june-august: high temperature affected the column with hens at a price of 18 yuan per pound
- september-december: consumption season plus mid-autumn national day with the average price of live chickens rising to 10-12 yuan per pound
(2) analysis of investment opportunities
- recommended direction: deep processing (prefabricated soup packs, ready-to-eat products)
- risk avoidance: be alert to possible avian flu
- policy dividend: focus on "rural revitalization" special loans (at interest rates as low as 3. 2 per cent per annum)
(3) path to upgrading farming technology
1. Smart transformation: installation of environmental monitoring systems (temperature, humidity, ammonia concentration)
3. Disease prevention and control: establishment of a "biosafety level 3" system (death rate reduced from 8% to 3%)
V. Analysis of possible cases
(1) slide county zhang agricultural cooperative model
- size: 1,200 standardized farms
- technology: applications networking system (68 indicators for real-time monitoring)
- effectiveness: increase to 92 per cent and decrease in cost by 21 per cent
- proceeds: net profit of $870,000 (three times higher than traditional* farming)
(2) the marketing case of an electrician in yindu district
- platform: many more than live to vibrate
- strategy: make a set of "among-o-o-o-o-o"
- result: one-month sales exceeded $3 million, with a repurchase rate of 35 per cent
Future development planning
In accordance with the plan for the development of livestock in anyang city (-), priority is given to:
1. Construction of million standardized farming bases (target)
2. Development of 10 deep-processed pharmaceutical chicken products
3. Establishment of a cold chain logistics system covering the north (depletion rate from 15% to 5%)
4. Development of 3 publicly traded agricultural enterprises
