In 2026, the real estate market was at a critical convergence between policy reforms and policy reforms, with the country’s downfall to 15 per cent in the initial home, a 3 per cent drop in the interest rate on multi-land mortgages, and the progressive development of the current housing sales system, with a series of liberal policies in place, which led to the idea of getting in the car next two years for many new and improved home buyers. However, a number of leading experts in long-term research on the real estate market, combined with analyses of core variables such as population, policy, market supply and demand, point to a fundamental shift in the long-term bottom logic in the current housing market, where groups buying housing in the next two years are likely to focus on three main practical consequences by 2030, not all of which achieve value added, and the risk of long-term passivity in blinding cars。
The first consequence was a significant reduction in the mobility of the property and the transformation of the house from “assets” to “real estates”, where replacement and realization were far more difficult than expected. According to data from the national institute of statistics and crèse, as of march 2026, there were over 778 million square metres of stock to be sold in commodity houses nationwide, while second-hand houses in key cities had risen for 18 months, and second-hand rooms in some of the second-line cities had exceeded 150,000. The goldman sachs study predicts that the average annual demand for new housing in china's cities and towns will drop sharply from a peak of 20 million to between 4. 1 and 5 million between 2025 and 2030, and that the number of home buyers continues to shrink. By 2030, negative population growth and increased ageing will further reduce the demand for housing, with the core group of 25-44-year-olds reducing by more than 30 million people compared to 2021, and the number of second-hand owners falling sharply. This imbalance of supply and demand is particularly evident in non-core cities, with three or four cities and ordinary municipalities with net outflows of people, oversupply of new houses, high stock of second-hand houses, and a general deactivation cycle of over 36 months. Those who buy housing in such cities in the next two years are likely to face a “sold, unsuspected” risk of falling prices by 2030, which, even if substantially reduced, will be difficult to quickly realize, property will be completely out of liquidity and cannot be revolving through the sale when funds are urgently needed. Even peri-urban and poorly-coated buildings on the second line of power may be trapped in a transit situation because of the excessive availability and lack of core competitiveness of homogenous housing. Only high-quality properties in the heart of the first-line city, the main city of the second line, will remain mobile and the rest will gradually become “unrealized assets”。
The second consequence is the increased fragmentation of property values, the continued devaluation of non-quality properties and the risk of shrinking household assets. The five-year housing price forecasting model, published by the institute in april 2026, shows that the national housing price will be extremely differentiated from 2026 to 2030 and will no longer increase. The first-line urban core, second-line urban high-quality sub-housing units, school wards and metro-houses, with a sustained inflow of people and scarce resources, have increased by an average of 1 to 3 per cent annually and have been able to largely win inflation. However, property in non-core areas of ordinary second-line cities, cities of the third and fourth-line cities and county cities will face a long-term decline, with housing prices falling by more than 20 per cent in areas where there is a continuing exodus of people and no support industries. If housing is purchased in the wrong city and region in the next two years, the value of the property will probably be lower than the purchase price by 2030, as in the case of a 3 million average three-way property, which could be worth only 2. 4 million by 2030, plus interest on the mortgage and the cost of holding it, the real loss will be more than one million. At the same time, the gap in the quality of housing has widened the division of values, and since 2026 the country has promoted the construction and sale of “good houses” and the complete upgrading of new homes in the areas of household design, green energy conservation, smart packages and property standards. The old, low-quality housing stock bought in the next two years will be eliminated from the market by 2030 due to poor production capacity, and the price gap with new housing will continue to widen. In the case of ordinary households, property accounts for more than 70 per cent of the total household assets, and once the property is depreciated, the wealth of the entire household will shrink significantly and the resilience of assets will decline significantly。
The third consequence is rising cost of holding, overloading mortgage pressures, and continuing pressure on quality of life and financial freedom. On the one hand, the expansion of the housing tax pilot has become a necessary trend, and the relevant documents of the ministry of finance and the ministry of housing and construction clearly state that the move towards real estate tax legislation and pilot projects will be accelerated during the “155” period, with the prospect of landing in most of the country's cities by 2030. Many home-holders and large-household holders will face annual housing tax expenditures of tens of thousands of yuan by 2030, with a significant increase in holding costs. Even if the first flat is exempt, the tax burden on the second flat and above will become a fixed long-term household expenditure, reducing the space for daily consumption and savings. On the other hand, long-term fluctuations in mortgage interest rates will affect the cost of home purchases, which, although in 2026 were in a low-interest-rate cycle, generally ranged from 2. 8 to 3. 0 per cent for the first set, but could not be maintained in the long run, and if interest rates were to rise from 2028 to 2030, the cost of new buyers would rise, market demand would be suppressed and second-hand house circulation would be more difficult. In the next two years, if they choose to borrow at fixed interest rates, they will bear relatively high interest costs in the long term; if they do so at floating interest rates, they will face the risk of monthly increases. At the same time, around 2030, the majority of the housing purchasers in the next two years are in the middle of their mortgage repayments, and the principal and interest pressure remains high, adding to holding costs such as property taxes, property fees, maintenance funds, etc., and a significant increase in fixed monthly expenditures. When income growth does not keep pace with the growth of expenditure, the financial pressure on households has increased dramatically, having to reduce spending on education, health care, old age, etc., and even affecting the normal quality of life, which has turned into a long-term financial shackles in order to improve the quality of life。
At the same time, the experts stressed that the three main consequences were not addressed to all buyers and that the core depended on the city, location, product type and financial position of the buyer. The scarce properties of the first-line urban core and second-line high-quality urban blocks are able to protect against the risk of fragmentation based on resource advantages; the initial suite is needed for self-sustaining purposes, without consideration for short-term liquidity and depreciation, and is less affected by liquidity and devaluation. However, these consequences are highly likely to occur for groups that are investing in home purchases, non-core urban purchases, and far-urban purchases。
While policy dividends supported the short-term warming of the city between 2026 and 2027, the real estate market shifted from “incremental expansion” to “stock optimization”, which remained the long-term tone. House buyers should take a rational view of the current market and move away from the traditional idea that “a house can grow with closed eyes” and take careful decisions that combine their needs, financial capacity and urban development trends. In order to be self-sufficient, priority should be given to core blocks of urban migration, with well-equipped and high-quality housing sources, and the ratio of loans to monthly supply pressures should be controlled; in order to invest, the value and liquidity risks after five years should be fully assessed and blind and windy cars avoided。
The golden boom in the real estate market has come to an end, and the decision-making in the divided era has become more critical and rational. Before buying a house in the next two years, think about the consequences of 2030 and plan for the long term in order to avoid the multiple dilemmas of shrinking wealth, lack of mobility and high cost, making the purchase of a house a real choice for improving the quality of life rather than a long-term burden。
