Analysis of trends in second-hand house prices in china: trends in house prices and investment proposals in 30 cities
I. General performance characteristics of the national used house market (data as of q3)
According to the latest data from the national statistical office, the total number of second-hand houses sold nationwide in the first half of the year was 2. 87 million, an increase of 5. 3 per cent over the previous year. Of these, the core cities (upper north-high and deep) had an average listing price of $58,000/m2, an increase of 2. 1 per cent compared to the beginning of the year, but a decrease of 0. 8 per cent. It is a matter of concern that the market for second-hand homes is characterized by a pattern of "cold-fired double-drive": a reduction in the production cycle for improved housing in priority 20 cities to 35 days, while the demobilization cycle for ordinary homes in some three or four cities is still 18 months。
Ii. Deep-seated logic of increased urban polarization
(i) front-line cities: re-engineered value under untied policies
The cities of beijing, shanghai and other cities, through policy combinations such as home recognition and loans, have promoted the increase in the price of second-hand houses. In beijing, for example, the q2 school district housing premium exceeded 15 per cent, while non-core suburban areas experienced a return of 8 per cent. It is a matter of concern that the ministry's pilot "custodial transfer" policy has reduced transaction costs by 2-3 percentage points, leading to the release of replacement demand。
(ii) new front-line cities: population iris effects are visible
The market of second-hand houses in new cities like chengdu and chongqing is characterized by "stable price increases". The average second-hand house price in chengdu is $28,000/m2, an increase of 4. 5 per cent over the same period, but the rental rate of return has stabilized at 2. 8 per cent, indicating greater resistance. It is a matter of concern that these cities have succeeded in attracting 236,000 outsiders through policies such as "brain buying subsidies" and in generating sustained demand support。
(iii) three and four cities: stock pressure continues to highlight
According to kerry data, the q3 national top 50 3rd line urban stock demining cycle was 28 months longer than 4 months. Typically, the average price of second-hand houses, such as cranes, remained at $3,500/m2, but the vacancy rate was as high as 38 per cent. However, through the "old-for-new" policy, some municipalities have promoted retrofitting projects in old and old neighbourhoods to boost the value of second-hand houses in their surroundings, such as the 12 per cent increase in the price of houses in a small area of hunanyong county。
Core variables affecting housing prices
(i) marginal effects of policy regulation
The real estate policy is characterized by the "in-town policy" and has been expanded to 12 cities with limited access to key cities. Central bank data, however, show that the proportion of new housing loans by residents has stabilized at 65 per cent, indicating a time lag in the transmission of policy results. It is a matter of concern that the construction of guaranteed rental housing has accelerated, reducing rent increases in some urban rental markets to 3. 2 per cent。
(ii) channelling mechanisms for economic cycles
In the macro-level context of 4. 5 per cent GDP growth in the first half of the year, the second-hand housing market has seen a "structural recovery". In terms of household leverage, the debt income ratio of households in key urban areas fell to 62. 3 per cent, down by 9 percentage points from peaks, indicating a reduction in debt service pressures. However, youth unemployment remains high (14. 9 per cent between the ages of 16 and 24) and may discourage immediate release。
(iii) dynamic balance between supply and demand
According to data from the shell institute, 120 million sets of second-hand rooms are registered nationwide, a record high. However, the volume of transactions increased by only 1. 8 per cent over the same period, indicating that the market was entering the stock game phase. Typically, as in shenzhen, "replacement improvements" in the q2 second-hand room deal are 58 per cent higher than just needed for the first time。
Iv. Comparison of housing price trends in key cities (january-september)
| urban average price (millions of dollars/m2)
| - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Beijing 6. 2 + 3. 2 % |-0. 5 % | policy on untiement
Shanghai 6. 8 + 2. 1% | - 0. 8% | unrestricted restrictions on foreign investment
| shenzhen 6. 5 + 1. 8 + + 0. 3 % + headquarter migration of technology enterprises |
Inflow of people continues
| 1. 8 + 3. 7 + + 0. 5 per cent + subway extension
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
V. Investment strategies and risk warning
(i) core regional values lowlands
Beijing: new district of haidian north (51,000/m2, lower than 8 per cent)
Shanghai: qingpura city (average price 42,000/m2, extension of line 17 of the auxiliary subway)
Chengdu: new zone of the zone (mean $26,000/m2, accelerated industrial import)
(ii) risk-proof elements
1. Policy-sensitive areas: alerting cities to restrictive purchasing policies (e. G. Hangzhou, nanjing)
2. Oversupply areas: districts where investment stocks are avoided for more than 30 months
Schoolroom bubbles: focus on the impact of policies on multi-school films (e. G. Guangzhou pilot)
(iii) recommendations on asset allocation
1. 30 per cent of the core urban areas (high resistance)
2. 40 per cent of new front-line urban potential (population + industry double-wheel drive)
3. 30 per cent of special cultural brigade cities (e. G. Dalit, ligang, need to focus on seasonal fluctuations)
Vi. Market adjustments for the next 12 months
(i) price trends
The national average price of second-hand houses in q4 is expected to rise steadily, with the increase in ring-to-ring ratio in priority cities narrowing to 0. 5-1. 2 per cent. The "structural rise" will be characterized by a premium of 5-8 per cent for quality assets in core cities。
(ii) policy orientation
The ministry of housing or the ministry of housing has introduced a policy of "reduction of second-hand house transaction taxes" with an expected reduction of 3-5 percentage points. At the same time, the "expanding of the housing tax pilot" will be promoted, with a pilot tax rate of 0. 5 to 1. 2 per cent for priority cities。
(iii) impact of technological change
The block chain technology has been piloted in shenzhen as a "real estate titling chain" and is expected to be fully rolled out to reduce transaction disputes by over 30 per cent. The vr house seepage rate increased to 65 per cent, reducing the trading cycle by 5-7 days。
(full text statistics: 1528 words)
Note: the data sources include authoritative channels such as the national statistical office, kerry, the shell institute and the ministry of housing and construction public reports, all of which are cross-checked. It is recommended that readers conduct comprehensive research in the light of the latest policy developments and regional development planning, with careful investment。
Analysis of trends in second-hand house prices in china: trends in house prices and investment proposals in 30 cities
Analysis of trends in second-hand house prices in china: trends in house prices and investment proposals in 30 cities
