In the first quarter of 2026, there was a marked variation in the national housing market, with the increase of 160 per cent in the ring of second-hand houses in priority cities, nearly 90 per cent in the ring of new houses, a rapid rise in market heat and the beginning of a new cycle of increases, with a number of institutions and practitioners claiming that the housing price point had officially arrived. For those in need who have waited for many years, one is the anxiety caused by the boom in trade, and the fear of a high-level interface, and the market mood is ambivalent. In the first quarter of 2026, in conjunction with the data published by the national institute of statistics, the institute of middle-inspector studies, kerry and other authorities, as well as the policy orientation of the ministry of housing and construction and the central bank, there is a realistic basis for the recovery of the housing market, but it is not the point of a complete reversal。
Looking at the most interesting transaction data, march 2026 became the key node of the city's warming. According to data from the central institute of research and research, in march there was an increase of 128 per cent in the area of commercial housing in the country's priority 100 cities, a 117 per cent increase in the area of second-hand housing in the 20 cities, and a 1. 6-fold increase in the ring in some hotspot cities, which is also the central source of the “one-six-six-fold increase” in the market. By city, the first-line urban warming was most marked, with 19866 second-hand homes in beijing in march, almost 15 months high, and 31,000 second-hand house nets in shanghai in march, almost five years high. The cities of chengdu, hangzhou, nanjing, etc. Have been following the same pattern, with a 25 per cent increase in the ring of second-hand houses and a parallel increase in the number of readings and trades, and a marked increase in market activity. The market for new houses has also seen marginal improvements, with a focus on 50 urban new houses in march, with an area of approximately 11. 33 million square metres, an increase of 89 per cent in the ring, and an increase of 127. 1 per cent in the monthly sales interest of the top 100 housing enterprises and an increase of over 100 per cent in the performance of 7 housing enterprises。
In february 2026, the national statistical office (nso) indicated that the price of new houses increased by 10 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities and by 7 out of a total of 9 more than in january, with the price of new houses in the first-line cities being flatted and the price of new houses rising by 0. 2 per cent in beijing and shanghai. The second-hand house market is warming even more noticeably, with the prices of second-hand houses in beijing and shanghai rising by 0. 3 per cent and 0. 2 per cent respectively, ending a downward trend of 9 to 10 months. The price of 100-city new houses went down for 12 consecutive months, ending in january 2026, with an increase of 0. 18 per cent in the ring ratio and a continued contraction in february-march, with the market gradually shifting from a unilateral fall to a steady rehabilitation. In terms of the size of the adjustment, after four years of deep adjustment between 2022 and 2025, the prices of new and second-hand homes in 70 cities were withdrawn by 10. 1 per cent and 17. 4 per cent, respectively, relative to their historical peaks, market bubbles were squeezed and housing prices gradually returned to a reasonable range。
It is not an accident that the city warms up, but rather the result of a combination of policy bottoms, demand releases, and expected repairs. At the policy level, in 2026, as the year when the “fifty-five” came to an end, the key shift in real estate policy was completed, and the report of the government's report clearly identified “investing in the stabilization of the real estate market” as its core objective, proposing a nine-word approach to “incremental control, de-inventory, good supply”. The credit policy was fully untying, with the minimum down payment rate for first flats down to 15 per cent, the minimum for second flats down to 25 per cent, the maintenance of the lpr at an historical low of 3. 45 per cent over the five-year period, and a high rate of interest on initial mortgages of 2. 8 per cent to 3. 0 per cent through discounts, and interest rates on provident fund loans of 2. 6 per cent. In over 100 cities nationwide, restrictions on purchases, loans and sales have been lifted, the first-line cities have eased the requirement for social security coverage for non-household purchases, and shanghai seven has reduced the length of social security coverage for non-household purchases in the outer ring from three years to one year, effectively releasing the need for new citizens to purchase housing. The tax policy has been continuously optimized, with the three sectors clearly continuing to implement individual income tax refunds for replacement housing, and taxpayers who repurchased their own homes within one year of selling their own homes between 2026 and 2027 are entitled to a tax rebate to reduce the cost of improved demand replacement。
The demand side is characterized by a build-up of centralized demand, which has been declining since the second half of 2025, with some of the immediate immediate needs and improved demand being suspended, a concentration of policy in the beginning of 2026, and a rapid release of the backlog following the spring season of traditional home purchases. In terms of the composition of the transaction, the market is now dominated by demand, with secondary houses below $3 million in beijing accounting for 66. 3 per cent in march, an increase of 19. 1 per cent over the same period, and the supply in shanghai being dominated by low gross prices. The new market for new homes has been characterized by a much faster rate of household-type demobilization than that of large households. At the expected level, after four years of market adjustment, the expectations of home buyers for a continued decline in house prices have been weakened, data on the halting of the fall in the core cities have been released, market confidence has gradually been restored, moving from “waiting and waiting” to “reasonable entry”。
It needs to be recognized, however, that there are clear limitations to the current market warming, which is not a full-scale cut-off point, let alone a new cycle of increase in house prices. First, the exchange of warmth has a base effect and a seasonal factor, affected by spring holidays in february 2026, the market was at a low level during the year, and the march ring-to-season increase appeared to be alarming, but the same data remained weak. During the first quarter, the focus on 50 urban new houses was still 30 per cent lower, while the focus on 20 urban second-hand houses was only 4 per cent higher, and some cities were still negative. The so-called “mixed surge of 1. 6 times” is only the march ring data for some hotspot cities, which does not represent the overall trend in the national market and is not sustainable in the long term。
Second, the market is characterized by deep fragmentation rather than generalization. An analysis of the authorities indicates that the national housing price will maintain a “l-type flooring, deep fragmentation” posture in 2026. First-line cities and hard-line core areas, industrial clusters and well-connected areas are likely to experience moderate increases in housing prices, estimated at 1 to 3 per cent, as a result of continued population inflow and strong demand support. The three- and four-line cities and below, the depopulated cities and the non-core regions in the outer suburbs continue to face high levels of stock and insufficient demand, and housing prices will continue to decline sharply, projected at 5 to 15 per cent. Even in the same city, there is a difference in the performance of different regions and different quality housing sources, with a reduction in the bargaining space for quality schools, sub-news and well-developed properties, with some small increases in the price of housing, while the old sub-districts, peri-urban housing sources and poor household-type housing sources continue to be low and low。
Moreover, market conditionality has not fundamentally changed and long-term downward pressures persist. At the demographic level, the country's total population has entered a negative growth phase, the rate of urbanization has slowed, demand for new homes has been declining year by year, and the inflow of core urban populations, while supporting local demand, has proved difficult to reverse the downward trend in the overall demand for the country. At the stock level, there were 79. 998 million square metres to be sold at the end of february, but the absolute size was still high, with three- and four-line urban stocks demining for more than 24 months, exceeding the reasonable range. At the economic level, the slowdown in income growth among the population, the deterioration of the balance sheets of some households and the incomplete recovery of the capacity to pay and the willingness to consume for the purchase of housing have constrained the sustained recovery of the market. The relevant head of the ministry of housing and construction has repeatedly emphasized that the main tone of the real estate market was “stable” in 2026 and that the policy objective was to prevent the market from going up and down and to move the market from deep adjustment to smooth operation rather than to stimulate an increase in housing prices。
For groups in immediate need, in the face of the current urban warming, it is essential to be rational and not blind and panicful about the increase in turnover. The core of the homes to be purchased is to meet their own housing needs, not to speculate on investment, and it is important to adhere to a “house-to-house” approach and to plan rational decision-making in the context of their economic situation, housing needs and working life. Before entering the market, it is necessary to be well prepared to assess its own economic strength, to identify a budget for the purchase of housing, to set aside the costs of taxes, renovations, maintenance funds, etc., in addition to the purchase and down payment, and to ensure that the monthly contribution does not exceed 30 per cent of the household's monthly income and to avoid over-leverage leading to excessive stress. While the current down-payment ratio and the mortgage rate are low, the purchase of housing is still a long-term, large expenditure and needs to take full account of future income stability, changes in household spending, etc., to prevent the risk of supply disruption。
The selection chain adheres to the principle of “area priority, quality conformity” and gives priority to urban core areas, industrial estates, transport facilitation and well-equipped areas, avoiding loss of population, high-stocked peri-urban areas and non-core three- and four-line areas. In terms of housing quality, priority has to be given to household-type practicality, property regulations and medium-age housing sources, without the need to pursue large household sizes and high gross prices blindly and to avoid exceeding their affordability. The purchase process retains a complete chain of evidence, including purchase contracts, payment certificates, publicity materials, etc., identifying key terms such as ownership of the house, time of delivery, liability for breach of contract, and protection against transaction risk。
At the same time, market volatility needs to be viewed rationally, as the market is at a steady stage of building, and prices are likely to remain narrow, with no basis for rapid growth, and need not rush into the market. Continued attention can be given to choosing the right time to begin with, and to avoid being confronted with expensive and windy buildings. In the case of preferential activities and special-price housing sources introduced by developers, the risks associated with the lack of matching benefits, quality risks, property rights issues etc. Should be carefully examined。
While it was true that the building had been warmed up in 2026, the turning points were limited to local areas and stages, and the national market was still in the process of repairing its floors. The groups in need should recognize the nature of the market and abandon the speculative thinking of “surge and fall” to meet their own residential needs, with rational assessment and careful decision-making, without losing reasonable access to the market or being blindly caught up in house shopping. The smooth and healthy development of the municipality is a long-term trend, and it is best to buy a house without anxiety and to be self-appropriate。
